Who has not investigated has no right to speak "
MAO
Competitive Intelligence is a field which creates the capabilities to analyze all the events, the information and the data in a fast and multicomprehensible way firstly for the industry and secondary for government agencies.
This is a systematic process, which gathers the information concerning the competitors to help to enhance one's own aims, and it allows: to anticipate the market trends, to look in advance to the competitor's behavior, to learn from the successes and failures of others, to get new technologies and to anticipate political, social and legislative changes.
The use of Competitive Intelligence in the proposed fields, is a tool to reduce the level of uncertainty in the decision making process. The Globalization makes mandatory a new link between the Government and the Industrial sector, as both have a common goal: the well being of the people. The integration of Competitive Intelligence to the Defense field is mandatory to allow it to cope with the current and future challenges.
By way of introduction
The objective of this presentation is to propose in our midst an issue that all those who work in the economic sector have faced and operated, but without a method and, even less, without an adequate business organization. In the public area the situation is similar. Its difficulty is that it includes many backgrounds, schools, arts, sciences and techniques. Modern times require, due to its speed and the multiplicity of information, that structured knowledge be presented, in such a way that we can become interested in it.
The contribution can be to motivate interest and contribute with its methods to decision-making in different fields, because it is known that taking them involves people, groups, markets and, also, countries.
1. Presentation
“But the biggest mistake has been, in the first place, wanting to do business in Iran. With a little thought he would have realized. At the time, he agreed with the company's business direction, like many other North American businessmen, that Iran, a stable, pro-Western, oil-rich country, presented excellent opportunities. I had not perceived the tensions that arose under the surface, I did not know anything about Ayatolla Khomeini, and I had not foreseen that one day there would be a President stupid enough to try to impose the North American way of life and beliefs on a Middle Eastern country ", reflections attributed to Roos Perot, businessman and former candidate for the presidency of the United States who had to pay for an operation to free his staff in Iran.1
These paragraphs reflect the complexity of business decisions in today's world, which must incorporate up-to-date information that encompasses the socio-political framework of the country to invest and the actions of its own government.
This ability to analyze the information in a comprehensive and timely manner to allow decision-making, both in the business and government spheres, constitutes Competitive Intelligence (CI) in its most elementary form.
The arts of this discipline start with the dawn of humanity, since every reasonably intelligent Head of State or troops wanted to know about the political and military aspects of their enemies.
In the 4th century BC Sun Tzu2 gave form to these techniques called "espionage", but aimed at obtaining the desired results through knowledge of the adversary: "All the art of war is based on deception, the experts they subjugate the enemy without fighting, take cities without resorting to assault and overthrow a state without prolonged operations ”; many of these concepts have been spilling over into the business world.
Roughly called espionage, the CI, as a discipline, is a derivation of that which was born after the Second World War as an extension and deepening of the Situation Analysis method, occupied in military assessments around the world.
This approach was called Strategic Intelligence, aimed at obtaining information for decision-making and the management of a country. From the first writings the effectiveness of the methods developed by it is mentioned, when applied to the company.
3 The application of the concept of strategy in the business field was only introduced by Ansoff in 1965. In recent years the complementation of both approaches has been developed, with old and modern methods, under the name of Competitive Intelligence.
Newsweek magazine once referred that the current world economic and political moment can be associated with the observation of a high-risk skier, who descends almost in free fall in high mountains and, those who see it, tend to think that he knows what he is doing and where he is going. Anyone who has experienced something similar is aware that the decisions that are made are not always the correct ones.
Today's world observes the first falls, in the international economic sphere. First the "dot com" stocks, the American stock market adjustment and its subsequent recessive adjustment, the fall of Argentina, concerns about Brazil, and so on. Undoubtedly they will not be the last and, it is certain that the globalization process will bring blows that, if not handled properly, will cause economic and social situations that can be unbalanced for a nation and for a company, those that do not advance at a sufficient pace or do not manage a permanent monitoring of the external environment. This makes it necessary to seek and adapt current business methods to these new realities. In this field CI can be a contribution.
2. What is intelligence?
Today's business environment is saturated with facts and events, some of which are relevant and most are not usable or significant. Relevant events should be used to obtain short, timely and useful reports.
The intelligence process starts from the capture of an event and transforms it into data, these in turn are filtered to generate information, which must be complemented with the knowledge stored in the system and, finally, with an analysis process it is arrived at to knowledge. So we have that Intelligence is the ability to answer questions, using a logical or scientific structure.
Thus, an intelligence system capable of selecting the relevant events is generated, minimizing the costs of information and analysis, maintaining permanent monitoring, thus being the link between the decision-maker and the external environment. It is an uncertainty reduction path that, by definition, is creative and has the property of not being rigid.
"The role of intelligence is to extract certainty from uncertainty, and facilitate a coherent decision, in an incoherent environment."
Etymologically, intelligence is to integrate, understand or act of understanding, so it is quite far from what is commonly defined as such.
To act, this field must be integrated into psychology, sociology, anthropology, history, geography, information technology, political science in all its fields, arts of war, economics, information sciences; This requires multidisciplinary work and having adequate preparation to combine them.
