Proactive management for forecasting and troubleshooting

Proactive management seeks to stay ahead of problematic events, through tools such as causal analysis, innovative decision-making and planning analysis, in order to propose solutions to problems before they occur and thus deal with them agilely in the moment they are presented.

CAUSAL ANALYSIS

When presenting the concept of causal analysis, it is important to approach the subject with the appropriate perspective, that is, considering the manager's need to obtain results. A manager lives in constant struggle with the laws of cause and effect. When the effects reach the point where action is required, he must define his position regarding the events that are part of the cause-effect chain. If the effects requiring your attention are undesirable and cannot be easily explained, then causal analysis is the appropriate procedure.

This is not always as simple as it sounds. It is generally easy to recognize big problems as soon as they arise, but not the small, insidious ones that create intolerable situations.

When an undesired effect arises in an organization, the manager reacts, and he has three options:

Correct it immediately. Save time and correct it later. Adapt to your new situation.

The true meaning of the word correct is to eliminate the cause. If a problem deserves a solution, it deserves a logical and analytical approach, whereby testing and errors are eliminated, and a single course of action is obtained in response.

In causal analysis, it is useful to think that the problem is like an iceberg: what is seen only indirectly indicates its true size. Only through analysis, the manager can determine the size and scope of your problem. One of the most common mistakes managers make in this task is to confuse "symptoms, causes, and effects."

The following definitions serve to resolve this point:

Symptom: They are the perceivable parts of the problem, which reveal its existence. Cause: Identifiable events or conditions that cause something to happen. Effect: They represent the sequel or result of the problem.

The causal analysis is justified if there are three conditions in this regard:

There must be noticeable undesirable effects. Events must be out of phase compared to what might be expected. Causes must be known for appropriate reaction to these effects.

The problem-solving process must be defined as accurately as possible so that it can be solved. Just as good doctors constantly repeat the same diagnostic questions in their office, so administrators must ask themselves, when diagnosing any problem issue.

CAUSAL ANALYSIS PROCESS

To present the causal analysis process, a worksheet is used to tabulate the relevant data, as explained step by step.

First, the necessary data is obtained and organized to obtain a good description of the problem.

Identity (On which object was the defect observed?) Location (Where is the defective object found?) Time (When was the defect first observed?) Magnitude (How large is the object's defect?)

THE CASE OF THE TERMINAL

Here they pose a problem that arises at an aviation terminal. This problem helps to understand more easily these types of problems. 7 steps were used to solve the problem:

They stated the problem.Describe the problem:
1. observed facts, comparison data.
Identification of differences. Record of changes. Look for possible causes. Test the most probable cause. Check the most probable cause.

CAUSAL ANALYSIS CLASSES

The administrator faces the problem in situations where systems and their systems interact and interlock in complex ways, as well as the cause of the problems and their effects. Therefore, it is worth examining some of the variants of causal analysis that are used to solve problems in more complex situations.

There are 3 variants:

Source problem: Lower performance than expected. Projective analysis: The use of the reverse causal analysis process: from cause to effect. Causal chains: Hierarchical monitoring of cause-effect relationships, up to the original cause.

When dealing with a source problem, the manager must recognize that the standard causal analysis procedures require certain modifications, the main ones are:

Before starting an analysis, question the validity of the performance standards. Intensify the search for comparison data in similar systems but not the one studied. The change search step is eliminated, and the analysis focuses on the process of identifying differences.

Causal analysis is related to the performance of the surveillance and control function, as part of a manager's job. Here you often find a certain type of situation worth checking out. The reason for this interest could be a notable difference between performance and the norm, or the existence of conditions associated with the causes of undesirable effects; This is called projective causal analysis.

When a cause is detected, the immediate conclusion is that the expected effects already exist or will not take long to appear, the manager can find out a possible cause through himself, other departments.

A causal chain is a hierarchical succession of causes and effects. It is frequent in the causal analysis that the identification of the most probable cause only requires another analysis, focused on a lower level. Finding the root cause is the goal of causal chains. The process is the same as that used in the causal analysis. Here the difficulty lies in not losing track once the cause and effect chain has been advanced.

