This research pointed out in the study of a prospective plan for the company ILK INGENIERIA SAS, the objective is to seek and identify opportunities that arise both in the interior and exterior environment, analyzing and evaluating the factors that affect it. In the evolution of this project, a descriptive research was carried out where flaws were observed in the strategies and implementation of the concept of innovation as development of a prospective plan for the growth of the company in the sector.
For this study, the theoretical foundations of (BERGER, 1958) were taken into account, who formalized some of the great principles of his prospective approach. Starting from the principle that the theory has a minimum power compared to the examples and bearing in mind that the formalization of a method is the fruit of an effort to reflect on practices.
Likewise, (BAS, 1999, p. 186) conceptualizes: “By long-term thinking is understood here the function that deals with the formulation of the strategic vision of a country, territory or institution, ten or more years ahead), which proposes and orders its major economic, social, political, cultural, scientific-technological and environmental objectives "that is, companies must think of having a vision of their organization and a structured image of the future based on factors of gray and external, as in the case of technology.
On the other hand, the use of methods such as DELPHI is important in the process, as it says (ORTEGA, 2008, p. 38) “In order to define alternative scenarios, it is necessary to identify groups of experts whose vision of the different events is homogeneous and different.
KEYWORDS:
Consensus, Correlation, Descriptive, Scenarios, Prospective.
This research was born out of the need to forge opportunities viability from all perspectives, transforming traditional models with innovations specific to processes, applying the implementation of programs that science and technology offer us to strengthen the current passage.
This research carried out at the ILK company seeks to answer the following question: What strategic scenarios are required to achieve a better positioning of ILK in the city of Cartagena? The objectives were, Identify the key success factors that positively or negatively affect the Department, municipality, sector or company. Determine the strategic variables through prospective tools. Formulate the prospective strategic scenarios that lead to the realization of change projects.
The author (Godet, 1996, p. 5), states: “Uncertainty about the future can be appreciated through the number of scenarios that divide the field of the probable. …, But only in principle because it is necessary to take into account the content difference between the scenarios: the most probable ones can be very close or very contrasted ”. For this reason, the implementation of the tool that provides us with the prospective to establish possible scenarios is of vital importance.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
In this project, a descriptive research is carried out, where synthesis and typologies of the strategic components that are intended to be more effective in the administrative management of the company ILK INGENIERIA SAS are studied and analyzed. In the collection of the information, foresight tools were applied and some techniques and matrices (MEFE, MEFI, MPC and DOFA) were handled, to the staff (administrative department four people and operational ten people) of the company ILK INGENIERIA SAS, which agreed to prescribe the strategic plan of the company and also identify the environment, resources and capabilities of the organization.
RESULTS
In continuity, the following results of the identification of the internal and external factors of the company and the prospective plan carried out are exhibited.
External Evaluation Map of Influence and Direct Dependence Strategic Variables ILK INGENIERIA SAS.
Determinant Variables: They are found in the upper left area of the influence and dependency plane, they are the variables that according to their evolution throughout the study period become brakes or motors of the system. These could be propellants or inhibitors of the system. The objective is that they be propellants and determine the appropriate behaviors of the system. (Godet, 2009, p.57).
The variable of knowledge and market growth was presented in the ILK study
Environment Variables: Variables with little dependence on the system can be considered a decoration of the system, they are found in the middle zone on the left side of the influence and dependency plane. The objective is to complement its added value to the system. (Godet, 2009, p.57).
Did not show up in the ILK study
Regulatory Variables: These are the variables located in the central area of the influence and dependency plane that become a stopcock to achieve compliance with the key variables.
They determine the proper functioning of the system under normal conditions. It is suggested to evaluate these variables consistently and frequently (Godet, 2009, p.57).
• CONDECOS (Cost control)
• END (Financing)
Secondary Levers: They are the complementary variables to the regulatory variables, acting on them means making the regulatory variables evolve which in turn affect the evolution of the key variables. In the plane of influence and dependency they are located below the regulators (Godet, 2009, p.57).
