The objective of this paper is to carry out a brief review of the main problems currently facing financial risk analysis at MINTUR. A methodological - philosophical outline of how to approach the analysis of the existing methodology is outlined, and a research project on this problem is described. The main problem is indicated, as well as the hypothesis and objectives that presuppose the solution to the problem.
The variables on which it is proposed to influence are the age of the debt and the average number of days of collection. An alternative methodology is offered. Finally, an investigative structure of the problem in question is described.
Summary
The present work sets out like objective to make a brief review on the main problems that the analysis of the financial risk confronts at the present time in the MINTUR. It is outlined methodological - philosophically like focusing the analysis of the existing methodology, and an investigative project of this problematic one is described.
It is indicated the main problem, as well as the hypothesis and objectives that estimate the solution to the problem. The variables, which it sets out to affect, are the antiquity of the debt and the average of days of collection. An alternative methodology is offered. Finally a investigative structure of the problem at issue is described.
According to the World Bank's 2002 Development Report, effective institutions are defined as those that fulfill the following functions:
- Conduct information on the market situation, its assets and participants. Define and enforce property rights and contracts, determining who gets what and at what time. Intensify or reduce competition in the markets.
He goes on to point out that: "thanks to these three functions, all institutional structures have an impact on the distribution of assets, income and costs, as well as on the incentives of market participants and the efficiency of their transactions."
Now, who builds these institutions? Faced with the development of economies and the increasing complexity of transactions, institutions must also evolve.
This evolution may be the result of changes that have occurred in existing institutions, but it may also be due to the construction or transplantation of new ones. Who builds these institutions? The state, but also companies and representatives of the community and agents of international markets.
Public authorities who wish to establish institutions, aware of the context of information, compliance and competition, must evaluate what inhibits market development or results in concrete results in this area. The key is to identify what types of institutions are needed, rather than assuming that what is needed is a concrete structure. Policymakers should ask themselves:
- Who needs information and about what? Are property rights and contracts clearly defined and protected? Is the competition enough or excessive?
In addition, four basic approaches to institutional development are valid for all sectors and countries: complement what exists, innovate to identify institutions that work, connect communities through information flows, and promote competition.
From all this it follows that after implementing the mechanism capable of achieving the improvement and development of financial institutions that guarantee sustained and sustainable development both at the macro and micro economic levels, the market will be exposed to a number of risks, among that we can quote:
- Interest rate risk. Sovereign risk. Transfer risk. Market-market risk. Operation risk. Exchange rate risk. Credit risk.
Precisely this work aims to outline the fundamental problem of comprehensive financial risk management, such as the lack of cohesion in risk policy at the MINTUR level, and from there, suggest a philosophical-methodological sketch of a variant alternative.
Humanity has always struggled between being and knowing, between the real fact and the imaginative fact, between eutopia and dystopia. Today, when the advances in science and technology have reached scandalously deep and complex levels, the relationships between being, knowing and having to be have entered a kind of continuous and discontinuous maze of lights and shadows, in which epistemology seems to have a leading role.
If we look at the epistemic knowledge (*) in the different fields of human concerns, we can see how proliferate the readings and explanations are, which from science, are given to the multiple and contradictory consequences that for men and society have brought the development of science and the so-called new information technologies; so much so that some time here we often talk about, for example, the new economy, post-normal science, as well as many other types of sciences; which is implying certain ruptures (real or imaginary) with traditional scientific paradigms, since it is almost always assumed that technology has changed the world so much that it can no longer be sufficiently explained by "conventional science". (one)
Now, according to the Philosophical Dictionary:
Science: Form of social consciousness; It constitutes a historically formed system of ordered knowledge whose veracity is constantly checked and pointed out in the use of social practice. As science approaches production (…) it becomes one more productive force. (two)
Considering the two previous approaches, it can be concluded that the economic sciences are not exempt from these contradictions that are cause and effect of development itself. Even and classifying among the so-called "conventional science", with the vertiginous development achieved by the "new economy", the conceptualization and development of new methodologies is essential.
Economy, as a science, has not been alien to these modes and fashions. This field of human knowledge has not only been invaded by new terms and concepts, many of them carried over from other sciences, but above all by a great avalanche of econometric models so abstract and ideal that they are often monstrous intellectual exercises, surprising logical constructions., but that frequently have little or nothing to do with social logic, with the "real" rationality of society or the part of it that is modeled.
About science.
Science can be considered as that knowledge system that modifies our vision of the real world and enriches our knowledge about the cosmos, our culture and our imagination.
• It is therefore also the research process that allows obtaining new knowledge, which in turn offers greater possibilities of operation and manipulation of phenomena.
• Furthermore, science has been considered as a productive force that fosters the transformation of the world and therefore as a source of wealth, as a duly institutionalized profession, carrier of its own culture and with well-identified social functions.
