Forecast of per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Mexico, to support the need to use environmentally friendly products.
Summary
Technological innovation can support us in solving problems such as that caused by climate change. In this essay, ideas and basic concepts related to innovation are expressed.
Using forecasting methods, such as simple moving averages, simple smoothing, linear moving averages, and linear smoothing, we determined the one that allowed us to calculate the forecast of carbon dioxide emission per capita in Mexico with the least error.
Abstract
Technological innovation can rely on to solve problems like climate change generated in this study expressed ideas and concepts related to innovation.
Through forcasting methods such as simple moving averages, simple smoothing, linear moving averages and linear smoothing was determined to allow us to calculate the slightest error the forecast carbon dioxide emissions per capita in Mexico.
Environmentally friendly products, solution for climate change
Climate change, a topic that we constantly hear, and that is part of the agenda of various world organizations, including the United Nations, of which we have witnessed its consequences, through natural catastrophes in our world, but What are you doing to avoid the deterioration of our planet and therefore our life?
At the last summit on climate change organized by the United Nations in Mexico (United Nations, 2011), data on this effect were released, such as that the average temperature of the Earth's surface has risen more than 0.6 oC since the last years of the 19th century, it is also estimated that it will increase again between 1.4 oC to 5.8 oC by the year 2100, this represents the largest increase in any century in the last 10,000 years.
One of the great challenges that we as humanity have is optimizing the planet's resources and using clean ways to generate energy, since one of the main reasons for the increase in temperature is precisely the combustion of increasing amounts of coal, gasoline and oil, coupled with increased forest clearance and some methods of agricultural exploitation.
Due to these reasons, the volume of “greenhouse gases” emitted into the atmosphere, mainly carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, has increased. These gases occur naturally and are essential for life on Earth, since that prevent solar heat from returning to space, without them our planet would be cold and desert. However, when the volume of these gases is considerable and grows without rest, they cause high temperatures and modify the climate. The 1990s is considered the warmest in the last millennium and 1998 the hottest year.
An average person needs 130 cubic meters of oxygen per year, in desert places a juniper tree generates only 6 cubic meters of oxygen per year, which means that 22 of these trees are required to supply the requirement of one person; in jungle places a mature and large tree generates enough oxygen for 18 people (Rives), it should be noted that for every cubic meter of oxygen that a tree produces requires the same amount of carbon dioxide that transforms it through its leaves.
A very important fact is that more than 70% of the oxygen is produced by algae and other marine plants, however, due to global warming, there is a phenomenon of decreased amounts of phytoplankton, which are the basis of the marine ecosystem.
Trees help regulate temperature, which is why their great importance, since they reduce greenhouse gases that are causing the warming of our planet.
That is why, through the use of environmentally friendly products, we can protect the planet's resources and guarantee the existence of resources for future generations.
Innovation on our planet is a common denominator, and should be considered the trigger for the economic growth of a country.
Such is the case of the Global Innovation Index (World Intellectual Property Organization, 2012), which was established by world organizations in order to know the level of innovation in the countries; among other aspects, it measures the political, regulatory and business environment, as well as aspects of human capital and research, Education, research and development, in relation to infrastructure, it measures the science and technology index, energy and infrastructure usually; With regard to the sophistication of the markets, it takes into account credit, investment, trade and competition. In terms of business sophistication, it takes into account the knowledge of the workers, the links with innovation and the absorption of knowledge.
Global Innovation Index 2011 Framework.
Image 1 Global Innovation Index 2011 Framework.
Mexico in 2012, in the Global Innovation Index, ranks 79 out of 141 countries classified in this range, which motivates those of us dedicated to research, innovation and technological development in Mexico, to continue this process and more effectively, since we believe that through this, we will achieve what some futurologists point to Mexico occupying 5th place as a world power in 2040.
Global innovation index 2012
Image 2 Global innovation index 2012.
We consider this fundamental so that in the global context we take advantage of the knowledge, market needs and potential that we have in Mexican companies.
As defined by Navas, technological innovation consists in the application of technology to different aspects of the company, such as products, services or processes, in order to produce a significant novelty effect. For this reason, in this essay we present part of our experience in this field.