The areas of intelligence are broadly:
- Political intelligence, for the operation of the internal government and the political and social forces in their interaction processes Strategic Intelligence, for the conduct of the country in the broad military, political and economic concept Tactical or Operational Intelligence, in the military and police field Competitive Intelligence, which covers the private and public sectors, with all the implications derived from the economic and financial sphere.
Intelligence work is usually assimilated to a cycle; It begins with a gross analysis of the environment, and the appropriate method may be the Quest (environmental scrutiny) and, through this elementary intelligence operation, the Vision and Strategy of the Company or the situation analyzed are defined.
From these definitions the different situations or problems can be established. In the business field, methods of solving them have been developed, which are applicable to any situation.
Once the problem is diagnosed through a systemic analysis of it, and having the purposes of the investigation clear, that is, with the defined mission, the so-called Essential Elements of Intelligence can be determined, that is, the starting points of the investigation. Some of these may be: What companies are in business? What technologies are used? What is the main competitor's strategy? Etc.
On these questions continue the details of what to look for, where and for what; at this point the construction of scenarios and the analysis of the actors enter, now being able to formulate some working hypotheses.
The plan to implement now is what information is needed and what information do you have?
There is the permanent work of specialists, Data Mining or Data Mining, with the support of statistical interpretation, expert systems, decision support; These elements are usually called Business Intelligence (Business Intelligence).
The existing knowledge, which is different from information, in the members of the company should be added to the above. Knowledge management “which is to inventory and organize the knowledge accumulated in the past so that it can be shared”.5
What is missing and who can fill in this information and knowledge? It is the next stage. From this moment on, the search tasks are distributed, so, for example, marketing will respond to market information, the legal area of potential conflicts and their solution, etc. A search plan must be made with indications of tasks, deadlines and frequencies, selection of sources or search agency, links and contacts.
Once the information is received, the control and classification of what is received, the reliability, the analysis and interpretation will come. This analysis can be comprehensive, retrospective or prospective, depending on the requirements received.
In turn, an intelligence report must provide on the competition their status, their intentions and the ability to carry them out.
The cycle ends with the diffusion of the document and its subsequent follow-up; This seems to be a continuous cycle, it is a coming and going of interactions and feedback, for which it should not be forgotten that a decision generates new events.
This systematic process to collect and analyze information, regarding the activities and trends of the competition, to further our own objectives allows us to:
- Anticipate market changes Anticipate competitor actions Discover new competitors Learn from the successes and failures of others Learn new technologies, products and processes Anticipate political, legislative and social changes New business opportunities What do I know, what don't I know?
These concepts, according to Larry Kahamer, 6 make up Competitive Intelligence.
One of the fathers of cybernetics, Stafford Beer, states that the center of programming and control is the intelligence function, stating that an operating system must be permanently monitored. The intelligence cycle at the same time must be a viable system. This is a point that must be considered in the development of an intelligence system.
3. Competitive intelligence and the state
Since the appearance of Porter's book, 7 the role of the internal competitiveness factors of a country has become clear, in which markets, their support structure and their external possibilities are mutually recycled. The actions of the Japanese Government through MITI (Ministry of Commerce and Industry) should be remembered, with its “learn by looking” method with the Jetro organization. The truth is that practically all developed countries have CI systems in their state apparatus.
The State has different fields of action in intelligence, these must be carried out by a government with an emphasis on CI, both for the design of public economic policies, as well as for support to the private sector, etc., some actions may be:
- Financial Intelligence: The idea begins in Chile with the restricted vision of money laundering by drug trafficking. Then, following world events, terrorist money flows were considered. These are restricted versions of the knowledge that must be had about who invests, and how capital flows move in order to know the risks for the country and, on the other hand, how to influence them.
The use of economic group meshes sheds light on the risks and how a State can protect itself. As is the case with the predictable disaster in an operator's highway concessions, which were granted when the international press published a history of its financial problems.
In the case of Bond, the first owner in the privatization process of CTC (Compañía de Telecomunicaciones de Chile), with its premature and well-known economic difficulty that led to the almost unthinkable handover of CTC to Telefónica España.
On the other hand, having been clear about the composition of Endesa Spain, the actions of Chispas and Euroluz could have been promoted so that a Chilean strategic company would have maintained its actions through the influence that would be obtained over Endesa Spain. In this regard, there are quite a few cases of North American and European vetoes on company mergers for non-economic reasons and, in the Chilean case, the joint action of the Government and a businessman over the control of the Antofagasta-Bolivia railway.
Knowledge of the financial flows of economic actors provides predictive capabilities, which, when used well, can prevent crises. The seriousness and power that this type of information gives forces a supra-governmental control.
Informal movements of currency and money should not be forgotten, which in certain sectors may be more important than the official ones. In the recent Argentine crisis, according to some analysts, certain measures did not consider the informality of the trans-Andean market. On the other hand, border financial exchanges, which are impossible to avoid, can be a little more transparent through off shore systems.
- Technological Intelligence: In our country there is the experience of Intec and Fundación Chile and their capacity to act in activities such as salmon, berries, etc. As a result of the Kennedy law (prohibition of arms sales), the country was able to develop an arms production complex; These experiences must be multiplied in the search for a second stage of development.