• DESTECCO (Accounting and Financial Technological Development)
Objective Variables: These are the variables that are located in the central part on the right in the influence and dependency plane. They are highly dependent and moderately motorized, hence their treatment nature as objectives, since they can be influenced so that their evolution is that desired (Godet, 2009, p.57)
• INMERYMAK (Result research and marketing)
• FORES (Strategic training)
• DESINADM (Comprehensive administration development)
Key Variables: These are the variables found in the upper right area of the influence and dependency plane, also called system challenge variables. They are very motorized and very dependent, they disturb the normal functioning of the system, these variables over determine the system itself. They are by nature unstable and correspond to the challenges of the system. In short, they must continually have challenges that bring about change of the system to a more optimal level. They are the ones that keep the system lubricated. (Godet, 2009, p.57).
• INNO (Innovation)
• CERTCAL (Quality Certification)
Result Variables: They are variables that are characterized by their low motor skills and high dependency. They are found in the lower right area of the influence and dependency plane, and are usually, together with the objective variables, descriptive indicators of the evolution of the system. These are variables that cannot be addressed head-on but through those that depend on the system. These variables require close monitoring and follow-up to verify the effectiveness of the system in general. (Godet, 2009, p.57).
• COMP (Competitiveness)
• PRODEMANEM (Business management procedure)
• ALIANES (Strategic alliances)
• MANFU (Management and operation)
• CONEMPL (Trust in employees)
• TECPROOBR (Technology for construction processes)
Autonomous Variables: They are little influential or motor variables and little dependent, they correspond to past trends or inertias of the system or they are disconnected from it. In the plane of influence and dependence they are in the lower left area. They do not constitute a determining part for the future of the system. A large number of communication actions are frequently found around these variables that do not constitute a challenge. These variables must be aligned to the company's Lean strategy. It is suggested to give more value to these variables. At this time they are little influential in the system. (Godet, 2009, p.57). They were not presented in the ILK study.
Long-term goals
First long-term objective: By 2032, an expansion of administrative infrastructure and facilities is expected, as well as the incursion of new markets in the civil and metal-mechanical area.
Second long-term objective: By 2032 ILK expects to have a greater number of clients due to recommendations from them, in the same way it is expected that a large part of our client will make active use of our services at least 2 times in a month, so we are working on the implementation of a commercial area which allows us to achieve a customer base and achieve loyalty.
Third long-term objective: by 2032 ILK expects to have a productivity of 30% on its assets.
Fourth long-term objective: by 2032, it is expected to have the current and necessary technologies, machinery and equipment that will consolidate the processes and face the market changes with greater capacity, taking advantage of the opportunities presented.
Strategic Process
The prospective process to be developed has within its methodology the elaboration of the DOFA matrix, taking into account the internal and external aspects of the organization, from which a series of strategies are derived, in order to select those that will be implemented.
In the matrix you can see the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that ILK has, from this the following strategies are proposed.
Strategy 1: Diversify potential markets and carry out population needs studies that contribute to the design of projects with tools from the economic, political and social environment, allowing a constant adaptation of the projects to the variables of the environment.
Strategy 2: Improve marketing techniques to be clear about our market segment and provide you with a higher quality service
Strategy 3: Enter an organizational culture focused on both internal and external customers, with principles aimed at creating and constantly innovating business plans alternative and redirectable action.
The DOFA analysis provides a global panorama where we can evaluate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, giving it a strategic response, which will be evaluated and finally selected to achieve a positive impact on ILK.
Scenarios
To carry out this technique, 2 key success variables were taken, within which others of lesser value are reflected. In the case of ILK, the following scenarios were used:
SCENARIO 1: POTENTIALIZATION IN INFRASTRUCTURE AND CONSOLIDATION OF METAL MECHANICS
In this scenario it is assumed that by the year 2023, ILK has greater efficiency and transparency in the award of contracts and concessions by the State, since there is greater flexibility in the Statute of State contracting, modernization of the processes and procedures for awarding and intervening works, and has new financing mechanisms. However, ILK has little innovation in machinery and equipment technology, responding with a low capacity to the current opportunities in the sector.
