I.- NEGOTIATION AND THE CREATION OF TRUMP'S CHAOS?
At present we live an international panorama with the confrontation of several countries, with their respective cultures: Communist China, Russia and the USA with their nationalisms, the European Union with its traditionalist style, India with its silence and each one with their respective negotiators: Yi Jinping, Putin, Trump, Juncker and Modi and with the participation of other leaders such as: North Korea, Iran, Syria and Israel. This is a unique opportunity to learn about and anticipate the kind of behavior that can be expected from them. Although the most difficult thing is: anticipating the responses of the respective counterparts as we say in two articles: "The not surprising great world uproar of Trump" published at the beginning of his government and the previous year "The limits of negotiation or negotiation without limits…".
1.- Each negotiator has its characteristics that are expressed in the different possible scenarios. At the beginning of 2017, we anticipated, among others, a scenario in which Trump was going to surprise Americans in the conduct of the country and its foreign relations, with actions that were unknown to his position and to observers, supporters or not of his ideas and acts. It is foreseen in said disclosure document that it was very likely to be a controversial actor. On the other hand, his counterparts (who could at some point even become his allies) in different negotiations are also controversial personalities: Putin, who has taken control of Crimea, has a strong military position in Syria in an internal war fierce and maintains a tight grip on his country. Xi Jinping, with his communism within the country and his extreme capitalism in the foreign international market,it has continued with a policy of world competition for markets, in its silent imperial advance for control of the world economy, and that does not remove its support for the North Korean sub-negotiator. Juncker, from an EU that has struggled for many years between slow and unclear leaderships and that dismembers itself in micro nationalisms of smaller countries. Modi, from an India that already exceeds 1,200 million inhabitants and a GDP that surpasses that of France. Merkel, who continues the tour aspiring to maintain hegemony, awaiting the post-Brexit scenarios, fearing the departure of Italy, or the division of the Spanish monarchy. And Shinzo Abe, from Japan, remaining a downcast and conservative powerhouse.and that it does not remove its support for the North Korean sub-negotiator. Juncker, from an EU that has struggled for many years between slow and unclear leaderships and that dismembers itself in micro nationalisms of smaller countries. Modi, from an India that already exceeds 1,200 million inhabitants and a GDP that surpasses that of France. Merkel, who continues the tour aspiring to maintain hegemony, awaiting the post-Brexit scenarios, fearing the departure of Italy, or the division of the Spanish monarchy. And Shinzo Abe, from Japan, remaining a downcast and conservative powerhouse.and that it does not remove its support for the North Korean sub-negotiator. Juncker, from an EU that has struggled for many years between slow and unclear leaderships and that dismembers itself in micro nationalisms of smaller countries. Modi, from an India that already exceeds 1,200 million inhabitants and a GDP that surpasses that of France. Merkel, who continues the tour aspiring to maintain hegemony, awaiting the post-Brexit scenarios, fearing the departure of Italy, or the division of the Spanish monarchy. And Shinzo Abe, from Japan, remaining a downcast and conservative powerhouse.200 million inhabitants and a GDP that surpasses that of France. Merkel, who continues the tour aspiring to maintain hegemony, awaiting the post-Brexit scenarios, fearing the departure of Italy, or the division of the Spanish monarchy. And Shinzo Abe, from Japan, remaining a downcast and conservative powerhouse.200 million inhabitants and a GDP that surpasses that of France. Merkel, who continues the tour aspiring to maintain hegemony, awaiting the post-Brexit scenarios, fearing the departure of Italy, or the division of the Spanish monarchy. And Shinzo Abe, from Japan, remaining a downcast and conservative powerhouse.
2.- Why Trump?Trump is chosen for this note because, paradoxically, of all the actors at stake, he is the one about which there is more public information to analyze and criticize him. Regarding the other negotiators there are few and mere speculations, vetoes of the press and censorship for being authoritarian paradictations or imperfect or cryptic democracies. In this cauldron of so many ongoing negotiations and negotiators, Trump is the initiator of many controversies, which has meant that he is one of the most criticized US president, inside and outside its borders. But since he took office, the world is no longer the same in terms of commercial, political, military and cultural relations. How to get to the extreme that in a few months of government there are many who would prefer that it not continue.How is it that Trump manages to move so many passions - of adversaries and supporters - to achieve his ends.