Any country today is subject to the capture of its key business information, through the use of satellites (Echelon), information capturers (Magic Lantern, Carnivore, etc.), this situation forces us to be aware of the handling of our information strategic.
3.1. Competitive intelligence in economic policy
- Like Mega-State
The wave of transformations initiated by technological changes raises the need for an active State being, according to Drucker, quoted by Cheyre, “a negotiating and supporting state for national companies in their external exits and in the acquisition of technologies”.8
- Internal
"Probably most of the information we use, especially in the productive sectors, is available with a delay of several months." President of the Central Bank, "Strategy", December 27, 1999.9
This lack of economic intelligence is the cause of the serious mistakes made since the Asian crisis and even the crisis of the 1980s. The application of information and predictive models at the business level show that they have a great capacity to anticipate and indicate situations and problems; macroeconomic imbalances are seen in companies in advance.
- External
The knowledge of the scenarios and actors of the countries with which it is negotiated allows to achieve favorable agreements to the progress of national competitiveness, as well as the penetration policies in multinational organizations -observe Brazil- and to move in economic activities in key countries.
We must not forget the actions of other countries regarding our economic structure, thus, for example, someone can propose a project in Chile to negotiate better conditions in the place that really interests them, the simple inspection of our international actions reflects shortcomings.
The necessary monitoring of NGOs, among other organizations, which can act with external funding to obtain first-source information on key productive sectors and try to de-empower them should not be overlooked, such as indigenous activism against the forestry sector, the ecological one on the same sector or to stop the use of cheap hydraulic energy, etc.
It may seem somewhat paranoid, but there are too many coincidences between them and the countries that finance them, since as a result of the September 11 attacks in the United States, it has been established that they are organizations that can be used for different purposes. In Chile, there is experience in this regard.
Each of these activities has a shadow called Counterintelligence, which is nothing other than the protection of the antecedents, denying the information, neutralizing their activities by protecting the structure itself.
4. Competitive Intelligence in the company
"If changes made outside an organization are greater than those made within it, then that organization is nearing completion."
The action of the CI is mentioned in the formulation of the Vision and Strategy of the Company, that is, the way to capture the relevant aspects of the external environment, to position it appropriately within it.
Within the strategic framework, in general, the current company is organized by Functional Strategic Areas (AEF) or by Strategic Business Areas (AEN).
To explain the role of Intelligence in the AEF, Hax A. Majluf is cited, 11 who define it as:
- Financial intelligence. Effort aimed at understanding current national and external financial markets, their characteristics, accessibility and trends. Intelligence in human resource management. Understanding of management practices in those markets and the internal and external changes to be expected. Acquisition Intelligence. Understanding of vital manufacturing markets, determining changes to avoid obsolescence. Marketing Intelligence. Find out the position of competitors, to anticipate their future movements.
A suitable way of accomplishing these tasks is formulated by Porter, already mentioned.12
The application of these concepts is a common practice today in successful companies such as Nestle, L'Oreal, etc. A recent event in the Asian crisis was Samsung, which according to Newsweek, differentiating itself from the other chaebols (Groups), grasped its internal situation and the external environment early. His concern was seen as cunning but was the fruit of information gathering and meticulous analysis by his corporate intelligence arm.
As an extension of the actions of this company and, perhaps due to our lack of follow-up to a Chinese mission approximately six years ago, it has managed to introduce in an agreement with Kazakhstan, 150 thousand tons. of copper, in China, displacing Codelco.
The foregoing leaves us as an experience that Chilean companies must observe the so-called Shanghai Group of 5 (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kygystan, Uzbeskistan, Turknistan).13
5. Defense systems
5.1. Initial Concerns
Can today the political-military action be separated from the possibilities of acting of the economic and business sector? How are they combined, just to support the war effort or are they part of the decision of the conflict and can they even avoid it? Will the military sector be increasingly dissuasive in relation to the solution of a conflict or will they act in conjunction with the business sector? How will technological development be connected with military development and its interaction with private, internal and external companies that develop it?
International politics, according to the opinions developed by Paul Chaves, 14 following Dr. Stanley Hoffman, “is a state of war, a competition of units either states or corporations in a state of nature that do not know any other restrictions than those imposed by the changing needs of the game and the superficial convenience of the players ”.
