Scenario planning. Definition
Construction of a number of internally consistent visions of possible futures, combining available information and future possibilities (drivers), and which are expressed as a narrative.
scenario-planningStrength Ideas
- Life can only be understood by looking back, but must be lived by looking forward (Kierkegaard) Scenario planning allows us to use the power of hindsight to transport us to better futures (Johnston)
Key Features:
- Creative process Social and interactive Must involve all stakeholders: Academy, State, Employers and Workers Explicit
The Essence of Scenario Planning
- I possible you identify with future alternativosToma in outlook account cualitativasToma into account the discontinuities that can be presentarEs a tool for the perceptions about future environments alternativosToma the form of stories that can express multiple perspectives on complejosLa events as a good scenario is not that we correctly identified the future, but has allowed us to make the best decisions in the present:
- Questioning assumptions, Developing fresh ideas, Reaching the "measure" of problems, Developing a shared understanding, Testing responses, Developing robust and effective strategies, if circumstances change.
Key points of scenario planning
- The number of scenarios identified The differentiation of the scenarios Identification of the possible scenarios Clear differentiation of the most probable scenarios vs. the most desirableThe extent of the scenariosThe power of storytelling
Stages of Scenario Analysis
- STAGE 1: Identify:
- the topic focus exercise objectives time horizon suitable participants