We have reached a state of relations between very important and powerful countries, which has not been known since the end of the Second World War and whose consequences or results may be very different since some threats will become solutions, other threats will remain latent and some will go a long way until they are forgotten. In these circumstances: Is it not that in the current circumstances it would be essential to use more than one alternative negotiation scenario to anticipate the possible results?
II.- COULD TRUMP TRANSFORM FROM SINGULAR TRADER TO INTERSTICIAL NEGOTIATOR?
1.- Some initial distinctions. And then let's see what makes and distinguishes the negotiator Mr. Trump? The first creates differences because: (a) it has the character, (b) the power, (c) the information, (c) the time to do it, (d) from the need to restore to its country what it supposes is the loss of its economic supremacy in recent decades. Whether we like it or not, and (e) it surprises to fully fulfill or attempt to fulfill its electoral promises. Second establishes brief and more or less clear objectives… with ambiguity, based on the creation of those differences. Third use negotiation modalitiesalready enunciated in the 80s, such as the power of words among others. His tweets are: at first only words. Words that irritate their "detractors" (rather, they get irritated with them), probably because they know that, if the result that negotiator expects is achieved, something very dear to them will deteriorate and, on the other hand, curiously leaves them silent. who believe that they can "benefit" if their proposals are fulfilled.
2.- Business then I exist, if you exalt yourself I empower myself. But we should hope that those who feel harmed, by their words, understand, If they have negotiated for years!, Especially as it should happen with the leaders of governments, companies, the press and the media that is thanks to those “Created differences” is that much higher results could be achieved for all. Unfortunately, it is not possible to give in this note all the necessary arguments to achieve rational behavior in an untimely negotiation, although more lights on the subject are enunciated below.
The first analysis that is then advanced is that: negotiation is moving from "the art of resolving differences" to understanding that "it is the art of creating and / or amplifying differences… and then resolving them. "
Consequently, we have been overwhelmed by the attacks and complaints from many world leaders, from different positions and sectors, and from international analysts and commentators who answer or attempt to interpret the phrases of the tycoon and president, due to the negative repercussions they could have on the world. future and, therefore, there is a generalized criticism that: this is not the style that the President of the most powerful nation in the world should have. As if that, conservatively, could never be altered.
3.- Past negotiation lessons. Today it seems that old lessons on how to reach quality agreements are forgotten: "Negotiate based on positions or principles?", Or "Do not look at the positions or statements but the interests behind the positions, actions and reactions in the complex and serious trading game ”including those of commentators, analysts, consultants and the media, etc. It is forgotten that the use of styles and against styles of negotiation is part of a strategy and its tactics with a certain purpose, as we already taught in the 80s negotiation academies in times of the classic: "Yes, in agreement" or the classic best seller "The Art of the Deal"by Donald J. Trump, Tony Schwartz. But the biggest oversight in the midst of all these international bargaining and negotiation games is that Mr. Trump's main negotiation is: within his own country.
4.- The use of power, cunning, time, lack of formation and tension is inherent in negotiation.The essentials in negotiation are sometimes invisible to the eyes of a negotiator clouded by annoyance and animosity when reasons are mixed with emotions, or when negotiations are pushed to the limit or after the limit, and when after the break comes many times the best agreement, under a "singular approach", as observed within the USA and North Korea and China on nuclear weapons. Without forgetting that yes, China was the one that started decades ago "the greatest economic war of the last 50 years", silently to take over the West with its products and purchase of companies and other practices, in search of becoming the first world power, or that Russia is commanded, for decades, by a cold former director of the KGB or a silent India - in technology mode - that advances day by day,while we continue to await the outcome of the European Disunity.
5.- The processes: What is the logic and knowledge operating behind the apparent chaos?The complex scenario of multiple negotiations allows us to analyze findings, synthesize conclusions and see the birth of new paradigms in terms of global and local negotiation. The above is possible, because as independent consultants we can have a slightly more open position by supporting ourselves with expert negotiation systems that allow us to objectify and cool the analyzes, or with the use of negotiating profiles from different cultures and countries. So as consultants we are in contact with centers of excellence and we exchange with other prominent professionals of different backgrounds in these complex matters for decades that we have in mind when we enter the field of methods, strategies, tactics, modalities,the styles and monitoring of national and international negotiation processes to interpret and anticipate the intricate processes and dynamics that are currently at work on the world stage.