Conceived in this way the international game, a country must be permanently reinforcing and applying its power and the pressures that it can carry out, coordinating its political, social, economic, technological and military capacities as a whole and, for this it is necessary the use of Strategic Intelligence and the application of CI. This is part of the modern concept of security, according to the open position in this world of globalization and emerging multipolarity.15
When thinking about successful decisions related to the topics discussed, some can be mentioned to reflect on the questions posed:
- The end of the USSR could have occurred due to the erroneous appreciation of its leaders that the answer to "Star Wars" was to invest all factors of production in the development of a potentially similar system, that is, of neutralization. They failed to consider the true demands shown by the vital indicators of the population; the decision should have been structural change, not the war model. The destruction of the USSR was not done by the Galaxies, but by economic pressure and its own people.The loss of Laguna del Desierto, by Chile, was partly the result of excellent Argentine intelligence work and the proper use of it by part of the Executive of that nation and, by contrast, the lack or waste on the part of Chile of this function The signing of the Agreement with the European Union,According to a professor at an important German university, it was due to an adequate appreciation of the moment of the community and the deep knowledge of points and people to move. The rapid American military advance in Afghanistan was the result, among other things, judging by information from press of that country, due to the occupation by the infantry of the territory thanks to the fact that said patrols marked with laser the targets for the action of missiles carried by radio-controlled airplanes or infantrymen who received information, in a campaign notebook, of the advance of their enemies which allowed to eliminate them with long-range precision weapons, etc.The rapid American military advance in Afghanistan was the result, among other things, judging by press reports from that country, of the occupation by the infantry of the territory thanks to the fact that these patrols marked with laser the targets for the action of transported missiles. by radio-controlled planes or infantrymen who received information, in a campaign notebook, of the advance of their enemies, which allowed them to be eliminated with long-range precision weapons, etc.The rapid American military advance in Afghanistan was the result, among other things, judging by press reports from that country, of the occupation by the infantry of the territory thanks to the fact that these patrols marked with laser the targets for the action of transported missiles. by radio-controlled planes or infantrymen who received information, in a campaign notebook, of the advance of their enemies, which allowed them to be eliminated with long-range precision weapons, etc.of the advance of his enemies which allowed to eliminate them with long-range precision weapons, etc.of the advance of his enemies which allowed to eliminate them with long-range precision weapons, etc.
This type of technology can be classified, but there is much of it present in patent banks and in companies, not all of it is unattainable, and it is the result of private activity associated in some cases with military demand.
The old Colonel Berger, my father, a trainer of more than ten generations of General Staff Officers, said that "in our continent a war would be won by those who know how to throw stones better, since the resources of a modern conflict will be exhausted very soon", Today the challenge is to generate low-cost technological stones complemented with national development.
Can a country generate its own technologies without the support of a defense sector or the State? The answer is no, since an important part of development in such evolved societies, such as the United States, has been the public-private combination. Thus, for example, the firm Oracle, the largest seller of databases according to The Economist, grew up in consulting jobs with the CIA.
In Chile there was a successful technological development in the 1970s, but the lack of constant and stable policies for the renewal and export of military elements frustrated this public-private partnership. Here we present a new application of CI methods, both internal and external, by the defense system.
When configuring a war plan in its economic part, can it be done without fully understanding the functioning of the economy and the strengths, weaknesses, objectives, strategies and contact networks and influences of economic and financial groups? The answer, based on experience, is that a bad plan would come out. Working on this part is the field of CI methods.
5.2. A thinking scheme for a defense model, with an emphasis on economic POWER
The complexity of events in today's world requires having some operating model, in order to channel the search for information to achieve decision-making capacity and use of resources.
The starting point is the vision of international insertion of the country in a time horizon, on which the State must project international policy efforts in the diplomatic and economic field. For example:
- In Chile, the alternative of integration to Mercosur can be defined. Seek the position of Interrelated Island16 similar to the position posed for New Zealand, with natural regional support and ties with the US and EU. Or an action accommodating to the events.17
A defense system starts from the probability of conflict, which this vision brings with it, or the power necessary to avoid it, international roles, the need to participate in national development and stability.
This point can be worked on in the same way as the management that is done for the search for a vision of the company and the CI methods to appreciate, in depth, the external and internal actors that can affect the cohesion and national projection, which were hinted at above and will be deepened later, adding the methods of Strategic Intelligence work.
In the international field, the Complex Interdependence approaches should be considered, that is, an approach in which the analysis of the country or of the interconnected countries should be opened by interrelating the goals of the actors, the power resources, the most relevant situations, etc. 18
This vision of Chile must necessarily include globalization and the search for a position as a nation-state in a world where identity can be lost. The analysis of geopolitical forces or geographic-economic pressures must be present in the following model:
- On these appraisals, an effort optimization or cost minimization function can be elaborated that involves economic development, its vectors, capital and labor increase and their productivity, the technological impact is added as an explanatory factor.
Subject these vectors to economic and cultural restrictions. As balancing factors, there is social and political development, negotiating capacities and the traditional values of the community, these are reflected in restrictions or potentialities.
- The application of economic power must be reflected in a coordinated action of the companies with the Government, not only in the military effort, but also as elements of action in geopolitics.The firepower and services that are needed are opened in vectors, for institutional branches of defense and theaters of conflicts, possible scenarios; This optimization function must be subject to economic restrictions, availability of human, material and technological resources. The way that war resources work, as will be seen later, must resemble a permanent action system, both in training sessions and in the event of armed conflict; at this point, the model is recycled with the factors of economic growth and technology already mentioned.In this way, it is possible to think in an integrated way about the defense system and from it will come the search instructions - essential elements of Intelligence - both military, political, and those in the field of CI.
This whole model can be transformed into a network of interactions and energized. For those who have information on Operations Research, it is suggested to think about it with the Linear Programming scheme, the application of this type of scheme was widely developed by the Rand Corporation, a research institution formed by the Pentagon and university institutions, in the 60s.
