The history of statistics is quite extensive, it is known from the use of quantitative tools for data processing in ancient civilizations such as Egypt, more than 5000 years ago, where they were used in all kinds of censuses. Also in the Bible, in the Old Testament, the census is mentioned; Furthermore, it is known that in Ancient China and Greece, as well as in the Roman Empire, censuses were carried out for different purposes: military, tributary and social. In the Middle Ages in Europe, records of births, deaths and marriages were kept, and during the colonial era, data on the population and wealth of the conquered territories were recorded. The constant use of these tools gave rise to the term statistics,that referred to the socioeconomic information or demographic data of the states.
The following is a generic sketch of the origin, history and evolution of statistics, based on bibliographic sources:
Romero and Zúnica (p.16) indicate that problems appeared in the most disparate areas have played fundamental roles motivating the development of what we now call Statistics. So:
- The economic and military needs of the States encouraged, from very remote times, the carrying out by them of censuses of their population and their wealth. Berber piracy in the Mediterranean motivated the development of maritime insurance, with its associated problems of evaluation of The great interest in games of chance motivated, especially from the 17th century, the theoretical development of the Calculation of Probabilities.
- The Theory of Errors was initially developed in connection with problems that appeared in the area of Astronomy; the Theory of Correlation arose in the context of the study of biological problems; the theory of Factor Analysis appears in the field of Psychology; that of Gi · dos Tests in Sociology, Experiment Design in Agronomic Sciences, Time Series Analysis is developed especially in Economics and Meteorology; etc…
According to Ross (p.9):
The term Statistics, which was used until the 18th century as an abbreviation of the descriptive science of States, was increasingly identified in the 19th century with quantitative figures. By 1830, in France and England, the term was already used generally as a synonym for the numerical science of society. This change in meaning was due to the fact that, since 1800, the governments of Western Europe and the United States began to systematically collect and publish a large number of census records and other types of tables.
Although probability theory had been developed throughout the 19th century by mathematicians such as Jacob Bernoulli, Karl Friedich Gauss, and Pierre Simon Laplace, its application to the study of statistical facts was almost non-existent, since most social statisticians of the time they were content to let the data speak for themselves. In particular, statisticians at that time were not interested in drawing inferences from individuals, rather they focused on society as a whole. Consequently, they were not concerned with sampling but were trying to obtain censuses of the entire population. As a result, the probabilistic inference about the population from samples was practically unknown in 19th century social statistics.It was not until the end of this century that statisticians began to worry about inferring conclusions from numerical data.
For Yáñez (pp. 3 and 4) the antecedents of statistics are Political Arithmetic, Probability Theory and experimental scientists from the 19th century. The Political Arithmetic that includes population censuses, birth, mortality and marriage records, tax rates and other topics related to the description of the states, can be found since before Christ, and gives rise to the statistical word attributed to the professor of the University of Göttingen (Germany) Gotfried Achenwall (1719-1772). It is clear that the statistical discipline transcends those narrow primitive limits and it is precisely the confluence of Political Arithmetic with the Theory of Probability under the influence of experimental scientists of the 19th century, which configures statistics in the modern sense,in the sense of the 20th century. That 1900, of casual and capricious appearance, as a date of birth, recorded by his father »Karl Pearson in his article in the Philosofical Magazine, is the result of the influence of Darwinism through Galton that prompted this great mathematician to apply the Theory of Probability to the themes of evolution. Mendel was also rediscovered in 1900, (his work on the statistical laws of inheritance had been published in 1856) and the controversy between Darwinists and Mendelians in the first quarter of the 20th century, also influences statistics.it is the result of the influence of Darwinism through Galton that prompted this great mathematician to apply the Theory of Probability to the themes of evolution. Mendel was also rediscovered in 1900, (his work on the statistical laws of inheritance had been published in 1856) and the controversy between Darwinists and Mendelians in the first quarter of the 20th century, also influences statistics.it is the result of the influence of Darwinism through Galton that prompted this great mathematician to apply the Theory of Probability to the themes of evolution. Mendel was also rediscovered in 1900, (his work on the statistical laws of inheritance had been published in 1856) and the controversy between Darwinists and Mendelians in the first quarter of the 20th century, also influences statistics.
Ruiz (pp. 5 and 6) identifies three major stages in the historical development of statistics:
- First Phase: The Censuses: From the moment a political authority is constituted, the idea of inventorying in a more or less regular way the population and wealth existing in the territory is linked to the awareness of sovereignty and the first administrative efforts. Second Phase: From the Description of Sets to Political Arithmetic: Mercantilist ideas miss an intensification of this type of research. Colbert multiplies the surveys on manufactured articles, the commerce and the population: the intendants of the Kingdom send to Paris their memories. Vauban, better known for his fortifications or his Dime Royale, which is the first proposal for an income tax, is noted as the true precursor to the polls. Jester later worries about those problems before turning to natural history. The English school provides new progress by overcoming the purely descriptive phase. Its three main representatives are Graunt, Petty and Halley. The penultimate is the author of the famous Political Arithmetic. Chaptal, French Minister of the Interior, published in 1801 the first general population census, carried out industrial studies,of the productions and changes, becoming systematic during the two thirds of the XIX century.Third Phase: Statistics and Probability Calculation: Probability calculation is quickly incorporated as an extremely powerful analytical tool for the study of economic and social phenomena and in general for the study of phenomena “whose causes are too complex to fully understand and make their analysis possible ”.
Bibliography
- Romero Villafranca, Rafael and Zúnica Ramajo, Luisa Rosa. Statistical methods in engineering. Editorial Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, 2005. Ross, Sheldon M. Introduction to statistics, Reverte, 2007. Ruiz Muñoz, David. Statistical Manual, Eumed, 2004.Yáñez Canal, Sergio. Statistics, a science of the 20th century. RA Fisher the genius. In: Colombian Statistical Magazine, Vol. 23, 2000, p.3 and 4
