Strategic foresight, forecasting and foresight

Summary

Strategic foresight has been used as a tool since the fifties, and its results have been very successful. The pioneer country that implemented this technique in its industrial development was Japan, in the field of electronic activity and activity. automotive. Today, in Mexico, few use this tool, a situation that is a bit worrying; The result of this is that the people who make decisions in organizations are unaware of their existence; This is due to the lack of information from empowered public companies, who should provide refresher courses and workshops on Strategic Foresight to entrepreneurs.

This article focuses on the study of Strategic Foresight, in order for companies to know its use and application, and thereby achieve a sustainable economy through a desirable future, where they can influence it.

Companies must focus on planning their future, not staying with the results they are experiencing in the present; Ask yourself a series of questions that indicate the current position you are in, and at the same time ask yourself how you could be operating in the long term, thus avoiding putting the success of the company at risk.

Abstract

Strategic Foresight as a tool has been using since the early fifties, same as the results have been highly successful, pioneering country implement this technique in industrial development was Japan in the field of electronic activity and automotive activity. Today, in Mexico, few use this tool, a little worrisome situation; result is that decision makers in organizations, unaware of its existence; and this lack of information by authorized public companies, who should provide refresher courses and workshops on Strategic Prospective entrepreneurs.

This paper focuses on the study of the Strategic Foresight, in order that companies know their use and application, and thereby achieve a sustainable economy through a desirable future, where they can influence it.

Companies should focus on planning your future, not keep the results you're living in the present; ask a series of questions that will indicate the current position in which it is located, while wondering how he could be operating long term, thus avoiding, compromising the success of the company.

Introduction

"The Strategic Prospective" is a tool of great interest in our country and the rest of the world. Strategic foresight is of vital importance in decision-making and good operation within the organization, since if the desirable future is planned in the long term in the scenario or possible scenarios, applying them correctly can attribute favorable results, thereby achieving success and maintaining a sustainable economy; to avoid jeopardizing the success of the company.

At the national and state level, most of the companies are unaware of this strategic tool. This occurs because information is lacking, by the authorized companies, who do not download the information in a timely manner or simply do not disseminate it, therefore, they ignore its effects on the long-term favorable results.

The objective of this article is to develop the study of prospectiveness and learn more about its use, in our social, economic and technological environment, considering the different internal and external factors within the organization, to avoid falling into the tyranny that It imposes the short term on us, and make the right decisions at the right time.

In order to fully understand this topic, we will begin by talking about the study of prospects, strategic prospects, strategic prospects as a weapon of the future, strategic prospects: beyond the strategic plan (Forecasting and Foresight.

Background

Although foresight is a relatively new discipline in our environment, it has been applied in the world since the beginning of the 20th century.

The first serious studies of future scenarios began to be developed in the United States in the 1920s, but the recession of 1929 and then the start of World War II diluted this first attempt to identify future scenarios.

At the end of the war, Japan began the search for methodologies that would allow it to reactivate its industry, and re-discovered the prospective, becoming the first country that successfully undertook its application in the planning of its manufacturing industry. Currently, Japan is already in its Seventh Delphi Foresight Exercise, running for the period 2001-2005.

The successful experience of Japan made foresight an essential tool for planning public policies. This is how, since the eighties, almost all the nations of Europe and Asia have been developing their National Foresight Programs. Even the European Union and APEC have Specialized Centers in the formulation and execution of prospective studies: the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville (Spain) and the APEC Center of Technology Foresight in Bangkok (Thailand), respectively.

Latin America has not been alien to this trend. Thanks to the work of UNIDO since 1998 in Latin America and the Caribbean, the respective National Foresight Programs have been implemented. Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia, Uruguay, Ecuador, Chile and Mexico have already been executing their National Programs with singular success.

The first multinational company to use one of the prospective methodologies, scenario planning, was the oil company Royal Shell in 1968. Prior to that date, Shell only applied forecasting methods, which prevented them from identifying and interpreting events crucial to its industry such as the one that occurred in October 1973 in the Middle East, which later became known as the "1973 oil crisis." By applying prospective techniques, Shell was able to envision this undesirable scenario and propose contingent plans that were used at the time. Over the years, the use of foresight has been shown to "have a fundamental impact on the way the company (Shell) as a whole got through the turbulent 1970s and early 1980s."

At present, most of the large international companies, from automotive companies to microelectronics and telecommunications leaders, as well as investment banks and trading companies, use the prospect for the medium and long-term planning of their operations. (Martín, 2013).

Prospective study

Before developing the topic we have to know or be very clear about what Prospective is. "Foresight is the science that studies the future to understand it and be able to influence it" (Berger, 1991).

Prospecting consists of projecting long-term situations, to lead and build the best desired future, taking into account the different internal and external factors, which can be very important when making decisions, to anticipate possible threats and achieve with this, greater economic and social benefits for the company.

A company without a prospect would have no reason to exist, because it would have an uncertain future, which would put its operation and progress at risk; since by not having a vision, it would not survive in a world of high competitiveness and constant changes.

