There is no evidence on the relationship between hurricanes and global warming, but there are suspicions based on true facts
Opinions are mixed about the relationship between global warming and hurricanes. So far no evidence has been found to support such a relationship. Every time an extraordinary phenomenon occurs that is believed to be related to climate change, some preceding fact comes to light, many times that occurred 50, 100 or more years ago, when global warming, the main factor in modifying the climate, was not a factor. topic. However, with the recent Hurricane Irma (Sep-2017), an event did occur that had never happened. For the first time a cyclone acquired category 5 in the Atlantic Ocean, before reaching the Caribbean.As if that were not enough, the phenomenon was repeated in the same month through Hurricane María. This unprecedented pair of category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic has raised suspicions that the intensification of the hurricanes does have to do with global warming.
The opinion of scientific authorities on the matter
The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), which works in cooperation with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), of the United States, and whose mission is “to promote scientific understanding of the climate and its natural and anthropogenic variations and impacts, as well as improving NOAA's predictive capabilities through the development and use of computer models of the Earth System ”, ruling that“ it is premature to conclude that human activities - and in particular greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming - already have had a detectable impact on the Atlantic hurricane or global tropical cyclonic activity.
What these authorities say about the intensification of hurricanes in the future
The aforementioned institutes affirm that "anthropogenic warming at the end of the 21st century will probably make tropical cyclones more intense throughout the world (…)" and refer to a model that projects an increase between 2% and eleven%. And they add that "this change would imply an even greater percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming that the size of the storms would not be reduced. " Which is not good news and requires paying more attention to the Paris Agreement, and especially to its strict implementation.
What is a hurricane and how does it originate?
A hurricane is a cyclone, a wind of great force that forms a whirlwind and spins in large, fast circles. For a cyclone to be classified as a hurricane, it must have at least a rotation speed of 119 km / h or 74 mph. In general, a hurricane originates in the tropics and, from its formation, in most cases, it begins to expand its diameter and speed. These cyclones begin when a series of electrical storms move over the warm waters of the oceans. The hot air from the storm combines with the heat from the water's surface and begins to rise.This produces a low pressure on the sea surface, and winds circulating in opposite directions cause the storm to begin to rotate. The rise of the warm air begins to affect the high pressure in the highest areas of the atmosphere, causing that pressure to decrease.As a result, the air rises faster and faster, drawing in more warm air from the sea surface and sucking in cooler, drier air from above, pushing it down. As the storm moves over the water, it is nourished by more moisture and heat. Wind speed increases as air is drawn in through the low pressure center. After a while, the tropical depression becomes a tropical storm and finally a hurricane and the eye is formed, a center of calm winds, surrounded by a wall of intense winds and storms that produce large bands of precipitation.
Differences between a tropical depression, a tropical storm, a hurricane and a typhoon
A tropical depression is a tropical cyclone with sustained surface winds less than 17 meters per second or 63 km / h or 39 mph. A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone with sustained surface winds greater than 17 meters per second, that is, greater than 63 km / h or 39 mph. To be classified as a hurricane, you must develop a speed of at least 119 km / h or 74 mph.
Origin and utility of the Saffir-Simpson scale
The Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale is a table that classifies tropical cyclones according to wind intensity, developed in 1969 by civil engineer Herbert Saffir, a member of a UN commission. The scale consists of five levels, based on the speed of the winds, also related to damage to buildings. Saffir yielded the scale to the National Hurricane Center of the United States. Some time later, Simpson, director of said entity, improved the scale by adding effects of waves and floods. However, the Saffir-Simpson scale does not take into account the amount of precipitation or the location of the winds, which means that a Category 3 hurricane that hits a large city can cause more damage than a Category 5 hurricane than affect an open or sparsely populated area.
Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale
Category 1: 119-153 km / h - 74-95 mph / No damage to building structures.
Category 2: 154-177 km / h - 96-110 mph / Damage to roofs, doors and windows.
Category 3: 178-209 km / h - 111-130 mph / Structural damage in small buildings.
Category 4: 210-249 km / h - 131-155 mph / Widespread damage to protective structures.
Category 5: 250+ km / h - 156+ mph / Complete roof destruction on some buildings.
The pilots, anonymous heroes who fly into the eye of the hurricanes
To measure the speed of a hurricane, “hurricane hunter” planes are used, whose pilots travel to the eye of the hurricane and drop small probes to make these measurements. NASA has aircraft with a flight range of more than 28 hours, which can rise up to 18 km in height, from where they descend into the eye of the storm to release said devices. These are cylindrical in shape, about 30 cm by 15 cm, which can measure a series of values in addition to the temperature and intensity of the wind. These data are collected by equipment installed in the aircraft, which process the data and send it in real time to the National Hurricane Center for publication and location on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
The method of choosing the names of hurricanes has changed over time
At the beginning of the 19th century, hurricanes were named after the saint of the day the cyclone manifested its greatest devastation. At the end of the 19th century, the Australian meteorologist Clement Wragge baptized one of these storms with a feminine name, although keeping only biblical names. In 1953, the United States decided to choose any name, but always a woman's. In 1979, the World Meteorological Organization and the United States Meteorological Service, to avoid problems with feminists, decided to alternate female and male names and thus ended the sexist controversy. Since then, a list has been prepared each year, which is repeated every 6 years, in alphabetical order, beginning each year with the letter "A". So, we could have: Alejandro, Betty, Carlos, Daniela, Esteban, etc. Finally,there is an agreement to exclude the names of catastrophic cyclones, which have caused great deaths and devastation.
The most devastating hurricanes
Hurricane Andrew, in 1992, has been one of the most devastating hurricanes in the United States. It lasted 12 days and previously affected the Bahamas, where it formed as a tropical storm. Then it went to the state of Florida and from there to Louisiana, reaching category 5. Homestead was the city most affected by the cyclone, with winds of up to 260 km / h or 162 mph, with the destruction of 25,000 houses and damage to another 100 thousand. The economic losses amounted to 40,000 million dollars. Hurricane Katrina, in August 2005, caused more than 1,200 deaths in the United States, devastating the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico, between Florida and Texas. The highest number of casualties was recorded in New Orleans, flooded as its levee system collapsed. Almost the entire city, as well as some peripheral areas, were flooded for several weeks.Katrina damages were estimated at $ 108 billion. The recent hurricanes Irma and María, both category 5, devastated the islands of Barbuda, Anguilla, San Martin, Turks and Caicos and Puerto Rico where the material damage has been almost 100%, whose amount and number of victims and victims they have not yet been quantified to date. But they also caused extensive damage to almost all the Caribbean islands, including the Dominican Republic and Cuba.But they also caused extensive damage to almost all the Caribbean islands, including the Dominican Republic and Cuba.But they also caused extensive damage to almost all the Caribbean islands, including the Dominican Republic and Cuba.
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