It is a proposal for a risk management methodology that synthesizes the internationally recognized proposals and the diverse bibliography of the subject adapted to the characteristics of tourism management. In the development of the proposal, working methods with experts and quantitative analysis methods are inserted to support the decision-making process.

The implementation of Resolution 297 of the Ministry of Finance and prices issued in 2003 has not always had sufficient arguments regarding quantitative methods that support decision-making in the five components of internal control. The proper application of the components of Internal Control implies a gradual insertion of quantitative methods for decision making.

calculation-and-risk-analysis

The environment or control environment is the structure that underpins the development of actions and reflects the attitude assumed by management in relation to the importance of Internal Control and its impact on the activities of the organization. The control environment establishes the measure of influence on each worker, based on their leading role in control according to the position they occupy. This is considered the basis of the other components of Internal Control, so you must bear in mind all the provisions, policies and regulations that are considered necessary for its implementation and development.

Internal control must limit the risks that affect the activities of entities. Through the investigation and analysis of the relevant risks and the point to which the current control neutralizes them, the vulnerability of the system is evaluated. The practical knowledge of the organization and its processes facilitates the identification of weak points, focusing on the risks of both the entity and the activity.

Control activities are procedures that help ensure that management policies are carried out, and must be related to the risks that management has identified and assumes.

Control activities are carried out at all levels of the organization and at each of the management stages, starting with the preparation of a risk map, knowing the risks, and establishing controls to avoid or minimize them.

The need to clearly establish the procedures necessary to carry out business policies is manifested; a procedure would not be useful if it is carried out mechanically, without the existence of a continuous focus of attention towards the final objective.

The information must allow officials and workers to fulfill their obligations and responsibilities. The pertinent data must be identified, captured, recorded, structured in information and communicated in a timely manner.

An entity must have a fluid flow from top to bottom and vice versa, as well as throughout the organization and ensure the accuracy, sufficiency and adequacy of the information related to internal and external events, checking that it is communicated in a timely manner. to the right staff.

Measures the quality of the control. Monitoring Internal Control allows you to determine if it is operating as expected and if modifications are necessary.

The permanent monitoring activities include supervision activities carried out periodically, directly by the different management structures, in order to establish mechanisms to report deficiencies and develop appropriate and timely corrective actions.

APPLICATION OF

The traditional practice in most of the organizations in the country is only limited to the application of the Risk Map to determine their relevance based on their probability of occurrence, significance in the efficiency and effectiveness of the organization and difficulty in their control and if it exceeds the high average of 9 points, the risk is considered relevant. However, the experience and knowledge are still lacking to achieve higher levels of precision in the significance of a given risk, which is extremely important as it involves a decision-making process.

Methodology application in accommodation entity of the Ministry of Tourism

The BelloMundo complex, a unit belonging to the IslaGrande Hotel Group, is an entity that, although it has its origins in the old Santa Ana Polo Company, as a result of the various structural and system changes that it has had, there is no historical data that allows the entity work on reducing and managing risks to Internal Control. In this sense, work on the bases of Resolution 297 of the MFP, which has implicit a series of important components and where the Identification of Risks constitutes one of the most important elements, in our opinion, to allow the entity to reach the category of control acceptable internal from any external control.

The proposal for a Risk Management Methodology for the BelloMundo Complex, based on a detailed study of the existing bibliography and knowing the organizational structure of the entity under study, which has a "proactive" character, since the management is willing to work on the existing risks to achieve the expected results, that is, create the appropriate opportunities and capable of enforcing the desired objectives.

This process is constantly changing, and identifies each existing risk, investigating in detail the necessary information for each area of result to be measured, this is done from the base to the top of the organization chart, interrelating ideas to know which are the most important risk factors that influence the results and objectives of the entity. The business risk management process must necessarily be fed back from the flow of information that manifests itself between the components of Internal Control. In our proposal we assume the one issued by COSO in 2004 in the document ´Corporate Risk Management-Integrated Framework´.

In this Model there are 8 key components and 5 of them are considered as primary activities of Risk Management. Objectives can be viewed in the context of four categories. Eight interrelated components. Activities at all levels of the organization are considered.