An environmentally friendly product is one that uses raw materials for its manufacturing. An example of new technologies are led (light emitting diode) luminaires that use less energy than compact fluorescent or incandescent, in some cases there are savings of more than 70% in electricity consumption, as well as fluorescent lamps. compact on average 45% of the electrical energy they use to function, they are destined to generate heat, while in incandescent lamps it is 90%, do you buy luminaires to generate heat ?, unless they are used in an incubator, most They are bought to illuminate, that is why it is important that we do not underuse our energy resources.
From 1999 to 2010, according to the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), more than one thousand one hundred fifteen million barrels of fuel oil, one hundred forty-one million tons of coal and 3 billion six hundred and sixty-nine million cubic meters of gas were used. natural to generate electrical energy, if instead of burning it, it had been sold? How many millions of tons of carbon dioxide and other pollutants are emitted into the atmosphere?
Forecast of CO emission practices that require a lesser amount of energy or natural resources, for this reason it affects the ecosystem in a lesser way than the traditional way of making them, as well as the final destination of such products, prioritizing their reuse, recycling or rapid degradation.
Currently, there are technological developments that allow satisfying the needs of people to facilitate or improve their quality of life, reducing damage to the environment.
Forecasting methods were used to determine the amount of carbon dioxide, which among the methods that were tested were simple moving averages, simple exponential smoothing, linear moving averages and linear exponential smoothing.
It should be noted that the simple moving averages method consists of calculating the average of n observations and using it as a forecast for the next period in the future. Every time a new data is available, it is included in the new average, canceling the oldest data. (FRANCO, 2012)
The simple exponential smoothing method, The argument of this method says that, in most cases, recent observations contain more valuable information about what will happen in the future, than old observations, therefore they should be given a higher weight when calculating forecast. (FRANCO, 2012)
The linear moving averages method is a modification of the simple moving averages method. It consists of calculating two groups of moving averages. What is sought with this double calculation is to attenuate the trend in the observations.
A first group of moving averages is calculated from the time series data, and then a second group of moving averages is now calculated from the group of previously calculated moving averages. (FRANCO, 2012)
The linear exponential smoothing method is used to forecast time series that have a linear trend. The basic concepts are similar to those of linear moving averages. A double smoothing of the values is performed, using the constant α.
For this reason, performing operations with the different methods, it was determined that the linear exponential smoothing model, with a constant (α) of 0.20, is the forecast that generates the least error.
Forecasts of CO2 emissions per capita in Mexico.
Image 3 Table for calculating the CO2 emission forecast using the linear exponential smoothing method.
Image 4 Forecasts of CO2 emissions per capita in Mexico.
Therefore, it is estimated that for 2013 we will generate 4.4580 metric tons of CO2 per capita, and if by 2013 it is estimated that we will have a population of 130 million inhabitants, it means that in Mexico we will generate 579,547,799 five hundred seventy-nine million five hundred and forty-seven One thousand seven hundred and ninety-nine metric tons of CO2 and for 2014, a growth of 1.07% is estimated over 2013.
Environmentally friendly products
According to the Fideicomiso para el Ahorro de Energía Eléctrica (FIDE) and the Federal Electricity Commission, they point out that 18% of the electrical energy produced in the country is used for lighting and if currently with the technology of fluorescent lamps compact known as energy saving lamps, 45% of that energy was underutilized since it goes to heat, the ideal is the use of LEDS luminaires, since 90% of the electrical energy they use is used to generate lighting.
Energy consumption to generate electricity in Mexico.
Image 5 Energy consumption to generate electricity in Mexico.
Another product that we also constantly use in all properties is paint and waterproofing, currently there are technological advances that have allowed them to reduce harmful effects on the environment when using them, since having formulas that use raw materials that In its extraction or production process, practices are used that reduce the emission of greenhouse gases and help reduce damage to the health of the human being who applies it and who uses it in homes, schools, offices, hospitals, etc.