SCENARIO 2: UNPRECEDENTED CONSTRUCTION AND METALMECHANICS
This will be the ideal scenario for ILK since it has greater efficiency and transparency in the awarding of contracts and concessions by the State and private entities, taking advantage of all opportunities thanks to the achievement of strategic alliances, in which the personnel and infrastructure have already been strengthened. the acquisition of new technologies, machinery and equipment, developing innovative and creative business activities with excellent benchmarking. With both a fully technological infrastructure keeping software and hardware systems synchronized for the effectiveness of business functionality, maintaining a high standard of competitiveness and market quality, being attractive to partners, shareholders and employees.
SCENARIO 3: I BUILD WITH WHAT I HAVE
In this scenario, the ILK company is acquiring technology of greater complexity to potentiate the services offered that are in accordance with the current needs and technological trends of today, with the appropriate personnel, in addition to having a quality, safety and health certification, maintaining a infrastructure with the capacity to respond to globalization thanks to the pro-activity of the personnel, however, the lack of a commercial area and the absence of new potential clients that allow the use of infrastructure and experience in maintenance and design - construction in the civil area of the organization, make the company not respond optimally to the needs of the environment.
SCENARIO 4: ILK MADE CEMENT
ILK in 2032 is responding to a limited group of clients that demand what is necessary, maintaining itself with tools of little relevance due to the lack of innovation, responsibility, lack of motivation of the staff and ineffectiveness in its processes, which generate market inconsistencies in the absence of alliances strategic in the development of the service portfolio little technology implemented in the processes. The high environmental demand and economic dependence (government laws) in the sector keep the business situation in uncertainty, being forced to respond desperately or insufficiently to the current changes, including making the decision to liquidate the company or sell it.
DISCUSSION / CONCLUSIONS
In conclusion, foresight today plays a very important role for private and public companies, in our country and in the rest of the world; Because it is a tool that can be used to create the desired future and be able to influence it, through decision-makers, thus avoiding possible threats, in order to achieve greater economic and social benefits.
Taking into account the current situation of the company, it can be seen that ILK is an organization that has excellent human capital, to carry out its processes with potential for growth, and dream of the possible scenarios in which it intends to be in the future, keeping competitive with market leaders and constantly innovating.
ILK is an organization providing civil and metal-mechanical services, with a work methodology that integrates both manual and technological processes, with a recognized list of clients who currently plan to venture into the metal-mechanical part with the aim of diversifying their portfolio of services. to generate a positive economic and social impact for the company.
Being attractive to the clients in this sector, since it has highly qualified personnel with experience in maintenance and construction design in the civil area. Knowing the market, the demands of its clients and working hand in hand with suppliers of high confidence, having high quality standards in services allowing access of these to customers.
Therefore, the final conclusions obtained through the elaboration of this prospective plan developed will be presented to ILK, a process that has been profitable for both the members of this research and ILK since it has allowed the organization to know its weaknesses., strengths, opportunities and threats.
The possible complements of the proposed strategies will help to mitigate all those weaknesses exposed in the development of the work, consolidating itself as a safe way to achieve ILK's goals and objectives, whether long or short, without neglecting what the mission is. organization's values and policies.
Acquiring recognition at the regional and national level, maintaining itself as an organization that integrates with technological processes and with excellent profitability, and is concerned with relations with its internal and external clients and their loyalty.
FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS
Below are specific recommendations for ILK.
The creation of a commercial area is recommended in order to publicize the services provided by ILK and attract new customers.
Investment in civil engineering machinery, mechanical metal is recommended, bearing in mind that due to the globalization of the economy and its constant changes it is necessary to be at the forefront and have the best technologies that allow it to be the first option in which they think people when they need engineering services.
The creation of a marketing department is recommended that allows them to be at the forefront and updated to the situation that is occurring at that time in order to counter arrest all possible adversities presented by the environment.
The implementation of a software that allows to align all the departments of the organization is recommended, maximizing the efficiency and the relationship of each one of them.
The expansion of ILK's facilities and work areas is recommended.
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