1. Introduction
Following the call of the "National Coordinator for the Reduction of Disasters of Natural or Caused Origin" (CONRED), which presented on October 4 of the year two thousand and seven, by making available to consulting companies the "Terms of Reference for the Consultancy for the Identification of Disaster Risk Scenarios and their Zoning in the Municipalities that make up the Naranjo and Suchiate River Basins ”.
La Ceiba Consulting Company, made up of a team of high professional level, presents the "Technical and Financial Proposal" for evaluation by the qualifying board established for a process that we fully trust to be developed in a transparent manner and measuring technical, logistical and academic studies of each bidding company
Considering that the National Coordinator for the Reduction of Disasters of Natural Origin or Caused -CONRED-, was created according to Decree Law 109-96 and is made up of agencies and entities of the public sector and the private sector. In its Article 3 it establishes the purposes, these being:
- Establish mechanisms, procedures and norms that promote disaster reduction, through inter-institutional coordination throughout the national territory Organize, train and supervise communities at the national, regional, departmental, municipal and local levels to establish a culture in disaster reduction, with clear actions, before, during and after its occurrence through the implementation of organization, training, information, dissemination programs and others that are considered necessary Implement in public institutions its organization, policies and actions to improve the capacity of its inter-institutional coordination in the areas related to disaster reduction of its knowledge and competence.
The development of this consultancy intends to comply with the previous guidelines, to achieve the development of "risk scenarios and zoning of critical areas" (communities and / or municipalities) that allow guiding key actors, civil society and government institutions contingency plans that allow to mitigate the possible social, economic and environmental damages of the territories that may be affected.
If we consider that Central America is an area with a high incidence of natural phenomena that normally cause disasters of great magnitude with the consequent loss of human lives, material values, interruption of economic growth and deterioration of environmental environments, as history allows us to remember the see the past and what happened in the Rio Naranjo and Suchiate Basins due to Hurricane Stan.
Statistically, the phenomena that show the highest degree of recurrence in the region are those of a hydrometeorological nature (floods, tropical storms and hurricanes), mass landslides, volcanic activity and seismic activity, which is why a large amount has been invested in recent years of resources in mitigation measures and reduction of the damages they cause.
One of the most important tools for the design and formulation of risk scenarios, policies and strategies that allow the reduction of vulnerability and the level of risk of the population is the zoning of the threats through the elaboration of regional, municipal and community maps., which can be used by urban planners, governments and local authorities for the regulation of land use and the elaboration of Development Plans.
Considering CONRED models of research, planning and operationalization, based on approaches of "sustainable management of hydrographic basins", will allow a more comprehensive vision by local actors, which will strengthen the links that allow the implementation of plans in the medium term. contingency and development, which reduce damage to a minimum caused by natural or man-made disasters.
The planning vision proposed by the "La Ceiba Consulting Company" is based on the experience of conceiving the research and territorial planning models from a regional platform, based on the potentials that the hydrographic basins have, as a means of developing models that can support the social viability of the programs, projects and activities.
When evaluating that a large part of the success of the planning of the scenarios and the municipal zoning depends on considering the socio-environmental component, we suggest the development of this consultancy not only within the hydrographic basin approach but also the future constitution of a “Region of Conservation and Sustainable Development ”–RECODES- (See Annex 2).
RECODES is conceptualized as “an additional mechanism to sustain the long-term conservation of hydrographic basins. This concept is built from many and varied experiences developed in Latin America and other parts of the world, related to the conservation of biodiversity, the management of Protected Natural Areas, rural socio-economic development, and the active and permanent participation of the human communities, government institutions, local, national and international NGOs ”.
2. Objectives
2.1 General objective
Establish disaster risk scenarios in the Naranjo and Suchiate river basins, specifically identifying the areas of floods and landslides caused by seismic movements and / or soil saturation due to rainfall.