DECISION MAKING

At any given time, the manager must leave the analysis and take action. The type of uncertainty in decision making is very different from the uncertainty in causal analysis.

The time frame is the present, but I am faced with the task of choosing a course of action to be followed in the future, the dilemma is to compare the options and their respective effects, without having any certain data.

It will never be known with certainty what would have happened if another alternative had been chosen. The manager should also know that decision making means carefully analyzing the relevant data, before determining the best option.

Decision making involves a state of uncertainty created by the need to form a course of action that achieves certain predetermined results. This uncertainty can take various forms.

Standard decision, where there is a fixed and limited spectrum of options. Binary decision, where the alternatives are "yes" or "no". Multiple options, where there is an excessive number of apparently good options. Innovative decision, where action is required, but suddenly no appropriate or acceptable option is in sight.

STANDARD DECISION MAKING PROCESS

8 steps are used:

State the objective of the decision. The path to follow to solve the problem and eliminate its effects must be indicated. The expected end result must also be written. Establish criteria. To express the general criteria in more specific terms, they simply use each factor as subjects of statements that stipulate: "Whatever the selection, the factor must…" Completing these statements provides clear and precise definitions of the decision criteria. Classify the criteria. The process in which the criteria are evaluated and classified as limiting and desirable provides a clear picture of what a good option should be. Find alternatives. An unlimited and defined range of options is available. Compare alternatives. Eliminate alternatives by means of limitations. Identify risks.To properly identify risks, each option should be examined separately and contingencies that could affect the end result of the chosen course of action should be anticipated. Assess risks (probability and impact). Two factors must be considered in the risk assessment: the probability of the risk occurring, and the severity. These concepts can be useful in management, if presented in simplified formulas applicable to the manager's daily problems. Make the right choice. The manager forms a series of lawsuits. Any judgment must be logical, and that the decision is based on a combination of value judgments.Assess risks (probability and impact). Two factors must be considered in the risk assessment: the probability of the risk occurring, and the severity. These concepts can be useful in management, if presented in simplified formulas applicable to the manager's daily problems. Make the right choice. The manager forms a series of lawsuits. Any judgment must be logical, and that the decision is based on a combination of value judgments.Assess risks (probability and impact). Two factors must be considered in the risk assessment: the probability of the risk occurring, and the severity. These concepts can be useful in management, if presented in simplified formulas applicable to the manager's daily problems. Make the right choice. The manager forms a series of lawsuits. Any judgment must be logical, and that the decision is based on a combination of value judgments.Any judgment must be logical, and that the decision is based on a combination of value judgments.Any judgment must be logical, and that the decision is based on a combination of value judgments.

THE BINARY DECISION MAKING PROCESS

Here two diametrically opposed options are considered, the alternatives are generally competitive in nature and require a yes or no response, i.e. take it or leave it.

When a decision is relatively straightforward and the alternatives are similar and goal-oriented, the situation is fairly clear and the manager feels secure. However, in binary decisions it seems that there is no security; Binary relationships are related to a state of affairs, abnormal for the decision maker. The abnormal nature is imparted by the limits imposed on the choice, the restriction of whether or not to do or not to do, regarding alternatives, eliminates any other option; binary decisions must be analyzed breaking with its binary mode.

There are other reasons why the manager is at a binary crossroads:

One of the main causes of the existence of binary decisions lies in the hierarchy of responsibilities of the company. It does not present an attempt to manipulate, but rather is the result of a superficial analysis. For lack of time. Sometimes there are valid reasons so that the decisions are binary.

The existence of two conflicting alternatives implies greater effort to establish greater effort to establish the decision criteria.

MULTIPLE ALTERNATIVE DECISION MAKING PROCESS

Just as it is dangerous to be unnecessarily restricted when making decisions, so is it dangerous to make them in the opposite case. There are times when the number and variety of alternatives seem to never end. The standard decision process establishes that the administrator repairs a set of criteria and then compares the performance of each alternative with that of the others. This is impractical and less desirable; For this reason, it is necessary to modify the information processing technique for decision making. Although the multiple-choice type of decision-making does not occur very often, it is worth considering.