Companies must focus on planning their future, not staying with the results they are experiencing in the present; ask yourself a series of questions that indicate the current position you are in, and at the same time ask yourself how you could be operating in the long term, thus avoiding putting the success of the company at risk. In the same way, to achieve a level of competitiveness with the leading companies in the market, with the use of tools such as benchmarking necessary for learning the best commercial practices, and comparing their performance. Social changes will advance drastically, which if we locate ourselves in the future, the demands and requirements for jobs would be more and better knowledge and skills. In this challenge, managers must be involved,entrepreneurs, professionals, financial managers, and executives who are responsible for making decisions in private and public companies.

Currently, in the state of Chiapas, a large part of the SMEs lack a strategic prospect, in fact they do not even have the idea of what it means. In addition to this, some factors that could be influencing is the lack of vision and preparation on the part of the management and directive levels of the various organizations, since they are in a state of comfort, more concerned about the fiscal situation, than about knowing the financial situation and the results that could lead to the success of the company, and the planning to build the desired future, in which it is competing with the market leaders.

Foresight studies as a transcendental strategy allow the identification, anticipation and projection of trends in the social, economic and technological sectors. For this it is vitally important that companies today have a Philosophy and a vision due to the constant changes in the highly changing and competitive environment:

"The only permanent thing in the world is change, affirming that the foundation of everything is in incessant change" (Heraclitus of Ephesus, 535 BC)

"Changes in any order of things could occur in the world every 24 hours" (Druker, 1990).

It is worth mentioning that the success that a company has achieved in the present, if they are not prepared for change, is not a guarantee of survival in the future; In other words, today's companies will not necessarily be the best of tomorrow, therefore it is essential to adapt to the speed of change to avoid risks, not to wait for things to happen to start taking action on the problem.

The main reasons for the importance of foresight is competition and technological innovation. The competition is rapidly increasing, and impacting the markets making the rivalry between the companies grow; Therefore, technological innovation is considered the engine of development of the economy, since it constitutes the main element of change and progress in society, more and more companies and people are made of these technological resources, achieving with them new knowledge and skills to develop their functions and operations, with the implementation of these modern tools (Arreola, 2014).

Strategic foresight

Strategic foresight, a concept not very well known among Chiapas businessmen, since they manage in the traditional way and sometimes they do not apply conjectures or "scenarios" of what their company could be in the future. Scenarios are situations that have not happened yet but could happen. And as they are possible, the company must be prepared for them so as not to be surprised by the future. But who should be in charge of applying strategic foresight? Practically entrepreneurs, managers, administrators, executives in charge of decision-making in the company. In my opinion, it would be a good alternative for the Ministry of Labor together with the Ministry of Economy to give training courses and workshops about Business Prospective,summon Chiapas businessmen to receive training on this topic. How does Business Outlook help the company? In making the decision to launch a new product on the market, opening another branch, sales strategies, etc. (Vazquez Celaya, 2014).

Strategic foresight as a weapon for the future

We need to fight against the tyranny imposed on us by the short term, establishing our long-term vision and opting for that bet scenario that will transfer us to a sustainable economy. In our times, many of the ills we suffer and even the economic-financial crisis itself that currently penalizes, burdens and limits our lives are due to the consequences derived from the short-termism in which we have installed our social, political and economic life.

It is by no means a problem that affects only one country. Short-termism is also a phenomenon suffered by all the countries of the world. Naturally, in some countries there is much less than in others because they invest in Strategic Foresight and apply it to the construction of their desirable future.

The future is not foreseen, it is being prepared. The tyranny of the urgent, the short-termism syndrome, is a social disease that can be cured. The science of foresight, understood as that science that studies the future to influence it or, where appropriate, to prepare in advance and, in this way, not have to suffer it as we usually do, is our best weapon to successfully prepare for the future. Thus, against the crisis, Strategic Foresight and the tools it provides is the best recipe we have. Naturally, as long as our strategy pursues a sustainable economy (Gabiña, 2009).

Strategic foresight: beyond the strategic plan

A limitation of the Strategic Plan

In the various organizations and institutions that seek to guide their future, it is common practice to use the Strategic Plan as a key tool for the development of their activities; However, once the period of duration of this plan is over, a logical question remains, what should the organization follow? To answer this question there are various analysis techniques, based on what has been achieved up to that date in the strategic plan that is over.

Due to the aforementioned and considering that the strategic plan is a guide for the organization, would it not also be convenient to have a complementary guide in the preparation of the vision of the next strategic plan? In effect, what is needed is an orientation of where the organization is going in the long term, what future it wants to build, in order to avoid free will in the preparation of this very important document, which can often degenerate into disjointed visions., instead of abrupt course changes, in other words, towards an uncertain future.

From what has been said previously, a “Prospective Staircase” type relationship can be reached where each step represents a strategic plan and each time it is completely carried out, one more step is climbed until reaching the final floor, which is represented by the stage. prospective strategy that, after all, is the floor the organization wants to reach. (Illustration 1, Page 12).