On this last point, Sweden has developed the Network Centric Warfare network system aimed at making the most of the economic technical resources in defense; This is interesting since an ambitious defense and research program derives from it, since this country does not aspire to be a power and has certain similarities with the Chilean position.19
The application of this system must be a continuous process of acquisition, manufacturing and permanent research, not by waves, in order to make the most of the national capacity and not go through periods of obsolescence.
It has sought to emphasize the relationship of economic intelligence as a contribution to a defense system and, its integration, to the effort of positioning the country in the globalization process and the necessary internal balances to give continuity to our national projection in view of the welfare of all the inhabitants of the country, which is the end of all efforts.
With what has been described so far, it is intended to have demonstrated the contribution of the CI, in terms of the need for Interdependence between the State and the company.
Any application of power to achieve national objectives must reflect a coordinated action of companies and the State and, within it, with Defense.
5.3. Scope of a National Intelligence System
The need for an intelligence system, rather a culture of intelligence, in the business society of a small and isolated country is important, and its contact with the public sector should constitute a reciprocal action, since it starts from the competitive advantage of a country is in its generation.
“Imagine a wide network of private analysts, private sector competitive information analysts, and official information analysts sharing non-proprietary information… rapidly communicating via computer on topics of mutual interest and instantly gathering opinions, insights and data from multiple media… linking national information with national competitiveness ”, this image was developed by Robert Steelle and commented on by the Tofflers.20
This same author in 1993 almost predicted the events of the evolution of terrorism that has been seen; is an analyst who believes that today open sources allow great successes.
When the intelligence organization that is being implemented in our country is analyzed, which would be an office, one can appreciate the dominance of a police vision and not of Strategic Intelligence. It could be suggested the structuring of a network that covers the systems of the Armed Forces, police, the State Defense Council, Ministries such as Foreign Relations, Economy, Finance and with the participation of key institutions of the private sector. The services that need it would come to this network, orienting it more towards a small group of coordinating analysts and for each part of the system to fulfill its functions with a greater disposition towards the intelligence function.
6. Some notable methodological points
In the work of the intelligence cycle, different methodologies from the business and social areas are combined. In the following points some scopes of those that the author has developed with some degree of research are made. This approach does not need to be comprehensive.
6.1. From technological surveillance to competitive intelligence
At this point the approach of Escorsa and Maspons will be used, who recommend “investigating what is being investigated”; In this way, they will be aware of emerging technologies, their dynamics, their lines of development, the study centers and those in charge of them.
One way is to pay attention to web pages, databases of producers and distributors, especially patents and technology. In one example, they demonstrate the linkage of Derwent Data, which manages patent bases in Europe (EPAT) and the United States (USPA), with Thompson Corporation, a specialist in military technology.
Thus, profiles of companies with their current and potential technological development are obtained, using relational indicators, technological maps, statistical models and data mining; it is possible to rely on bibliometrics or scientometrics.
This task is widely developed in countries such as Sweden, Holland and France, and in the case of the latter, in Institutes such as CSI., CRM., CNRS. and IRIT., there is a collaboration of the public, private and military sectors.
6.2. Global scanning
In an approximate way, the methods developed by the cosmetics company L'Oreal can be followed, which aimed at its insertion in a world market of high competition, from a local position, 21 being its remarkable results by reaching, in a short time, a avant-garde position in the world market, which makes them applicable to other areas.
Maps of the Future
They refer to the global framework with a perspective analysis of the geopolitical situation, the progress of the economy, and the threats and opportunities that arise for companies. In this table, priority should be given to the areas, events and countries relevant for the purposes of the research being carried out; For example, in 1999, the following were interesting: Asian Crisis, China, Russia, European Union, United States, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina; as well as the relationship of the United States with Brazil and Argentina, the actions of the EU, etc., as well as an appreciation and projection of the country's relations with this environment.
Probable board
With these macro antecedents, the following aspects can be developed, as an example, for the aforementioned cosmetics company: sociological (changes in the role of women), competitive (competitors interested in new technologies), technological (Japanese research in biotechnology), market (new purchasing trends), legislative (legal impact by the European Union), geographical (potential of India and China), of the product lines of this company. This is how the thick outlines of the future scenarios are marked.
6.3. Country analysis
The appreciation of the economic and political development of the country itself or of the one in which it is intended to invest, constitutes a prospective exercise that avoids serious subsequent situations, and should be highlighted in this field:
6.3.1. Risk country
It is the attempt to measure the ability of a country to pay its financial commitments in the same currency in which they have been contracted, it is usually called "Risk Classification in Foreign Currency", the risk of payment in local currency should not be excluded. To these concepts are added aspects such as: levels of development, social indicators and coherence in the political system. The companies that do so are, among others: Fitch, S&P, Moody etc. Each Investment Bank or Investment Adviser delivers reports with investment risk recommendations; these reports also usually reflect the required returns on the foreign debt papers of each country.
6.3.2. Extensions to these studies
Experience says that before making the decision to invest in a specific country, the information provided by the rating agencies should be deepened and that some points should be considered, such as:
- Consistencies in the analysis of GDP, the question to be answered is: How representative is this figure in a given country? Were the US $ 8,000 per capita in Argentina in 1996 consistent or sustainable with the rest of the country's indicators? Is there coherence with the human development indicators? On what basis are the macroeconomic indicators, 1986 or 1996 being built in the case of Chile, and what does this mean?