The first two steps in this type of decision are exactly the same as for standard decision-making: elaborating the decision objective statement and creating a list of decision-making criteria.

These criteria should be classified into limiting and desirable factors, and the desirable criteria should be expressed in terms of relative values. This process is particularly useful if the manager does not want to eliminate alternatives using only the limiting criteria.

In the next stage of the process, the necessary changes are introduced for this type of decision. Obviously, the criteria cannot be used to assess respective performance and see which of the alternatives best meets these criteria compared to the others. The task of comparing fifty or more alternatives far exceeds what a man can do. What is required is to apply a scale of absolute values to the list so that each alternative has a single score.

THE INNOVATIVE DECISION MAKING PROCESS

In innovative decision making, the problem of making a decision in the apparent absence of alternatives arises. In the search for alternatives (effective search) the main difficulty is that something of the two types of rational processes must be combined, alternating the creative process with the strictly logical one.

Because of this one is passing from one process to another; creative processes must be developed systematically, within a certain framework. After laying out the similarities in general and highlighting the differences between the processes, it is very important to note that a truly creative process is characterized by having a structure. All creative processes leading to a valid result dictate a specific sequence of group activities.

Before discovering several techniques that are applied in these cases, it is worth considering some general principles about innovation:

Establish a climate of innovation. Without freedom and the right climate, no method will be effective. In most innovation training programs, a great deal of time is spent teaching strategies and tactics to establish an enabling climate. Start with easy and available alternatives. Make improvements or corrections. Don't start with finding the ideal solution. Do not be under any illusion that the first idea you have will provide the correct solution. Using the ideas of others. You can come up with a more original solution.

CRITERIA OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUE

It is developed to apply it in the process of searching and analyzing alternatives. It is generally applied when none of the known alternatives seems to be appropriate. A fundamental principle in the criteria optimization technique is that the combination of the best features of the known alternatives can lead to the most effective solutions.

To apply criteria optimization techniques, a list of design criteria must first be drawn up. The second step is to take each criterion separately and find the best possible way to satisfy it. In this step, all criteria are momentarily forgotten.

The alternatives are not evaluated here either, the key question to use is: "What would an alternative that perfectly meets this criterion look like?"

The free development of ideas favors the search and development of partial solutions and finally leads to the finding of a viable and definitive solution. The various columns of optimization criteria must be evaluated for use in designing a solution.

Before combining the optimization criteria, tests of mutual exclusivity must be done. The next task is to compare each of the optimized solutions and find the mutually reinforcing ones.

When the criteria evaluation technique is used and more than one alternative is obtained, the decision maker should return to step five of the standard decision making process and proceed to compare them. If the use of the criteria optimization technique only produces an alternative, then the initial project criterion becomes the basis of the evaluation.

PLANNING ANALYSIS, MAIN RESOURCE OF THE PROACTIVE MANAGER

The manager makes the decisions, for the administrators the experience is very important to formulate a hypothesis of the causes; An efficient and forward-looking administrator is proactive.

The administrator must be prepared to solve problems that appear in the future, since they cannot problems, but have an alternative for such situations, since the future brings us two types of events: the predictable and the unpredictable. Every planning analysis process has two basic objectives:

Have a plan for the problems that arise and thus avoid or reduce it; Here is the serious question, What can go wrong when the project is in full swing? Knowing the options that can exist and choosing a better action that increases the possibility of having a favorable effect.

The steps of the planning analysis process are:

State a plan briefly, including the end result. It is describing the desired end result. List the stages of plan execution, study them, or indicate critical areas. Explain how a properly drawn up plan should be carried out. Identify problems and opportunities. Experience is used to make a good result of things and keep problems in mind. Determine causes of major problems. It is planning-oriented, finding the right measures to prevent problems and others to take advantage of them. In this an action plan is prepared. Have a contingency action plan. They are precautionary measures that you would not want to reach them. Have an alarm system for problems presented in the plant and implement the corresponding plan.Alarms should be provided for increased security in the event of a contingency.