• For all the above reasons, it is a complex phenomenon whose historical expressions have varied considerably.
The acquisition of knowledge, the search for truth or true scientific theory, with objectivity and rigor, is a function of science. The true or false character of scientific theories depends on their ability to decipher the world in all its contradictory dialectics, in all its diversity and always under the presupposition of the relative nature of the knowledge itself that science itself brings us.
Any effort to formulate a theory of science must underline the social nature of scientific work. That is the orientation of the materialistic dialectical approach to science. (one)
Closely linked to science is the development achieved by the productive forces, which has taken a dizzying momentum, considering fundamentally the shortening of distances through the improvement of communications (Internet, etc.), and the irreversible process of global globalization.
If we define development as:
Development: Process of self-movement from the lower (from the simple) to the higher (to the complex), which reveals and realizes the internal tendencies and the essence of the phenomena, which lead to the appearance of the new (New (the) old). Philosophical dictionary. M.Rosental and P. Iudin. Political Editor. 1981-Pag. 173 (2)
It also seems prudent to us to consider the consideration of science as a direct productive force in the current conditions of production.
There is talk of replacing "outdated images of science and technology" and "more up-to-date alternative images."
In Cuba, "renewed conceptual frameworks" are needed, which, we add, can be found in the philosophical ideas and principles developed among Cuban philosophers from non-dogmatic perspectives and "incorporated into Cuban culture and social thought."
Although the reflection on science and technology as a social phenomenon, and the reflection on its use, its institutionalization, its consequences, good or bad, on scientific policies and the need for points of view that start not from positions in which science and technology alone guarantee social development and progress and that in the current conditions the limit of a traditional relationship towards technology and towards the environment in the conditions of current capitalist production with global implications compromises the entire humanity, they are Necessary and peremptory, this does not exclude that these reflections omit points of view that can enrich the debates rather than prevent it, nor does it indicate that philosophy, as knowledge of the present and from the present, is not the one who should assume this function. (3)
Finally, considering that development as a cause and consequence of the progress achieved by science and technology, as well as the influence that all this has on the economic sciences, as an important link in science, let us pause for a moment on this matter.
Let us begin this reflection with an affirmation that at first glance might seem like a truism for not a few specialists who move in the field of economic sciences, and it is the following: political economy is a social science, precisely because it is in charge of studying the whole of relationships established by men in the process of production, distribution, change and consumption of ever scarce resources, as well as the system of laws and contradictions that are inherent in such relationships and processes.
So we can say that among the relationships established in said process, there are financial relationships, and that is where the essence of this work is focused, on the conception, so to speak, of a methodology for analyzing financial risk in general, as an important element in the context of financial relations as a link in production relations.
Summing up what has been analyzed so far, we can say that the development achieved by science and technology, which makes the latter become one more productive force, has an enormous impact on society; This impact has different edges, but in this specific case that we are dealing with we will focus on the economic impact in general, and in particular on financial relations as the entity of production relations that is the object of study in the economic sciences.
Within financial relationships, the analysis of financial risk is an element to be taken into account, hence the development of a financial risk analysis methodology, as well as a necessity for everything explained so far, is the problem to be solved., object of the present work.
If we outline this, it would be as follows:
We are now in a position to move on to explain the work itself.
What is the problem that all this represents?
Scientific problem:
The risk policy has been confronting lack of cohesion and procedural errors with the consequent financial damage for companies, business groups and the country in general.
In some cases, duplication of analysis and / or solution of financial risk is duplicated, especially regarding credit policy, or the decisive management of a determining link is missing, or the management is not carried out by the primary link that knows the details wasted in addition to time, money and financial possibilities.
This problem, then, presupposes the following hypothesis:
Hypothesis:
A coherent and appropriate financial risk analysis methodology is one that complies with the following principles:
- The levels of responsibility and decision making are correctly defined. It has a solid structure. It has a system of efficiency measuring indicators that allow the risk policy to be redirected towards the optimal variant at any time. It is aimed at the constant reduction of the collection cycle and the minimization of old and unpaid debt.
The solution of this problem based on the hypothesis implies the fulfillment of the following strategic objectives.
General or Strategic Objective:
Determine the causes that cause the insufficiencies in the conception and practice of risk policy in Cuban hotel organizations and propose appropriate solutions to our conditions.
Variables
- Age of the debt by itemized debtors. The objective of incidence on this variable is to minimize the percentage of debt over 60 days old, considering that the parameter established by the OMT for this indicator is 15%. The impact that the application of the proposed methodology has on this indicator is valued. Average collection days. The objective of measuring this variable is to minimize this indicator, guaranteeing at least that it is equal to what is agreed in the contract, if not less. The impact of applying the proposed methodology on this indicator is assessed. Composition of the loan portfolio at each decision level: company. Group, Ministry and Country. Determine the optimal structure of the credit portfolio at each level,managing to take full advantage of the financial possibilities derived from this.