To obtain a better answer, it is necessary to observe in detail the evolution of a set of indicators, such as: GDP expressed in dollars, variations in consumption and investment rates, foreign investment, solvency indicators, liquidity, monetary and fiscal policy, foreign and labor market, as well as the functioning of the capital market and the investment climate.
Verification of these data can be supported by some real observations such as imports of consumer goods, capital, sale of vehicles, construction materials, electrical appliances, white goods, furniture, etc.
Monitoring the economic development of Argentina and Chile, under these indicators, would undoubtedly have been able to show, on the one hand, the high probability of crisis and slow development, on the other.22
- Supporting indicators. The current world provides other studies whose evolution over time give ideas of where a country is moving, among them: competitiveness ranking, human development index, transparency index, security indicators, business cost, corruption, etc. Political Analysis. Undoubtedly the most complicated situations come from institutional imbalances which, in turn, lead to complex political events and vice versa, and it is for this reason that this area deserves special consideration, and without attempting to give a recipe some steps are suggested, as that the main demands of nationals and the ability to respond to these concerns, together with an appreciation of the economic situation.
Therefore, it is necessary to capture these antecedents, since with them models of political equilibrium or crisis can be developed, which we will call "Thermal Sensation of the Actors":
- Government approval Evolution of political tendencies Evolution of support from different political actors Definition of actors (political parties, tendencies within them, unions, investor groups, etc.) Dominant ideas correlated with the actors can give guidance of the conflicts to expect Characteristics of the operators or political leaders (psychological, decision process, political interests, personal, etc.) Non-organic groups in the process of evolution that represent some possible change. (Movements, NGOs, etc.) Appreciation of the probabilities of policy change.
With the points already analyzed we could take into account the statement of Sloam, editor of Newsweek, who said “but if you cannot predict the future, do not despair. You are not alone. If we knew how the market will go, investing would not be fun, would it? "
6.3.3. Knowing the competition
The sector and subsector
The first step is the in-depth knowledge of the sector in which it operates, both in the markets and in the technological trends and actors, at the national and international level, through the rapid transfer or exchange of roles. This study determines the company or companies to be concerned about, since there are sectors in which the scenario changes in a few months.
Clear company identification
The business group to which it belongs and how this membership affects the decisions of the competition. In these cases, the analysis makes it possible to explain attitudes that seem irrational, such as sales to improve the group's cash flow or alter accounts to facilitate mergers or stock exchanges.
For these purposes, it is useful to visualize meshes of the groups in terms of property relations of the companies that constitute them and, if possible, sales flows and financial movements between them.
Internal organization of the competitor
There are many questions to be answered, some of them being: organization to face the market, to manage itself, its computer systems, labor relations, etc.; in everything that allows to know their current situation, their capacities and weaknesses; Techniques such as Benchmarking make it possible to compare the competition and the company itself with sector indicators.
Corporate culture
The capabilities of a company are conditioned to its culture, and there are numerous approaches to address this issue. One of them is the classification of the members of the company by types of logic, since their combination generates a type of business conduct with its virtues and defects. This makes it difficult, if not impossible, an attitude of the competition that does not fit in their sociological pattern. There are some more colorful classifications such as paranoid, compulsive, histrionic, depressive companies, etc.
Actors
Knowing the structure and mental scheme of the decision maker is very important and this can be seen by studying his personality, using techniques such as: psychological, graphological, content interpretation, the study of the type of motivations or combinations of intuition, experience, knowledge or organizational support that motivated your previous decisions, how you were trained, what you read, who you admire, etc.
The competitor's strategy
Every company has a strategy, formulated or implicit, being the most difficult to predict those without any direction, with a permanent change, without clear ideas, etc. In this regard, it is often difficult to think that they really do not have leadership, since the current world forces strategies on the limit (on the Edge), which is nothing other than industries in rapid change, continuous flow of advantages, constant change, moving to the rhythm of time, outlining a semi-coherent strategic direction, continuous reinvestment, etc. 23 24
This complicates the CI, whose main goal is to discover what is the strategic movement of competition and knowledge of the environment of the world, the country and the industry.
The handling of the principles of war, applications of military science are an aid to imagine what the competition may think.
Once the strategy is discovered, the pending question is: Do you have the capacity to develop it? The answer will come from the points already discussed.
6.4. Stage construction
Overview
Throughout this presentation, the concept of scenario has been present, which is nothing more than the most flexible prospective technique of the approximately twenty selected by the Millennium Project of United Nations University. Flexible, because it can incorporate qualitative and quantitative techniques and even make use of the other methods, which are Cross Impact Analysis, Delphi, Games and Simulation, Econometrics, etc.
