Population dynamics is one of the main dimensions of the economic challenges and social characteristics of a country. On the one hand, demographic processes determine the size and structure by age and sex of the total population and its evolution, thus conditioning the composition of the workforce and the factors associated with productivity and income levels.
Additionally, demographic variables, influenced by the heterogeneity inherent in the different geographical and cultural spheres, are key in determining the social reality of a country, as they are closely associated with the figures of poverty, iniquity, social exclusion and the environment.
In this way, demography is closely related to the concept of development, both economic and social. In this sense, it is especially relevant in the Peruvian case, where development levels are insufficient to guarantee minimum living conditions for a considerable part of the population.
Over the next few years, population dynamics will create various challenges for the country, particularly for policy makers. In this article, a brief review of the future demographic situation will be carried out, emphasizing the main challenges and population trends, in order to encourage efforts to analyze the current demographic problem and contribute to an adequate formulation of public policies that consider the characteristics individuals of the different realities of the country.
Demographic dynamics
The population growth rate, as is well known, is determined by the combination of three factors: birth rate, mortality and migratory balances. In the Peruvian case, however, the evolution of recent population growth figures is mainly due to changes in birth rates, mainly influenced by the decline in fertility in recent decades. The global fertility rate (TGF) has been declining since the late 1960s, from 6.85 children / woman to 3 children / woman in 2000. As a consequence of the fertility decline, the absolute number of births has started to decrease in this five-year period, from 612 to 603 thousand annually. The replacement rate (TGF = 2.1 children /
woman) will only be reached by 20201.
In addition to the decrease in TGF, it must be considered that the mortality rate has been falling since the 1950s. In particular, the infant mortality rate shows a downward trend, of 158 deaths per thousand live births in the middle of the last century, at 45/1000 towards the year 2000.
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