"The analysis of the global food situation leads us to conclude that, if the current trend of population development continues, the shortage of food will only worsen to catastrophic dimensions." Such was the conclusion of the Club of Rome in its 2004 report. If many reject it, others, no less qualified, share it.
In his work “We are going towards hunger”, published 40 years ago (1966), René Dumont -agronomist and FAO expert- already wrote: “The current hunger, that of India, of Africa, is a chronic phenomenon that it seems destined to get worse quickly. We announce the risk of widespread hunger throughout the world, even before 2000.
On May 1, 1975, Alfred Kastler - Nobel Prize winner in Physics in 1966 - also wrote: “We now know that in the Third World, from the Sahel to Blanga Desh, the famine has begun and that between now and the end of the 20th century, hundreds thousands of human beings are condemned to die for that reason. The assistance granted to the Third World by the industrialized countries tends towards zero. The aid has even become negative in the Ibero-American countries, currently obliged to reimburse more than they receive ”. Stark reality in our day.
The overpopulation of the third world
As a whole, humanity grows not at the constant rate of a geometric progression, but at a wild, accelerated rate. The population, which in the course of the 19th century only increased with an average annual rate of approximately 0.5%, and during the first half of the 20th century of 0.8%, suddenly began to grow by 2%.
In keeping with the United Nations forecasts presented in the debates on the world population issue, estimated at about 4,000 million human beings in the 1980s, at the end of the 20th century it rose to 6,000 or 7,200 million, depending on the variant considered. But this growth would have to be very different depending on the countries. That of the developed countries would be limited to 26%, while that of the underdeveloped countries would reach 99%.
Going into detail, all perspectives in this 21st century reveal the amount and speed of growth in some areas, as well as the relative weakening in some others, including Europe. South Asia will play a leading role. Extending from the Philippines and Indonesia to Turkey, it includes demographic giants. Such is the triangle: Pakistan-India-Bangladesh, which currently comprises about a third of humanity.
The rapid growth of the population of Asia, Africa and Latin America provokes a reflection of fear in those European populations and in particular in the United States.
The current food crisis on the African continent is due not only to the increase in the number of consumers, but also to the disappearance of several production areas. The clearest example is the disappearance, for the benefit of the Saharan desert, of the Sahel, where millions of people lived perfectly and according to their ancestral habits.
In tropical Africa, the Sahel stretches across the southern Sahara, from Mauritania to the Niger Bend and Lake Chad. It extends further to Ethiopia and the Red Sea, presenting itself as the largest livestock region in tropical Africa.
The threat of hunger
It is likely that one day or another, for example after a hunger situation or a food crisis with no way out, voices will be raised to demand a better distribution of land. Brazil, Bolivia, Venezuela are examples.
The United States or Australia could be invited to give land to hungry Asians. Such was the conclusion of the work of Alfred Sauvy - a member of the United Nations Population Commission - "The End of the Rich."
Pressure from the Third World to find a place in developed countries in the form of emigration is increasing. Such is the concern of President George W. Bush, who is in favor of building a barrier on the border with northern Mexico, in addition to repatriating the undocumented. Canada, at the same time, expels immigrants from India.
Western Europe, widely industrialized, has welcomed migrants from North Africa, Black Africa and Turkey, who come from regions where the population density is much lower than their own and where the area of arable land, if properly exploited, it would be enough to feed them.
There are many political leaders who do not take into account the importance of food problems in their respective countries. Brazilian professor Helio Jaguaribe -a specialist in Political Science- continues to affirm the possibility of a disaster in the not too distant future if the current conditions of population growth are not modified.
Although Humanity will not perish due to a simple lack of food or due to a shortage of raw materials, it is important to take into account that if the present generation does not manage to modify its growth rate to better respect the balance between the population and possible resources, catastrophes of a political nature are entirely credible.