Those who analyzed L'Oreal's experience in the construction of scenarios recognize that it allows creating events, not having to react, adapting to the changing world, there is no ultimate goal, decision elements in various areas, work in extreme situations and can be released of the tyranny of quantification.25 “A scenario is a set of circumstances that occur -or may occur in the future- in a certain field -whether this material or abstract-, within which one or more actors and interests operate that must be analyzed with a high degree of coherence and unity of criteria ”.26
A scenario is similar to the formulation of a project that simulates a future defining the activities in time, in a Pert type mesh, specifying the expected sequence of events and the behaviors so that it is fulfilled; Some of the relevant schools in the construction of scenarios are: Battelle's Basics, Comprehensive Situation Mapping (CSM), Computer Driven Simulation, The Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies, The European Commission,
The French School, etc.
One of the key acts is to give it a global reach and then focus it on areas relevant to the business or research topic.
Mathematical models
The use of econometric analysis or operational research in the construction of scenarios has the following advantages: correct interpretation of the past and present, and ordering relevant information for the future. The mathematical solution must be guiding and not normative; The most graphic way of using these means is given by Arnoldo Harberger, dean of the University of Chicago, stating that “a model is proposed, information is sought, the model is solved, one has the answer, one looks at the ceiling, look at the floor and finally a figure is pulled up his sleeve ”, this demonstration of common sense indicates how qualitative and quantitative criteria can be combined.
The use of these models is often useful to know what information is relevant.
The Fifth Discipline
Peter Senge27 revived the research of Jay Forrester28 whose book, written in 1971 and developed in the 1960s, laid the foundations for system dynamics, his research was applied to the designs of protection systems. In the United States they teach the consequences of information lags and delays in decision making, understanding this scheme helps to think differently about the opportunity of the same. This is a special consideration in stage construction.
6.5. Informal work
Once all the previous analyzes have been carried out, some vigilance on the competition, suppliers, possible new players, certain market measurements, visits, attendance at seminars attended by the competition may be necessary, perhaps organizing some events, interacting with executives, etc.. Certain ethical limitations are imposed in this area.
6.6. IC software
The United States Association of Competitive Intelligence Professionals, in a work presented by Leonard Fuld, analyzes twelve CI software based on how each stage of the intelligence cycle, already analyzed, works and affirms that the building these tools is unfinished business.29
The software in the company
The entry of integrated software in companies such as resource management (ERP), user relations (CMR), or shared tools (ASP), in addition to databases, trade mechanisms, search for security, storage, flows, etc., provides means adaptable to IC requirements.
There is a credit card custody software that can be very useful in IC (Searchspace) to control irregular activities.
Knowing which of these media the competition operates is an indicator of their capabilities and, on the other hand, a channel for the company's own systems to support intelligence work.
War room, situation room
If a graphic or visual capacity is added to the information management, in real time, following the centenary military experience, the understanding of situations and their possible handling, as the events unfold, makes it possible to operate information with degrees of Variable centralization, allowing adaptation to changes in scenarios and appreciation of situations.
This scheme was developed by Stafford Beer, already mentioned, in the 70s in our country and, a posteriori, has been put into practice by some European consortia.
On the basis of these principles, Shaker and Gembicki30 have developed The War Room for the visualization and management of the intelligence cycle, breaking the conceptual rigidity and introducing an animator (quarterback) that brings the system to life.
A variant can be the representation, on screen or set of screens working in a web environment (Internet or Intranet), based on the Windows operating system, or similar, of information in real time or delayed, rescued from different sources using software type Map Guide or similar.
The information can be georeferenced or referred to spreadsheets, with coordinates similar to the spreadsheets.
In turn, the georeferenced information can come from:
- AVL vehicle tracking systems, APL people and equipment, alerts in alarm systems, etc. with all the signals and information that they contain The incorporation into these maps of information stored in databases, of information management systems of graphics or documentary, administration management systems (ERP, CRM, etc.). The information used by incorporating geographic references (plans), to road planning systems, mining, catastrophes, distribution, dispatch, etc. The information that is generated in the cycle or flow of decision making, such as: the intelligence investigation cycle. The definition of the mission, essential elements, search systems, etc. are sequenced. Data Mining, expert systems, decision support work, etc. can be integrated.
This tendency to generate balanced scorecards is given in CRM. such as People Soft, based on the book The Balance Scorecard. In addition, packages have appeared on the market that integrate geographic, database, document management and communications applications related to police, civil defense and disaster control (Unicon Telecommunication).
From the trends noted, the impression that remains is that the management of an intelligence system runs along this line.
7. Final notes
The IC Application. In the proposed areas, it should be the appropriate tool for the Reduction of Uncertainty in decision-making. Globalization imposes a vision of the State-Company, given their common purpose, the well-being of the nationals. The integration of the CI to Defense with its methods is a contribution not only necessary, but essential to overcome current challenges. The integration must assume a flexible, but regulated operational organization. The information must be directed to the highest levels, in which the decision is made, for its processing and incorporation.
1 Follet, Kent. "The Wings of the Eagle."
2 Sun Tzu, The Art of War. Editorial Fundamentos. Spain.
3 Sherman, Kent, Strategic Intelligence. 1948. Editorial Pleamar. Buenos Aires. Platt Washington, Production of Strategic Intelligence. Editorial Struharger 1983. Buenos Aires. These two texts are the beginning of the topic of Strategic Intelligence.