As shown above, one more item can be added to the main management documents, that is, and to better establish the idea, management would no longer start with the strategic plan but there would be a document superior to this (a meta document) the which would be the prospective strategy: (Illustration 2, Page 12).

How can it be observed, both in Illustration 2 and Illustration 1, if an organization could have a guide related to foresight, and following the appropriate steps for the development of a strategic plan taking the prospective scenario as a framework, it would be a lot more feasible for such an organization to choose, plan and achieve the desired future.

Forecasting and Foresight

Two conceptions of the future

Next, and to better understand the subject, two ways of conceiving the future for an organization will be briefly analyzed: Forecasting and Foresight.

Forecasting was the first tool to forecast the future, basically they work with other mathematical and statistical tools such as: moving averages, simple and multiple regression, smoothed etc., according to their thinking scheme the future is unique and is conditioned to evolution trend statistics.

The Foresight or the Anglo-Saxon school constitutes an evolution of Forecasting, although it retains a large part of its principles, that is, the analysis of the future is based on the evolution of trends, these trends are analyzed based on the opinion of experts, therefore both the selection of experts is vital in this type of tool.

On the other hand, the Foresight proposes that the future, although it is conditioned by the evolution of trends, which are analyzed according to the opinion of experts, one can prepare for this future by taking the pertinent measures to face it.

Its main analysis tools include: Delphi, scenario building, structured work seminars, scenario analysis and impact analysis.

The Strategic Prospective

A new conception of the Future

Finally, the third technique to analyze is the Strategic Foresight, in this case a break with the thought of the previous methods is proposed basically in two aspects:

The future does not depend on the evolution of trends but on the relationship that exists between system factors, actors and objective. In fact, under this perspective, the future with possible future scenarios will be given based on how the agents mentioned above interact, conditioning their behavior and therefore the development of events.There is not a single future but several possible future scenarios, due to As mentioned in the previous point, it can be concluded that the behavior of the agents that determine the future of the system can be varied, therefore, there is not a single future but several futures. In other words, what you are looking for with strategic foresight is not to forecast a future and are resigned to it, or to prepare to face that future;On the contrary, the essence of strategic foresight is to build the desired future, which is known as a bet scenario.

Working with Strategic Foresight also implies working with experts, turning the qualitative into quantitative through their work tools.

How?

Through the Strategic Prospective that designs conjectures, that is, "scenarios", of what could be a determined company of the future.

What are the scenarios?

Scenarios are hypothetical situations in which a company, person, organization, etc. could be found ten or twenty years ahead.

Scenarios are situations that have not happened yet, but that could happen. And as they may occur, the company must be prepared for them so as not to be surprised by the future (Bedoya, 2012). (Illustration 4, Page 13).

The attached summary table presents the characteristics of the three mentioned methods (Illustration 3, Page 13).

Despite the differences mentioned, the three methods are not mutually exclusive, in many cases they can complement each other. (Pinzás, 2009).

conclusion

The prospective today plays a very important role for private and public companies, in our country and the rest of the world; Because it is a tool that they can use, in order to create the desired future, and be able to influence it, through the people in charge of making the decisions, thus avoiding possible threats, in order to achieve greater economic benefits and social. It is dreaming of the scenario or possible scenarios, in which you intend to be in the future, staying competitive with market leaders and constantly innovating.

Strategic foresight is a tool that gives more strength to the others, such as Forecasting and Foresight, since nowadays the latter are insufficient.

An organization without prospects would be like a weather vane without direction, since it would have an uncertain future full of uncertainties and risks.

We must be generators of changes that lead us to success, it is necessary to have a long-term vision that indicates the direction in a future that we want to be, in a scenario that translates us to a sustainable economy.

Bibliography

Arreola, JC (2014). Prospective Study. Tonalá, Chiapas: Own contribution. Retrieved on October 13, 2014 Bedoya, JC (2012). Business Prospective. Obtained from http://es.slideshare.net/juankbedoya1280/prospectiva-empresarial-13315125 Berger, G. (1991) Druker, P. (1990), Gabiña, J. (2009). Strategic foresight as a weapon for the future. Spain. Retrieved 10-13, 2014, from http://juanjogabina.com/2009/08/26/la-prospectiva-estrategica-como-arma-de-futuro/Heráclito de Éfeso. (535 BC). Martín, FO (2013). Background. THE PROSPECTIVE: An indispensable planning tool in an era of change. Retrieved on 10/13/2014, from www.oei.es/salactsi/PROSPECTIVA2.PDFPinzás, AC (2009/11/16). Strategic foresight: beyond the strategic plan. Journal of the Faculty of Industrial Engineering, 12 (2), 5.Retrieved on 10/12/2014, from http://www.redalyc.org/articulo.oa?id=81620150004Vazquez Celaya, AG (2014). Strategic Prospective. Tuxtla Gutiérrez, Chis.: External Opinion. Retrieved on October 3, 2014.