Demand Forecasts refers to the demand for products and services by intermediate and final consumers. Demand forecasts guide different strategic and operational decisions in the Supply Chain
QUANTIFYING FUNDAMENTAL CRITERIA
inventory-planning-for-the-supply-chain-1Good forecasts will always have errors
Forecasts require an error estimate
Good forecasts are usually based on "Aggregate Forecasts"
They include: casual models, expert judgments, and historical information
Grouped by: Time horizon
Geographic areas
Product groups, diagnostics
User groups
Demand Forecast Theory and Techniques
Statistical forecasts are seldom sufficient to satisfy the 4 purposes of health agency planning.
Informed opinion-based judgments can help rationalize, update and / or confirm forecasts derived from statistics.
Forecasts that are based on experience depend on the analysis of subjective inputs from a variety of sources
- Consumer surveys - trend in the use of services o To test the sensitivity of new services Service and marketing staff - specific plans such as openings / closings of services, impact of promotional and preventive programs, etc. Senior executives - A introduction of new services.Experts / Discipline -advice related to competitive, political, technological or economic conditions.
The main objective is to have the correct product-service, at the correct time, in the correct place and in the correct conditions
Target - Parallel
It allows to support strategic decisions in the service
- Logistics infrastructure Hiring of staff Agreements with suppliers