To anticipate a threat, they must have a planning analysis worksheet with steps 4 through 6, and this planning puts the manager in an advantageous position to resolve future problems.

An example is that of Velex Laboratories, which had two plants abroad, and opened another in their country of origin. These laboratories were looking for a person specialized in food supplements, so the vice president attended a conference called »modern medicine, too many drugs?», where he should take note of the research and development in these areas; and return to someone qualified.

He meets a person who was easily spoken and very knowledgeable in his subject, 'megavitaminas', so the vice president has an interview with him, and observes that he was disabled, but instead, he did not care, since he would not find another person with his knowledge, and, after all, he stays with that person.

The planning analysis allows us to avoid the difficulties that can arise and to improve the existing possibilities with the help of many people outside the planning group.

ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION

This chapter tells us about finding the causes to be able to solve them effectively. The analysis of the situation are the cases that the manager has and classifies them by their importance, to which he establishes priorities before attending to them. They have to discover the causes, have some alternatives to implement a plan, and for this there are four basic steps in the process:

Identify and list the issues of interest: the effects that can happen are managed and others are created in order to improve their effects and protect the interests, so the manager's responsibilities are reviewed to see if they do not require attention. Issues of interest and effects are handled so the manager must know if the issue is important or not, and have a plan drawn up to resolve it. Administrators have an ability to detect problems and identify them so that they do not become crises, these issues can be listed in order from most to least important. Break down complex issues of interest: they are problems in general, which the administrator should separate them to solve one by one, there is an adequate method to break them down, which is based on key questions, which are:
1. What kind of matter is it? - little specific description (low base morale, personal relationships) Follow-up questions What do you mean by communication problems? How does this problem manifest? What else is wrong? Sometimes a different analysis is required (causal analysis, decision making, planning analysis). The breakdown is used to find a solution to the problem without wasting time.
Establish priorities: once the issues and importance have been listed, action must be taken, but before, analyzing each one using a method to report the most important, can be based on working tools to do it, and, some typical criteria can be:
1. - Effect (magnitude) - Urgency - Trend (growth) - Potential performance - Resources - Time to resolve (estimated)
- For an experienced manager, the most important are the first three.
Determine the starting point for the analysis: This stage is used to verify that the analysis really served each issue of interest. The situation analysis serves for clarification and to list the desired results in order of importance.
- Example: In a company there was a high rate of resignations, when breaking down it was found that they had to see: the expensive resignations of the recent ones and resignations of the professionals who had several years working. The factors were:
1. Lack of personal fulfillment. Lack of interest.

So when solving them there was talk of satisfactorily treating each goal of the workers. Another committee was in charge of the resignations of senior workers, and all this came to find the problem: the resignation was due to the high cost of living in that area, so plants were placed in places with lower cost of living, at the Performing the situation analysis, the company progressed over the years, with technical staff who were proud to work in that company.

ADMINISTRATIVE IMPLICATIONS

PROBLEMS IN THE AREA OF HUMAN RELATIONS

The causal analysis technique is used, where people are seen as the most important thing. To keep a subjective focus, it is better to use a "question method".

CHARACTERISTICS OF PERSONNEL PROBLEMS

It is a deviation in the expected level of behavior of an individual group for which the causal analysis is applied:

- Unpredictable reactions: when there is a change in systems, people have different reactions, so anticipating actions is very important. - Information quality: the person is interviewed to find out important data, since the information that is available is very Incomplete.– Prejudices and emotions: problems should be solved through questions, since someone can be harmed by another who is envious.– Undefined and unrealistic responsibilities: there are occasions when the instructions for carrying out a job are not clear. on the part of the employee which brings problems, but on other occasions they are clear but unrealistic. - Lack of feedback: it serves to produce better actions and is indispensable for performance.