2.2 Specific objective
- Develop a methodology that enables the analysis and zoning of threats and risks to floods and landslides due to seismic movements and / or soil saturation due to rains, in the Naranjo and Suchiate river basins, making use of the technology of the Geographical Information Systems, and territorial strategic analyzes that allow to establish in a quantitative and qualitative way the risk scenarios and their respective zoning. Identify the potential areas to be affected by floods and landslides in the Naranjo and Suchiate river basins. As well as the elements that are at risk in the communities and municipalities located within the basin. Contribute to the regulation in the use of the land that avoids the settlements in channels and areas with high-risk slopes,promoting "land use" measures that are considered by local authorities in urban planning processes at urban, peri-urban and rural levels. Prepare maps of threats to flooding and landslides in the Naranjo and Suchiate river basins. Identify the elements under risk in communities settled in risk areas Provide a tool that enables decision-making for risk management in communities and municipalities in the basins Identify priority areas for management plans and contingencies Initiate the process of involvement of the communities and municipalities that make up the study area in the process of identifying threats and elements at risk.
3. Analysis and scope of the terms of reference
When conducting a preliminary analysis of the requirements and approaches established within the framework of "terms of reference", we must establish that the "approach to sustainable management of hydrographic basins" is a viable guideline to achieve the bioregional integration of the administrative divisions of the Municipalities, considering that the watersheds not only contribute to the socioeconomic development of the territory, but also due to intrinsic and anthropogenic conditions, they are vulnerable due to the same characteristics that make them of vital importance for human development.
Starting from a basic definition, a basin is the territory that contributes water to the river that it contains, that is, it is the total area that drains directly or indirectly into a stream or river. It is usually named after the storm flow that it feeds. For example, we can talk about the Samalá river basin. Completing the concept, a basin is a natural area in which the water coming from rainfall forms a main water course, until it reaches the sea, lake or another major river. The basin is a hydrographic unit, made up of the set of watercourse systems and delimited by the peaks, or the relief that comprises it, with its limits being the "watershed".
The basin is a dynamic system with physical components such as water, air, soil, subsoil, climate, and minerals; biological, such as flora and fauna; anthropogenic, such as socioeconomic, cultural, and institutional. All these components are interrelated and in a certain equilibrium, so that when one of them is affected, an imbalance occurs in the system that, according to its load capacity, tends to regain balance or produce a new but deteriorated condition.. In addition, the basin being a dynamic system presents innumerable changes over time, where those of anthropogenic origin reflect the culture of the society that inhabits it. So that,A watershed is a natural unit suitable for the coordination of management processes designed to ensure sustainable development.
For practical purposes, a watershed can be divided into sections:
- Upper basin, which corresponds to the mountainous areas limited in its upper part by the dividing lines of the waters Middle basin, which comprises the foothills and lower valleys, where the main river maintains a defined channel Lower basin or transitional zones (such as estuaries or wetlands), where the watercourse wanders or disappears as such.
The world is a unique ecological system in which the hydric system or water cycle has among its functions the maintenance of the global climate and for this, the quality of the basin subsystems and their vegetation cover are a vital sum to keep said cycle stable.. Currently, the few basins in which humans do not live, nor are they incorporated into production, are reservoirs of nature and biodiversity that should be studied, managed and conserved, since day by day with their transformation, species that humanity it has not yet met and the human species itself is put at risk.
The natural, spatial and human settlement relationships of the basins are highly varied, each resulting in a specificity. In each basin where human settlements are located, its carrying capacity should be evaluated in relation to population density and its reproduction, considering that a basin has a finite capacity for physical and biological resources.
The relationship of these with the volume of demand for human needs constitutes their carrying capacity and is expressed as a threshold at which the natural base and the resources can be recycled, regenerated, reproduced and produced. Once this capacity is reduced, the progressive deterioration is irreversible. Therefore, the watersheds should ideally be kept at a positive threshold and the logic of the societies that inhabit them should constantly seek the balance towards higher positive margins without necessarily implying restrictions on the satisfaction of economic, social and cultural needs. Also ideally, each basin should achieve its own sustainability and not artificially incorporate natural resources from other basins.