4 Chaves, Paul. For the eyes of the President only. No Editor. Costa Rica. Excellent text on intelligence, apparently linked to the University of Costa Rica, 1995.
5 Escorsa, Pere; Maspon, Ramón. From Technology Watch to Competitive Intelligence. 2001. Prentice Hall. An excellent approach seen from Europe with an emphasis on technology.
6 Kahame, Larry. Competitive Intelligence. 1996 Simon & Shuster. It follows the Platt line but with a business focus.
7 Porter, Michael. The competitive advantage of the nations. 1990 Ed. Vergara.
8 Cheyre, Juan Emilio. The Economy, a new variant. Doctoral Thesis Complutense University of Madrid 2001. It is a very interesting vision of international politics with an analysis method applied to the Southern Cone.
9 Strategy Newspaper. December 27, 1999.
10 Chaves, Paul. For the eyes of the President only. without Editor. Costa Rica. Excellent text on Intelligence, apparently linked to the University of Costa Rica, 1995.
11 Hax Arnold, Majluf. Management of Companies with Strategic Vision. 1993, Editorial Dolmen.
12 See note No. 7.
13 Toro Dávila, Agustín, Chacón Morales, Alejandra, Pérez Le Fort, Martín. “The Shanghai Group of 5”, “Politics and Strategy” Magazine, National Academy of Political and Strategic Studies (ANEPE), Issue No. 86, period January-May 2002. pp. 77-97.
14 See note No. 4.
15 See note No. 8.
16 Omahe, Keniche. “The End of the Nation State”, Editorial Andrés Bello, 1995.
17 Berger, Iván “Competitive Intelligence”, Thesis Institute of Political Sciences University of Chile -2000
18 See note Nº 8.
19 González, Patricio. Special Envoy Europe prepares the War on the Net. El Mercurio newspaper 2002. Reference is made to Brigadier Michael Moore, author of the system.
20 Toffler, Alvin and Heidy. The Wars of the Future. 1994. Plaza & Janes.
21 Ibid.
22 See note No. 16.
23 Brown, Shona; Eisnhard, Kathleen. Competiting on the Edge. 1999 Book Sumary Trend Management.
24 Mintzberg, H. and Lampel, J. Strategy Safari 1999 Book Summary Trend Management.
25 Robert, Salmon, De Linares Yolaine “Competive Intelligence-Economica”, 1999. It is a text in which the authors are executives of L'Oreal.
26 Balbi, Raúl; Crespo, Maria. Capturing the Future. 1999 Format Edit.Bs.As. 1999. It is a scenario building book adapted to Intelligence work.
27 Senge, Peter. The Fifth Discipline. Gránica- Vergara. 1990.
28 See note No. 25.
29 SCIP Magazine. March. 2001.
30 Shaker and Gemdicki. The War Room. Mc. Graw Hill 1998.
Bibliography
1. Follet, Kent. "The Wings of the Eagle." Editorial Grigalbo.
2. Sun Tzu. "The Art of War". Editorial Fundamentos. Spain.
3. Sherman, Kent. "Strategic Intelligence". 1948. Editorial Pleamar. Buenos Aires. Platt Washington. "Production of Strategic Intelligence". 1983. Editorial Struharger. Buenos Aires.
4. Chaves, Paul. "For the eyes of the President only." 1995. No publisher. Costa Rica.
5. Escorsa, Pere; Maspon, Ramón. "From Technology Watch to Competitive Intelligence". 2001. Prentice Hall.
6. Kahamer, Larry. "Competitive Intelligence". 1996. Simon & Shuster.
7. Porter, Michael. "The competitive advantage of the nations". 1990. Editorial Vergara.
8. Cheyre, Juan Emilio. "The Economy, a new variant". 2001. Doctoral Thesis Complutense University of Madrid.
9. Strategy Journal. Dec 1999.
10. Hax Arnold, Majluf. “Business Management with a Strategic Vision”. 1993. Editorial Dolmen.
11. Toro Dávila, Agustín; Chacón Morales, Alejandra; Pérez Le Fort, Martín. "The Shanghai Group of 5". Magazine "Politics and Strategy", No. 86, 2002. National Academy of Political and Strategic Studies (ANEPE).
12. Ohmae, Keniche. "The End of the Nation State." 1995. Editorial Andrés Bello.
13. Berger, Ivan. "Competitive intelligence". 2000. Thesis Institute of Political Sciences University of Chile.
14. González, Patricio. "Europe prepares the War in Network". Daily Special Envoy "El Mercurio". 2002.
15. Toffler, Alvin and Heidy. "The Wars of the Future." 1994. Plaza & Janes.
16. Robert, Salmon; From Linares, Yolaine. "Competitive Intelligence Economica". 1999.
17. Brown, Shona; Eisnhard, Kathleen. "Competiting on the Edge". 1999. Book Sumary -Trend Management.
18. Mintzberg, H. and Lampel, J. "Strategy Safari." 1999. Book Sumary Trend Management.
19. Balbi, Raúl; Crespo, Maria. "Capturing the Future". 1999. Edit Format. Bs. As.
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Except in the parts where the quotation is in quotation marks in the text, the book citations are about general concepts of the mentioned text applied according to the line of thought of the author of this article.