The applications of the causal analysis process are as follows:

State the problem: describe the level of performance, specify it for comparison and see if it is correct and accurate. Describe the problem: only the facts observed to avoid confusion are described, example: "the employee is late". Identify the differences: look for the conclusions of attitude and motivation of the employees, because they are only conclusions and not concrete facts. Record changes: they are the ways of adapting people, since they accept it but quietly disagree, so it is must analyze. State probable causes: disclose or search for possible perpetrators, must observe job performance and conduct. Test possible causes: have bases that lead you to check and determine the problem. Verify the most probable causes: they must be formulated questions like: who ?, how ?, when ?, where ?,and thus discover the causes that originate it.

Causal analysis serves to find means of stimulation in good performance.

GUIDELINES FOR PERSONNEL ADMINISTRATION

It has five basic principles for increasing personnel management, they are:

Respect the dignity of the subordinate. Focus on the facts and not personalities. Use reinforcements to motivate. Know how to listen. Define the expected level of performance and communicate it to the employee.

MEETINGS AND EVALUATION OF PROPOSALS

Managers are not dedicated to solving specific issues, as they spend examining mail, interviewing customers and suppliers, etc.

The basic activities of the manager are:

Attending meetings Presiding meetings Guiding Advising Updating knowledge “Selling” ideas Budgeting Planning time Answering the phone Filling out forms Preparing and reviewing plans Pursuing your development

There are only three specific areas performed by the administrator:

Attending meetings: which serve for decision-making, many administrators say they are just a waste of time, which could be used in other activities. Therefore, the loss of time on the part of the exhibitor, which must be supervised by the manager, must be avoided. Preside over meetings: the person who chairs the meeting must try to ensure that these are fruitful, such that when the company is held, it presents a lost. Proactive management techniques are based on several principles that are:
1. define the objective of the board prepare an agenda (a plan) maintain control (where situation analysis, causal analysis, decision making and planning analysis is used).
- The meetings are neither good nor bad, but effective and not effective, administrative techniques, serve to create a structure to plan and control ideas.
Evaluation of proposals: to evaluate the proposals, it must contain two basic interests which are:
- the content: the data on which the proposal depends.The logical process: are used to reach the conclusion.These proposals must have logical analysis to know if it is true or only the fruit of an idea, the steps to follow to evaluate a proposal are:
- Questions regarding the proposal are used to know the reasons for the proposals. Proactive management has common sense, as it follows certain establishments to make the most of the manager.

TACTICS TO PERSUADE AND PRESENT IDEAS

They can be studied from two points of view:

- From sales agent. - From the manager who tries to sell ideas to officials.

TACTICS TO MAKE SALES

It is about advising all sellers with certain principles that are:

Identify and understand the customer's problems and needs Develop an appropriate sales strategy and only then offer the services.

Many organizations train vendors in causal analysis techniques in order to solve problems that arise. Not only causal analysis is used, but also decision-making and planning analysis. Decision making is basic to the counseling method.

The steps of the decision-making process:

Determine the stage of the decision-making process in which the client is and what is the statement of his decision: where he asks: Who ?, How ?, When? and magnitude. Establish customer needs. Why buy ?: Know the customer's criteria to make that decision, but not everyone knows why, so the seller then becomes an advisor. Present the alternative that best meets the requirements. established by the client, such as: limits and desiderata: exchange ideas and data between the broker and the potential client Present a risk analysis with a plan to handle any issue that could go wrong: the client must have a plan to save your values, and have contingency measures, and if you are productive and unsure you must make a decision.

TACTICS TO REPRESENT IDEAS

Many ideas are not put into practice because people do not know how to express them and are afraid of being changed because they think they are wrong, these are some steps to carry out the exposition of their ideas.

Preparation: reflect before making the "sale" of the idea, know the reason that prompts it, know who to sell it to, take preventive measures, know the consequences that it will bring in the long run. Exhibition: It has 8 important steps that are: examine the Presentation objective, try to be natural, have self-confidence, have prolonged eye contact, gestures must be natural, tell anecdotes and give examples, dress appropriately, speak naturally.

This serves to see the ideas of managers and sales agents, to know the risks and measures to take.