So also one of the great concerns of the current world is water, on average there are parameters that indicate that a person consumes 200 liters of water daily in cities and 120 liters of water in rural areas (DSTA SA DE CV, 2009), in accordance with our Mexican legislation in number 29 Bis fraction II of the National Waters Law, the discharge of the used water must be done after treatment.
With the technological advances in wastewater treatment, they have been characterized in developing a treatment train that has the properties to grow in a modular way, that occupies less space than traditional treatment plants, that is easier to handle and that its acquisition price is also accessible to individuals, companies and public or private organizations.
With this type of technology for wastewater treatment, the reuse of already treated water for the use of toilets is encouraged, as well as the use of this water for garden irrigation, including for plants and trees. Due to their characteristics, they can be installed in places such as public parks, therefore, while in the houses connected to said plant, they are using water to wash clothes, dishes, bathe, among others, this water after being treated, serves to watering the gardens, people hardly notice this process, and also avoid using clean water in irrigation.
In schools, mainly in rural areas, the water supply is truly a problem, since due to the scarcity, they run out of the vital liquid, consequently the bathrooms, in most cases are not clean, with the new era of wastewater treatment plants, can be installed inexpensively and reused for sanitary use.
If we estimate that in Chiapas, according to the last census, we are 4,796,580 inhabitants (INEGI 2010, 2010) and if on average we consume 120 liters of water per person per day (DSTA SA DE CV, 2009), it means that we spend 210,000 million liters of water annually, and if we do not treat all this wastewater that contains pollutants, it reaches places such as the sea, rivers, lakes or water tables that also contaminate them.
These products are just some examples of the products that are classified as environmentally friendly, green products or green technology, it is essential that each one of us be aware that when buying, we must have the responsibility to prefer the products that affect the care of our planet and as a consequence it will also help us save financial resources.
In the new Political Constitution of the State of Chiapas, Article 77 fraction VII establishes that in order to eradicate extreme poverty, raise the human development index and the quality of life of the inhabitants of the State and the Municipalities that comprise it, the Powers of the State and City Councils, in the sphere of their competence, must establish and implement public policies in order to achieve the Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations Development Program, and that one of its goals is: VII. Guarantee the sustainability of the environment and promote the restoration of renewable natural resources, access to drinking water, sanitation, basic services, and reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.
We must commit ourselves, if we want to restore the damage done to our planet to reconsider our habits and customs conscientiously, in order to reduce consumerism and improve our culture of taking advantage of energy and natural resources, it is time to take action on the matter.
As we appreciate, the key to achieving economic, social and sustainable development is technological innovation and in Mexico, we have the right people and links in other countries that allow us to take advantage of knowledge and experience to generate better products and services.
Conclusions
The forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions in Mexico are alarming, which is why we must generate public policies that affect the reduction of these gases that affect climate change.
Global technological advances are changing our way of life, today, offices without internet seem inoperative, a day without a cell phone for some people can be fatal, business operations without computer systems would take longer without being carried out.
Traditionally in Latin American peoples, it has been expected that other countries are the ones that generate innovation and develop technology, which is why the importance of trusting our technology, our creativity.
This work shows examples of innovative products that have been developed with scientific research, innovation and technological development in Mexico and especially in Chiapas.
Bibliography
- DSTA SA DE CV. (2009). Estimation of water consumption in Mexico DSTA SA DE CV. (2009). Consumption protocol per person in each room for Keeper.INEGI 2010 sewage treatment plants. (2010). POPULATION CENSUS 2010.Logsdon, A. (June 1, 2009). Intuition Theory and Its Origins. United States of America.National Aeronautics and Space Administration. (September 22, 2011). Lunar and Planetary Science. Retrieved on July 2, 2012, from Moon fact sheet: http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/planets/moonpage.htmlRives, K. (sf). DIGITAL IIP. Retrieved on July 17, 2012, from http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/spanishRodríguez, AB (June 2003). Sphinx. Retrieved on 07/04/2012, from The cycles of the moon: United Nations. (2011). Framework Convention on Climate Change.World Intellectual Property Organization. (2012). Global Innovation Index 2012. WIPO.