Specific objectives:
- Study the problems of risk policy in Cuban hotel organizations and establish which are the main causes that determine the difficulties they are currently facing. Apply analysis techniques that make it possible to know the structure of the causes found and the factors that favor or limit its elimination or reduction of its effects. Design a group of instruments that in the short term allow to significantly improve the conception and practice of risk policy in the organizations studied. Determine a group of parameters that allow optimizing the loan portfolio. Validate the instruments designed in a representative sample of Cuban hotel entities.Present a strategic project for the introduction and generalization of instruments designed in Cuban hotel entities.
Tasks to develop:
1- Theoretical-practical study on national and international experiences on financial risk. Prepare a Methodology for Comprehensive Risk Management based on the most advanced experiences on this topic.
2- Establish the causes that affect the lack of cohesion of risk policy in Cuban hotel organizations. Prepare a final proposal for the Methodology for Comprehensive Risk Management in hotel facilities, which achieves optimal cohesion between all the links involved in it.
3- Determine and structure the instruments and steps to follow that will contain said methodology and its application.
4- Prepare an economic standard for optimizing the loan portfolio.
5- Application of the Methodology model for Comprehensive Risk Management in hotel facilities.
6- Validation of the result of the implementation of the Methodology for Comprehensive Risk Management in a representative sample of hotel facilities.
7- Implementation of the Methodology for Comprehensive Risk Management in selected hotel facilities. (Partial generalization).
8- Prepare and present a project to generalize the Methodology at MINTUR.
The tasks of the methodology can be represented through the following scheme:
Scientific Novelty:
- Economic:
Meanwhile, insofar as this methodology pursues the purpose of uniting the links that intervene in the analysis of financial risk, the economic novelties it raises are:
-Design of a methodology for Comprehensive Risk Management within tourist facilities.
-The practical utility is in the effect it has in the early detection of financial imbalances and unpaid debts; as well as the decrease in the collection cycle and unpaid debts.
- Social
From the social point of view, the novelty is given by the property relations by means of which all the considerations for the proposed methodology are taken.
- The application of this methodology for a socialist system, with social ownership over the means of production, constitutes a novelty.
- Environmental.
The insufficiency of "individual consciences, knowledge and environmental education", the "lack of requirement in management, a limited introduction of the results of Science and Technology and the meager introduction of the so-called environmental dimension in policies, plans and development programs ”reflected in the National Environmental Strategy, require the improvement of social thinking as a crucial element for understanding the causes of environmental problems, to know the factors that enable and constrain them from praxis, a domain without which it will be impossible mitigate them.
The relevance that the social dimension of the environment is acquiring in our country, together with the epistemological reconstruction process seen in the social sciences, the results obtained in some areas of sociology and the growing demand for specialized services, are premises for subvert these problems, but the will to coherently incorporate sociological analysis is hampered by the partialization of knowledge that still persists; not by undervaluing the contribution of Social Sciences in general, but by antecedent issues such as:
The persistence of a notion of the environment that reduces it only to its natural physical dimension; the scarce knowledge that decision makers have on this subject and the lack of responsibility of individual agents - actors. Manifestations of the division of knowledge between the different areas of our social organism.
So, as a methodology that enriches knowledge and praxis in our social system, therein lies its environmental first, considering this last category as a single whole. (4)
Method:
The scientific solution to the doctoral subject requires the use of advanced scientific methods based on the search for experimental information, analysis and synthesis, statistical, mathematical, systems methods, among others, all for a better theoretical and practical development of it, in seeks to achieve its strategic and specific objectives.
The methodological structure to be developed would be:
Structure:
1 Foundation of the theoretical problem.
1.1 Brief review of the theories, methodologies and techniques of risk analysis.
- Bibliographic and Internet consultation on methodological aspects related to this subject. Brief historical review of the same. Consult specialists on the subject and experts in hotel management.
1.2 Characteristics of tourism development and link with Risk analysis. Currency risk.
- Bibliographic and Internet consultation on exchange rate risk. Factoring assessment as a risk management method.
2 Preparation and description of the structure of a Credit and Risk Analysis Department, as well as its interrelation with other departments.
- Vertical Integration. Horizontal Integration. Regulations for the agreement of commercial contracts.
2.1 Design and structure of the risk department. Place it occupies in the business organization chart. Interrelation with other departments.
2.2 Development of a model and methodology for the analysis of credit and exchange risks in the hotel (company).
3 Application of the model and methodology described in the previous section.
3.1 Results of the application of the proposed methodology.
3.2 Importance of this information for decision making.
So far a brief outline of how the analysis of the improvement of the financial analysis methodology in MINTUR should be approached philosophically-methodologically.
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