The article proposes a referential framework centered on the approach of three premises that the leaders-entrepreneurs (in the SMEs) should contemplate for the prospective planning of their business.
Today, the exponential growth of large organizations is (largely) due to the establishment or adoption of sustainable and lasting trends, or not so much, but which in themselves entail an imperishable structure. This set of elements is undoubtedly the focus of permanent attention within the boards of directors of companies.
Until a decade ago, a technique (undoubtedly effective), scenario analysis, contemplated the behavior of a strategy according to some variables derived from reactive and in other cases proactive hypotheses.
Such was the success of this case-probability study, that from the mid-1990s on, the technique was refined and serious development regarding foresight began to be considered as a formal object of establishing strategies in organizations.
Large companies such as Grupo Carso and Bimbo in Mexico, Telefónica Movistar (Spanish), AT&T (since the late 1970s in the US), Microsoft, Apple and many more, not only control and are creators of great trends, but increasingly, determine the global financial, technological and avant-garde direction thanks to their business vision derived from a great analysis of foresight.
What is prospective?
It is a discipline that studies the future from a social, economic, political, scientific and technological point of view.
Gaston Berger (one of the founders of foresight) defines it as "the science that studies the future in order to understand it and be able to influence it".
Exploring the future requires a strict methodology, so that the processes are transparent and entirely reproducible. This “meticulousness” is accelerated due to circumstances that require a maximum of imagination, creativity and intellectual freedom, which is why the prospect analyzes scenarios from three different perspectives:
- Prediction, which helps us to understand mechanisms that trigger certain events and avoid others, allowing the possibility of knowing the future. Interpretation, which tries to forecast future alternatives to improve the quality of present decisions and have the possibility of reacting to the unexpected. Socially, it is important that future studies be sensitive to multiple environments. The criticism, based on the premise that states that “it cannot be done prospectively based on projections of the present, since what is considered normal in the present the future might not be. It offers alternative scenarios without imposing topics or prejudices that can turn the exercise of foresight into a mere projection of the future.
In my experience as a business consultant, I have been able to determine some elements that SME leaders frequently establish as a starting point when projecting growth (generally excessive and without formal support).
I quote three very important:
- Let us remember that the projected growth cannot be determined by merely speculative aspects, or without first having gathered a wealth of data related to the projection itself and based on obtained results or well-defined trends. A projection is generally developed before planning begins. strategic, and without taking into account very important aspects such as the conformation, integration and implementation of all the elements involved. In the face of adverse situations or crises (financial, lack of leadership, operational, administrative, etc.), a large part is generally used, or all available resources to solve the present contingency, and organizational and structural strategies are not developed to form a comprehensive predictive and reactive system, that is,a large amount of resources and time is invested in revolving plans that will not generate solid strategies from operation to expansion as the case may be.
Below I propose three elements to consider in the development of leaders and entrepreneurs of SMEs and that I consider valuable, from a mere prospective exercise:
1.- Do you know your business in depth, its greatest capabilities and even the smallest weak point? It is never too late to abandon the old belief that tells me to know my business thoroughly and the final feeling of stagnation or expectation that this produces.
I am sure that at this very moment you are installed in a great “comfort circle”. In it you do not differentiate your great limitations, because your vision is clouded and monopolized by your own paradigms. Your plan or perspective may work perfectly, however from your "comfort circle" the vision is very limited. Get out of there without fear and get to know your business in depth starting from the very approach. You may destroy your initial planning, however it will help you reinforce your successes and correct your weaknesses. Don't forget, a weakness can become your greatest strength.
2.- How does the future paint you? Does your reality bother you? You are in the best possible moment. The great feats, often arose from simple ideas, but endowed with such practicality, that today they set trends. Prepare your terrain and know your capabilities and limitations in depth. There is never another specialization, training, advice or certification. As troublesome or unworkable as you see it, plan and focus on developing strategies and focus on your expected results. Remember that your knowledge, leadership and projections are the basis for your growth. Many times our realities make us uncomfortable or stop our plans. Implement possible solutions and always consider simple but forceful plans.
3.- Give yourself the opportunity to be more efficient and effective. Your leadership is usually the projection of your skills and attitudes. Projecting a successful image without controlling elements as simple and important as leadership, often places us in the middle of dangerous terrain. Contemplate scenarios and put them into practice prioritized. The results will not wait.
These three approaches arise from basic premises of the prospective. Design how many analyzes you want to carry out.
Interesting. True?
"Only he who builds the future has the right to judge the past." Friedrich Nietzsche.
