When I started writing on my blog http://babot.info/, I did it more out of a desire to investigate and learn about the tool (a part of my work is developed with web 2.0 tools), than with a real intention of attracting readers. Therefore, it was an unexpected surprise, although very pleasant, to see that someone was interested in what I was writing, especially when the traffic was growing and stabilized around 1,500 - 2,000 visits a week, as it now has.
I greatly appreciate that this volume of professionals is interested in the sector and in my articles. In addition, now the blog serves as a channel of communication with many training experts from very different countries, which is invaluable for a consultant and researcher in this field.
One of the most commented contributions was a short post, which ended up asking a question: Growth of Corporate eLearning, do we believe it? I would like to reproduce it now to reflect on the many and rich responses and comments that reached me (27), which can be seen in the same original link. Here is the article:
Corporate eLearning growth: do we believe it?
Since the summer of 2009 I have spent a few months traveling a lot for work. I have attended several conferences abroad, I have spoken with some important clients and I have been writing down figures that are cited to estimate the Corporate eLearning market and its evolution.
The forecasts that vary the most are those of the absolute figures, where there is no agreement. After comparing five different studies, the ones that deserve me the most trust are those of the consultancy IDC, which put the global corporate eLearning market at 17.2 bUSD (2008), with 11.7 bUSD in the USA, which means 68% of market share. IDC also believes that the global figure in 2012 will rise to 24.8 bUSD, which would mean a growth of 44% in just four years.
On what there is reasonable consensus is that North Americans have 60 to 70% of the world market and the growth of corporate eLearning in Europe, which is estimated to be around + 20% per year (no less!).
Market studies and the most knowledgeable companies do not hesitate to defend a strong rise of the so-called eLearning 2.0 (virtual training with web 2.0 tools). Several American companies that I have been able to ask, claim that this sector is anti-cyclical.
As I have said in other articles, I also see a certain joy in Corporate eLearning, comparing it with other activities much more affected by the crisis but, frankly, I do not know if I believe these forecasts of an annual increase of 20%, in Europe (this would be shooting consumption). What do you think? What market perception do you have?
End of post
Many experts on the subject read the article and made thoughtful contributions to the question. For the most part, these opinions coincide with what I hear in other parts of the world. I add here a summary of them, which could be a small note of the trends that can be seen in the sector:
- Yes, we believe it 'quite a bit'. Corporate eLearning is growing, despite everything (the estimated percentages vary) and precisely the crisis may be a trigger for it. There are very different notes on this increase but, in general, it is agreed that 'there is a lot of movement and there will be even more'. Small is beautiful. Perhaps the market will not grow as much for the large traditional providers of virtual training (in fact, several of them are in a certain crisis or with reduced revenues and profits) because clients are looking for more creative, customized and cheap solutions. The economic situation sharpens ingenuity. That's why small, agile companies are capturing much of this growth, rewarding internal content. Customers increasingly wantdevelop your own content and empower internal trainers. They want training to help knowledge management and vice versa, that the two go hand in hand. The creation of materials based on contributions from in-house professionals is highly promoted. In this environment, working with suppliers who provide service rather than product, and who 'engineer' to provoke a lot of internal participation, is greatly benefited. They are looking for companies that support, that support corporations in their plans to encourage participation, not that 'land' with large and complicated proposals. The demand for 'canned' courses is stabilizing, but not the demand for programs produced ad hoc, which is the one that increases. The use of web 2.0 is increasing. It is a corollary of all the above, the pedagogical strategy is increasingly imposed,good methodologies and lesstechnology. This is also a corollary of the above. The market tends to look for training plans with a high dose of creativity and prominence of people, of 'their' people: talent to power. For this reason, technology is increasingly a commodity: it is outsourced, sometimes even free sources are used, and you forget about it. It is the same as with good cars: you only worry if they break down. What is increasingly important and interesting are implementation tactics, how to build a good offer to get busy people involved. Technocentrism decreases and attempts are made to increase the quality of the detection of needs, the master plan, the itineraries, the creation and maintenance of teams of internal trainers, skills training, etc. Due,the demand for 'level knowledge' increases (coming from internal teams or outsourced outside) and the demand for 'hardware and software '.
As the author of the article, these are the trends that I observe and discuss with many experts, from this and other countries: that is why I share them. However, if the reader disagrees or wants to clarify any topic, please do so freely: it will be an honor to continue listening to opinions about this exciting sector, which is at a very important time.