The main premise of corporate risk management is that each entity, for profit or not, exists to "create value for its stakeholders." However, all organizations face uncertainty… the challenge for management is determining how much uncertainty it is prepared to accept in its quest to increase stakeholder value.

We consider in our methodology business risk management as a process, executed by the board of directors, management and other personnel of an entity, applied in the establishment of strategies throughout the company, designed to identify potential events that could affect the entity, and manage risks to keep them within their risk propensity, provide reasonable assurance regarding the achievement of objectives.

Source: COSO. Corporate Risk Management-Integrated Framework

The proposed methodology is based on the COSO-ERM Model and has several stages inserted in the Risk Assessment Component that we describe below.

Source: Own Elaboration.

ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF STRATEGIC , OPERATIONAL AND RELATED OBJECTIVES

The objectives of an organization can be identified or implicit, such as maintaining a level of costs by weight of income. The overall objectives of the organization are represented and named through its vision and mission. The objectives and the evaluation of a SWOT matrix lead to define the global strategy of the company. At a later stage, it is important to achieve a hierarchization of the objectives, which could be achieved by applying a Saaty matrix based on the previous design of surveys applied to each Area Manager and senior management.

IDENTIFICATION AND CLASSIFICATION OF RISK FACTORS

Risk Identification Methods.

There is a wide variety of tools that can be used to identify the risks involved in an investigation, some of them are: Flow diagrams, systems analysis techniques, Group discussions or interviews, Personal experience of the official, physical inspections and previous audits, Brainstorming., Surveys and questionnaires, Consensus Method,  Study of foreign or national experience, trials, speculative consensuses, conjectures, intuitions.

At this stage, the application of the Consensus Method is very useful to discriminate the risks that require an evaluation.

STAGE II. Risks evaluation.

The evaluation methods are based mostly on the equation: Risk = Probability x Intensity, on a Risk scale from 0 to 100, they are valued in the bibliography under the following structure:

Probabilistic evaluation (P): Classification of the statistical frequency, which determines the future probability resulting from the history of events of the risk analyzed.

The fit of the frequency of events of the risk in question will allow the qualification of the degree of probability, which corresponds to a coefficient of valuation of the probability factor (P), from which scale values are noted, as an example. from 0 to 10).

Intensity Assessment (I): Although there are methods that assess the intensity of a given risk, in terms of the physical impact on people, facilities, machinery, the information that interests the risk assessor is of an economic nature, evaluating the direct, consequential and long-term losses that may originate the occurrence of a certain risk. Overall assessment Probability and Intensity.

The evaluation that provides a clearer global vision of the problems that may arise when a risk occurs is the one that interrelates the probability of occurrence with the intensity or severity of the effects.

The evaluation must simultaneously consider the variables, probability and intensity, therefore risk assessment methods that consider both factors are recommended, applying the basic equation for calculating risk. Another representation that illustrates the possibilities of global evaluation of a certain risk is the one based on the matrix summarized below.

INTENSITY	PROBABILITY
	HIGH	HALF	LOW
Catastrophic	9	8	7
Serious	6	5	4
Mild	3	two	one

In which the importance of risk increases progressively from the value of 1 to 9 and the treatment of risk requires progressive attention in the same direction.

Once the Classes of Risks that we face have been classified, simply using the Mosler Method, we proceed to establish the Global Assessment of the Relevance of Risks through the hierarchical model that is presented in Figure 2.x. Obtaining the priorities of each criterion is obtained through the survey shown in Annex xx and it is proposed to use the so-called modified Fuller's Triangle method.

RISK RELEVANCE ASSESSMENT MODEL WITH A HIERARCHICAL APPROACH

It is appreciated in the Hierarchical Model that the existence of four criteria is presented: probabilistic evaluation, evaluation of intensity in efficiency and effectiveness, evaluation of intensity in compliance with the legislation and difficulty for its control, knowledge of the organization and of the Saaty Method itself, since to that extent the most appropriate weightings will be achieved. The mode is proposed as the central tenure measure to process the matrices of paired comparisons.

GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF THE RELEVANCE OF RISKS

The global risk assessment allows setting priorities and serves as the basis for drawing up the Management Program where indicators and procedures will be essential as elements of control of the degree of compliance with the objectives.

RISK MANAGEMENT

In this phase, the preferential application links of the control activities to the central list of relevant risks are summarized, coming from the risk map and the key control activities determined by the Internal Control Committee and the Board of Directors.

It necessarily involves aspects related to the elaboration and updating of procedures and the calculation and analysis of indicators to evaluate risk behavior.

Preparation and updating of procedures

In this phase, the adaptation of the Hotel Group Procedures to the different processes and activities of the organization is required. As well as assessing the development of those that are necessary given the atypical characteristics of the installation. The activities that require specific procedures must be evaluated. It is proposed to apply the Consensus Method.

Calculation and analysis of indicators to evaluate risk behavior

It is very difficult to control and improve what cannot be measured. The use of a suitable system of quantitative and qualitative indicators that reflect, separately or in combination, degrees of progress, compliance, comparisons, trends, volumes, percentages, etc., simplifies the monitoring of the implementation of standards and control activities and also the internal control system and its effects on the efficiency and effectiveness of the entity.

Groups of Indicators aimed at the four macro objectives of internal control and that help measure the efficiency of the entity, measure the effectiveness of the entity, control resources of all kinds, verify the reliability of the information, monitor compliance with current regulations.

Subgroups of specific Indicators on:

execution of systems and processes and compliance with standards, production or service levels, compliance with policies, strategies and objectives, evaluation of progress and induction of actions or measures, analysis of results and performance, accounting and economic-financial data, and statistics, organizational, physical, technological and operational controls, execution of the information and computer system, development of the internal control system.

These indicators can be classified as "result" when they have to do with the conclusion or execution of a task, or fulfillment, and therefore reflect the past or show the present, and "driving" when they show or facilitate extrapolation and prognosis. of the future and serve as the main guide in making strategic and operational decisions.

Likewise, it can be assumed that for each selected indicator, the following will be available:

Period and accumulated calculation Comparisons with plans and budgets Comparisons with previous periods Comparisons with a base period Calculation of trends and estimation of future values

Each entity must prepare a system of indicators adjusted to its characteristics and adequate key indicators be designed, which would help to reduce the number of standards and control actions, concentrate and combine measurements, and increase the effectiveness of the internal control system. The following shows an example of how relationships between Risks, Control Actions, and indicators could be defined.

Table 3. System of Indicators.

RELEVANT RISKS	RULES AND CONTROL ACTIONS	CONTROL INDICATORS
· Inadequate preparation of personnel.	· Adapt the training program to real needs.	Average points in performance evaluation · Number of courses and trainees Average percentage of use of training
· Breach of service standards.	Establish a survey and interview system	Satisfaction percent Percent compliance with standards Number of non-conformities Amount ($) of claims
· Non-compliance with budgeted figures.	· Checking of plans and budgets	Cost by weight of income · Productivity Average price variation Inventory turnover Loss level Electricity consumption · Water consumption Percentage of budget execution Solvency, liquidity and other financial indices, conventional or proprietary

In order to support and develop these criteria on the potential of a good system of internal control indicators, it is appropriate to consider that:

It is convenient for every organization to have a set of indicators, not only accounting, adjusted to its characteristics and that synthesizes the key information on the behavior of its essential process.The number of indicators used should not be excessive with respect to the size and volume of operations of the entity, but not so scarce that they report nothing or very little on the essential matters for making important decisions. It is convenient to filter the selection of indicators through questions such as: What critical measures are required to manage each of the internal processes (especially the keys) of the entity? Where is it convenient to measure? What to measure? When to measure? How often should it be measured? How should it be measured? Who (s) should do use of this indicator?Which indicators would managers recognize as the best to help them make timely and correct strategic decisions regarding the efficiency and effectiveness of the entity? Building a good set of indicators for the internal control system takes considerable effort and time to design, teach them, implement and perfect them.

