Several times we have said that it is not necessary to attend to what the countries say during the 15 days that the Climate Change Conferences (COP) are held, but what they do during the rest of the year. In this analysis we will focus on what Europeans are doing in the field of natural gas.
Natural gas is a hydrocarbon of fossil origin, a contributor to the greenhouse effect. Its main and almost only component is methane. This gas is present in the atmosphere in a proportion that, although it is 220 times lower than that of carbon dioxide, its global warming potential is 23 times higher.
It is of interest in this study to analyze five European gas pipelines with a short time in service, under construction or in the projection or discussion stage. These mega-systems have the capacity to transport billions of cubic meters of gas per year to the European continent.
The investments needed to build these gas pipelines are billions of dollars. On the other hand, there is little time left to begin dismantling greenhouse gas emissions to comply with the Paris Agreement. It is difficult to believe that the countries involved are willing to lose the great capital that they have and will put into play in the coming years.
Likewise, it is hard to think that countries that earn money by allowing tubes to pass through their territory are easily willing to stop receiving these rents. Then there are those who are in turn redistributors of gas to other countries, through which they make good profits.
Europe is a gigantic natural gas consumer, a gas-dependent, and it does whatever it takes to guarantee its energy security, largely through the gas it receives from Russia.
Russia is a long-standing supplier of natural gas to Europe, whose history dates back to the time of the Soviet Union, from the mid-1980s. At that time, the construction of the Siberian gas pipeline was completed, which, after traveling almost five thousand kilometers, it flowed into Germany. Business between Berlin and Moscow has a long history, as does the supply of Russian gas to Europe.
Germany is interested in increasing Russian gas imports in the coming years, due to its decision to decommission all its nuclear power plants by 2021, in addition to closing its coal mines. These two decisions will make German energy needs increase its dependence on Russian gas to 51% from 2021.
Here are the most important natural gas pipelines in Europe:
Nord Stream
Its first branch was inaugurated in November 2011 by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Russian President Dimitri Medvedev. Construction of the second branch began in May 2011 and gas transportation began in October 2012. The capacity of this northern European system exceeds 55,000 million cubic meters of gas per year.
Both branches run side by side through 1,224 kilometers of underwater pipelines, along the bed of the Baltic Sea. The cost of the largest energy infrastructure in Europe, until then, was 7.3 billion euros. Russian energy giant Gazprom owns 51% of Nord Stream.
Nord Stream-2
This gas pipeline is currently under construction. For the most part it will run parallel to the Nord Strem, that is, from Russia to northern Germany along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. Like its twin, it will transport 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year, an amount that could double to 110 billion cubic meters. The first branch will be completed by the end of 2019 and the second by the end of 2020, just as the Paris Agreement enters into force. The total cost of the work will be 10 billion euros. Part of the gases will be distributed by Germany to other European countries.
Turk Stream
The Turk Stream is the southern gas pipeline, replacing the South Stream, canceled due to some controversies. With a cost of 7,000 million euros and more than 900 kilometers, it will have two parallel pipelines like its counterparts in the north. It will come into operation in 2019 and its total capacity will be 35 billion cubic meters of gas per year. It will depart from Russia and its route will be the bed of the Black Sea. One of the branches will supply Turkey and the other will be divided into two pipelines that will go to Greece and Bulgaria. This country announced that it will build a new gas pipeline of almost 500 kilometers that will connect with the Turk Stream. Italy has also shown interest in acquiring part of this fuel.
The Israeli gas pipeline
The Israeli project, shared with Cyprus and Greece, will involve an investment of 7,000 million euros. It will connect the gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean with the European continent. It will be formalized in early 2019. It is the deepest and longest underwater gas pipeline in the world at 2,000 kilometers in length. Construction will take about six to seven years. The project is framed within the diversification policy of the European Union, largely dependent on Russia.
Nord Stream-3?
The announcement of this gas pipeline seems only a test balloon to gauge opinions. It was launched by the vice president of Gazprom. Perhaps it is based on projections that indicate a drastic decline in European gas production.
"According to experts from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, by 2020 gas extraction in the EU will drop from 256,000 million to 212,000 million cubic meters per year, and by 2030 -to 146,000 million cubic meters…".
Conclusions
At first glance, the picture described in this article seems bleak. But if we analyze it carefully, and become aware of some additional information, which we will give below, it will be seen that the situation is not as dark as it seems.
First of all, it should be noted that the government of the Netherlands decided to reduce gas extraction from 2022 and stop it in 2030 to comply with climate agreements. Norway, the second largest European gas exporter, will produce less in the future for the same reason. By drastically reducing fossil fuel production, both countries are determined to migrate to clean energy systems. This is good news and an excellent example for other European countries and the world.
Also good news is Germany's decision to close its nuclear power plants by 2021. In the wake of the Fukushima accident in 2011, Chancellor Angela Merkel ordered the closure of all 17 plants in the country, which have largely been disconnected.
The same has happened with coal, of which Germany was the fourth largest producer in the world, as reported by Mundo Minero on 11-12-2014. Despite this, the German country has just closed its last mine, as DW called it, on 12-21-2018: "Germany says goodbye to coal mining after 200 years." And then he reported: “This Friday, Germany is experiencing the end of coal mining with a closing ceremony at the Prosper-Haniel mine in the town of Bottrop, in which the miners will symbolically deliver the last piece of coal to the German president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier ”.
It is fair to recognize that it is not easy to make these mega-decisions and even less to dispense with two important power generating sources in just a decade.
This explains the large volumes of natural gas that the Germans are importing. Obviously they do it to cover the energy gaps left behind both closures. But, from the antecedents that we saw, we can infer their willingness to travel the path towards a more environmentally responsible society. It would be expected then that the increase in the use of natural gas would be transitory, as long as it manages to migrate its entire economy to clean energy.
Going from old to new energies is not like changing the TV channel. It requires a lot of strategy, logistics and will. Germany has given clear signs of being able to deal with all three. It seems that it wants to become one of the first green countries. As the locomotive nation of the European economy, let us bet that other countries follow suit.
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