6.- The advantage of negotiating with those who know how to negotiate. For decades we have worked, written on the subjectand trained hundreds of university students, executives, innovators and entrepreneurs, in addition to assisting managers in very different real negotiation processes. As a result - and in addition to the abundant literature available today - we have accumulated extensive own and indirect experience on the subject of negotiation. We consider it worth the effort to share it with new generations so that: they assimilate, apply, enrich and question them, thus expanding the capital and negotiating know-how of the country and the analytical capacity of the negotiation processes underway and to come. The foregoing under the conviction that: "it is always better to negotiate with those who know how to negotiate instead of haggling" and that a country with greater negotiating talent has less risk, greater profitability and can even increase its GDP to move closer to development.
III.- LESSONS ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING AND MASSES ON SCENE
For all of the above, an attempt can be made to outline and draw some lessons from the negotiations that Mr. Trump has driven very decisively:
1.- First create a difference. The basis of Trump's negotiation is to create a difference - and go to the limit in it - on issues in which there is a certain calm, or it is not in the priority issues of the counterparts that will be involved: governments, business leaders, industrial sectors, media, immigrants, rights defenders and groups of various natures and other constituencies.
2.- The purpose is to make a profit. We assume that the vast majority of those who publicly criticize Trump's sayings and decisions know of "singular negotiation" if they have reached positions of influence that they occupy in politics, in business, in journalism and the media or in human groups, it is because they have had multiple opportunities to create or resolve conflicts, and haggle and negotiate with nationals and foreigners, to resolve one or more differences and achieve a better result than that of that initial moment. They have also been able to distinguish that: culture, training and experience, performance and other aspects have a great influence on the negotiation styles used and their impacts.
3.- Next, try to obtain a result superior to the present one. In other words, if you do not want to achieve a superior result then you should not start these negotiation processes. And what Trump has done is ask for something, which will not be born at the initiative of his opponents. So what would you want to achieve just by saying that you are going to build a wall - partly already built - or that you are going to review treaties, or that you are going to raise customs fees, or that you will prevent the entry of immigrants, or that Are you going to lower taxes or are you going to save on your defense expenses for your own allies, etc.?
Undoubtedly, the single grandiloquent phrases make those who are until then in a "comfort zone" with the "status quo" react and out of control. But the most curious thing is that most of the time those affected or those allegedly affected are confused, “hooked” and only deliver reactive responses that: try to discredit the advertisements or attack them anticipating the serious damage that such measures will produce in different sectors: productive, populations, nations, security, export, health, etc. That is to say, the answers that the ineffable negotiator Trump receives is that his measures are inopportune, or they produce great risks and losses for certain sectors or that they violate previous agreements, etc. They are reactive responses in the same variable, emotional and almost obvious,but at the same time lack of perspective more winning (win / win) and very defeatist, when they respond only in the same matter in a classic tug of war (haggling).
4.- But… can you aspire to a higher goal in which everyone wins? The bombastic and attacking ads mentioned have an implicit desire to win, but that does not mean that what needs to be shared in each negotiation is clearly and firmly defined. What delimits the “To tal to be won by the parties” (size of the cake) the counterpart can, must and has to incorporate, more only if it manages to imagine: what could these new gains be? And this is the proposal that is implicit as an offer for the counterparties, especially when they have not been the ones who have originated the difference.
5.- An experience that can be extracted from these 18 months. If it is mentioned, for example, that changes must be made in the singular borders, and the answers and criticisms refer to the same theme and variable: it is still trapped. If it is the climate treaty, answer with climate; those of money for the Nato with money more or less. This type of response, which we call “singular” because attacks and counterattacks refer to the same issue, is very poor, not very innovative and it is abysmal that international leaders and analysts fall into these situations as if they were amateurs and not professionals of the negotiation, unless Let's not be naive, let them be responses and tactics to buy time, divert attention or wait for the attacker to give up.
- BASES OF INTERSTICIAL KNOWLEDGE USEFUL TO MAKE MORE OF THE CHAOS
1.- The proposals of singular and exponential traditional answers in the negotiation.When you make a proposal on "customs fees" and you answer the same issue: this is common and it is a unique relationship. The rates have: amounts, dates, products or services, flow, control, origin and destination of goods and services, etc. Sometimes some of the new exponential growth technologies, such as AI (artificial intelligence), are able to incorporate into the tariffs issue and in that case the proposal or solution is due to the power of reproduction that these technologies have. But nevertheless it is still a unique response, we continue to deal with the same single issue of "rates with rates." It does not come out of it. We assume that this behavior is the consequence of the training and specialized knowledge that most negotiators have, with or without experience,in different national and global activities, and in particular when you have professions that clearly determine your preferences and actions such as: lawyers, scientists, politicians, engineers, economists, architects, or other traditional professions. As the poet Huidobro said: "Titles of this or that… titles of limitation."