Basin-related problems are natural and anthropogenic in nature. Natural disasters are part of the evolution of the planet and humanity is not yet fully prepared for their prevention and mitigation, as is the case with volcanic eruptions or hurricanes. On the other hand, the environmental problems generated by the action of humanity, if they can be controlled at will and include generalized pollution, the depletion of natural resources, the loss of biodiversity, deforestation, soil deterioration, siltation of riverbeds., urban planning, in legislation for settlements and water use, in legislation for environmental services, in research on natural resources and clean technology,the lack of equity in the appropriation and distribution of wealth and the lack of a democratic and sustainable culture, among others.
Watershed management objectives evolved from a water catchment orientation, to more complex ones such as the integrated management of the natural resources of a watershed, and finally to integrated environmental management. Currently, watershed management aims to improve social welfare by formulating and implementing actions and practices aimed at conserving natural resources in a watershed (erosion control, pollution control, soil conservation and recovery of areas). degraded); manipulate the natural systems of a watershed for the production of goods and services (for example, provide an increased supply of quality water for consumption, improve forestry, pasture, agricultural,agroforestry or agrosilvopastoral); mitigate the effect of natural phenomena; organize land use (for example, by regulating adequate construction of urban infrastructure) and others.
In the current institutional experience, there are several ways of approaching watershed development planning, depending on the main objective of the management, among them is the integrated natural productive management of watersheds that is based on territorial ordering processes that guide productive activities. according to the characteristics and aptitudes of the soil, climate, presence of endemic species, technology and productive culture. Another form of planning is determined by the objective of watershed management to reduce risk and environmental vulnerability, where the level of risk is defined by the intensity of the threat and the degree of vulnerability of a society to such effects.
The integration of the concept "sustainable management of the Hydrographic Basin" should be considered as the most viable option for the departments, municipalities and communities to make individual and joint efforts for the management, protection, recovery, rational use of their natural resources. The vision of CONRED and AECI when integrating this approach in the diagnosis, study, planning and operational proposals is correct because its ecological, environmental, edaphic and geological integrity ensure the minimization of environmental risks on the territories.
The problem of management and conservation of natural resources directly affects the level of impact that an environmental catastrophe can affect a territory such as a community and / or municipality, it is not necessary to be a specialist to evaluate that those basins whose management has been minimal or adequate, the impact of normal rainy seasons, cyclones, earthquakes, etc., is much less than those that present a deterioration on their forest, water, edaphic and geological resources.
The planning vision when identifying through the consultancy for the identification of risk scenarios and municipal zoning, if it is considered from the “sustainable management of hydrographic basins approach”, will not only fulfill a planning variable but will also allow to start a process of "Territorial ordering" that inserts local governments to seek alternatives for mitigation, correction and recovery of those ecological, hydrobiological and forestry factors that, due to their absence or drastic reduction, make the basins, sub-basins and / or micro basins with greater risk to be affected for environmental causes.
The scope of the consultancy should be seen as a first step to achieve in the medium term a process of “territorial ordering” at the departmental and regional level, considering as a starting point and consensus the integral management of the Naranjo and Suchiate river basins.
Understanding the need for a comprehensive approach to solutions to problems that, due to the impact that year after year has been increasing in the hydrobiological units of the Naranjo and Suchiate river basins, must be understood as the starting point for success not only development but its implementation in the medium and long term.
The products obtained from this consultancy as a very particular vision of the "La Ceiba Consulting Company", is the development not only of the physical and digital environment as a result of a series of technical / scientific activities, but also to contribute to finding the means of articulation that allows CONRED to operate with key local actors that make the current proposal viable.
The approach to risk scenarios and their respective zoning, must, in addition to being conceived within the scope of the consultancy, to continue with the process that has been carried out for many years in municipalities and communities of the Naranjo River and Suchiate basins of awareness and outreach that presents to members of civil society and key stakeholders the importance of being prepared due to ecological fragility and their respective vulnerability in specific cases of communities and municipalities, being realistic about the consequences of poor planning and use of hydrobiological resources and therefore today a greater degree of susceptibility to being impacted by environmental threats.
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