TRAINING OF PERSONNEL IN THE PROACTIVE ADMINISTRATION METHOD

Its main objective is to change the reactive thinking process to one of systematic information procedure related to concrete facts. Common sense was thought to be a quality that one had or did not have. The contribution of these techniques is to clarify ideas and lead to an objective result.

For Henry Mitzberg planning, control, budgets, etc. they were not the main functions of the administrator, he says that a requirement is to process the information (the fundamental processes of the proactive administrative method).

ROLE OF THE MANAGER

The manager is in charge of the whole model of employee behavior, he influences the quality of how things are done, it is like the father who teaches his son to speak and behave.

The manager represents himself as a role model, that is, what he says or does the employees will do, also influences as an example to follow, since if he arrives on time, others also, if he demands something well done, will makes; they must be in charge of the development of human resources, he wants to have a good performance of his workers.

LEARNING MODEL

The form of behavior of the individual is studied to know what role the manager plays in the learning process, it consists of four stages that are:

Unconscious incompetence: employees do not know anything for what their performance will be bad Awareness of one's incompetence: it is done by feedback, since proactive management techniques can be taught, where they are assigned specific to each and evaluate the ability by breaking down the processes. For development they must know about strengths and weaknesses; then they meet and compare results which can be:
1. Strong points: where it is observed that there is highly developed ability to excel in the future. Agreement on lack of skill: Where at some point it must improve. Disagreement in the evaluation: there is no agreement regarding the degree of development of a certain skill, where there are two possible situations:
  1. the subordinate in the stage of incompetence; may be right, and the manager may be wrong.Awareness of one's incompetence: each person's abilities must be taken into account through planned learning.Inconsistent competence: there are people who do things well. things without planning, which leads to good performance and satisfaction, to reach the level of inconsistent competition there are two things that are practice and effort. Everything learned must be practiced so that it is not forgotten, and for better performance you must strive to achieve it well.

For a development of the employee's skills, to carry out the situation analysis, causal analysis, decision making and planning analysis, it depends a lot on the manager, which is done by manipulating the employee's behavior.

ROLE OF THE STAFF DEVELOPMENT SPECIALIST

Specialists do very significant work in developing the proactive skills of members of an organization.

The specialists are based on five main training activities:

Identification of training needs: knowing the skills that each employee possesses through questions, only indicates a solution. Participants in the program: people are selected to identify the training needs they have. It has a training and development program where everyone is enrolled, the main thing is to identify individuals who can solve problems. Participant grouping: this group of people is grouped so that they are better taught to solve problems. time in the learning process: the time of the seminar should be measured, since if it lasts a long time you can lose interest, so it is recommended that it last three days and a review every 4 or 6 months until unconscious competence is reached.Implementation of training and development programs: this is perhaps the most important step since it becomes a true specialist, who must convince the official that this group should be taught, that is, I must "sell" the program to them.

THE ROLE OF INTERNAL CONSULTANT IN PROACTIVE ADMINISTRATION

To play this role, you must have a set of special and rare qualities. It helps the manager ask questions, clarify answers, find solutions, and make decisions.

There are two fundamental aspects to keep in mind:

It has a certain capacity, which is recognized and will make managers accept the help in process techniques. There are many possibilities to train to intervene where work needs to be done effectively.

Intervention method: they have tools to use at different times or situations, as it helps in managing the problem; it has the following approaches:

Subjective approach.- occurs when the executive-client and the consultant agree that there is a need to consult and that the analysis process started may be interrupted.

Time focus.- method in which the manager and the consultant continue the analysis according to an agreed agenda of interventions between the two.

Process development approach.- The executive - client and the consultant agree on the execution of each step of the analysis process to be used.

Control approach.- The administrator - client asks for help or advice, but waits for the consultant to take responsibility for the process.

Feedback approach.- The manager and the consultant agree that the latter only observes the work of a group of employees, without making any observation.

Approach to a meeting's agenda.- Its objective is to reduce the manager's dependence on the consultant's help. The consultant meets with the manager before the meeting to plan the agenda and study it.