The internal control indicator system must be adequately balanced in the sense of balance between quantitative and qualitative; between indicators of results, preventive and inductive; between financial and non-financial measures; between the past, present, future; between the short, medium and long terms; and between the external and internal reference. It could be added that an attempt should be made to include an adequate mix of indicators that measure the efficiency and effectiveness of the entity.

The presentation of the indicators will be carried out in an Internal Control Board (TCI) according to the format set out in Annex 3.

The set of indicators adopted as part of the internal control system must facilitate the achievement of partial objectives, provide reasonable assurance about the achievement of the four strategic objectives of internal control, set out above, and evaluate the quality of internal control in the weather.

In the methodological process of construction of the dashboards (TCI) it is conceivable that groups of indicators, internal control or otherwise, are personally selected by managers, from the highest level of management to the lowest, in such a way that all measurements mesh vertically and horizontally. This may include the definition and incorporation of additional indicators that are convenient for a better execution of the work and / or decision-making.

It is important that the indicators that make up the Internal Control Boards (TCI) are dimensionally valid, calculable, understandable, relevant and useful for proactive decision-making, as well as that they have sources of reliable, updated information and an adequate form of computerized calculation., so that they can be obtained with the regularity and frequency that is required.

In order to determine the effectiveness of the control activities established to mitigate the identified risks, it is proposed to quantify the net or residual risk and qualify the protection offered by the control activities. Controls are evaluated based on their effectiveness to mitigate risks, according to the following range:

Control	Effectiveness	Description
Low	fifteen	Contribute something
Medium	6- 10	It is useful
Tall	11-15	It is essential

The net or residual risk results from the relationship between the degree of manifestation of the relevant risks and the established risk mitigation management. Annex xx shows the table that serves as the basis for calculating the indicators that will allow us to assess the quality of risk management. It shows the relevant risks determined, the level or degree of risk ordered from highest to lowest (valuation); the control measures established with their average categorization, and finally the residual risk value for each risk and a total average that shows the global risk profile are exposed.

To qualify the protection offered by the implemented control activities, the algorithm described below is used.

PO = EPT / EMP X 100

Where:

PO: Protection Offered.

EPT: Total Average Effectiveness.

EMP: Maximum Possible Effectiveness.

The meaning of the percentages and protection offered by the controls and the residual risk associated with each valuation range is as follows:

Not.	Rating range	Existing Protection	Residual Risk
one.	PO less than 20%	1: Very Poor	Very High (greater than 80%)
two.	PO between 20% and 40%	2: Poor	High (between 60% and 80%)
3.	PO between 40% and 60%	3: Insufficient	Medium (between 40% and 60%)
Four.	PO between 60% and 80%	4: Can be improved	Moderate (between 20% and 40%)
5.	PO greater than 80%	5: Appropriate	Acceptable (less than 20%)

III. Conclusions

The research undertaken in the ´Bellomundo´ tourist complex allowed us to understand the need to study and deepen the processes of identification, evaluation and management of risks in the Tourism sector, in this way the following conclusions could be reached:

The concepts of Internal Control addressed by the bibliography, from the COSO Report to Resolution 297 of the Ministry of Finance and Prices of Cuba, allow us to understand how a continuous improvement process is that results in quantitative and qualitative benefits for the company as long as it is achieved an adequate organizational culture. All of which requires the design of procedures for the identification, evaluation and management of business risks appropriate to the characteristics of each entity. The proposed methodology to implement business risk management is a tool that can be applied continuously and that gives full support to the decision-making process, as it indicates the elements to take into account to achieve a successful fulfillment of business objectives.In the proposed methodological procedure that allows to implement the methodology, adequate scientific support is achieved since traditional risk assessment methods are correctly integrated with working methods with experts and multicriteria. The validation of the methodological procedure allowed the identification and evaluation of risks relevant to the entity as well as to establish a group of indicators that measure effectiveness and quality in the management of identified business risks.The validation of the methodological procedure made it possible to identify and evaluate the relevant risks of the entity as well as to establish a group of indicators that measure the effectiveness and quality of the management of the identified business risks.The validation of the methodological procedure made it possible to identify and evaluate the relevant risks of the entity as well as to establish a group of indicators that measure the effectiveness and quality of the management of the identified business risks.

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