It is recognized that Trump creates differences that annoy, and much, in a world where there are so many difficulties and of a diverse nature between regions, countries, cultures and inhabitants and that when raising issues and receiving unique answers, that is, responding to him well or In a bad way to the same issue raised by this negotiator, it is only being responded with the singularly highly biased knowledge that is available either personally, locally or globally. And that is a way of negotiating (or rather haggling), which will soon be declared inoperative, not only to deal with these types of differences, but will also be a basis for a new development of world knowledge.
2.- Innovation that arises from interstitial knowledge in negotiation to create more knowledge and obtain more value in agreements.If the proposals to raise the rates are answered with rates, it is possible that in the end the parties in conflict will earn more than they obtained at the beginning. But it will be a result that does not scale to much higher values. These values would only be obtained if the opposing parties were open to including additional elements independent of the tariffs, which, although not previously addressed in the original proposal, proposed by Trump-type negotiators, allow us to scrutinize whether it is possible to fill gaps between the tariffs. fees and those separate items. This is what interstitial knowledge applied to negotiation refers to, that is, the new knowledge that arises from filling the gaps that occur when two or more independent elements produce, through their attributes, a new knowledge,not existing until then, which allows solutions far superior to those that are possible with the knowledge that is available until that moment only with unique solutions. Is it possible to apply this paradigm to negotiation?
3.- It is urgent to learn to negotiate with interstitial knowledge. Today it is possible to learn to negotiate with a traditional course, face-to-face or even free e-learning, but it is also possible to improve much more when working with negotiations with the search for interstitial knowledge, because knowledge is expanded by developing innovative approaches that allow results far superior to the usual ones in the negotiation and with growth of gains beyond those that are achieved with a singular exponential approach.
Would it not be convenient for governments, universities, economic groups, industrial sectors, diplomats and organizations of various kinds to use the methods of "interstitial intelligence" when having to negotiate? It is certainly a way to improve capacities to achieve far superior results in negotiation at the local, national and global level. In other words, instead of reviling disruptive, aggressive or provocative proposals, conditions of mutual gains that are far superior and probably unknown until now can be created in said interstitial spaces available between the parties.
4.- Final: the risks behind a singular negotiator like Trump and his against (other) parties. Notwithstanding what has been said in the previous points, there is no doubt that a single negotiator as risky as Trump, who opens different flanks simultaneously, can be faced with a lot of criticism and take actions that seem important setbacks, which will not lessen his behavior.
But what follows in these negotiations and with the analysis of the other scenarios and behaviors of the negotiators (Yi Jinping, Putin, Merkel, Juncker and Modi at the international level that are Trump's counterparts), as well as with the applications and details of the new paradigms of interstitial negotiation, whose bases have been exposed, may be part of a future article or opinion of other authors.
Also present in another note the possible proposals that could be made for the negotiation of a country in other matters, for example: border differences, political agreements, global innovation ventures, exploitation of abandoned resources, new industries, racial or environmental social problems, exploration spatial, etc. that contribute to a country negotiating - plural and interstitially - reduce its risks in the face of growing external and internal threats and, finally, grow enough to achieve its development together with the others.
No negotiation, be it traditional or interstitial, is guaranteed to be successful, but no success can be achieved without negotiating. For this reason, it is worth preparing to face even more complex and “unpredictable” negotiators than the ineffable Mr. Trump, and who are likely to innovate by negotiating interstitially.
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OLIBAR Consultores Int´l since 1972
Future studies, strategy and innovation for development and business
Chair: Mr. Carlos Olavarría Aranguren, Master of Science MIT / US
References :
1.- "The unsurprising great world uproar of Trump: who created him will manage to control it in favor of his country and how to anticipate the next upheaval?" In www.Critica.cl, January 23, 2017
2.- "Negotiation for the XXI Century: the limits of negotiation or negotiation without limits " Diario
Radio Universidad de Chile 01/22/2014
http://radio.uchile.cl/2014/01/22/negociacion-para -the-21st-century-the-limits-of-negotiation-or-negotiation-without-limits /
3.- “Yes… okay! negotiate without compromise ”Roger Fischer, Bruce Patton, William Ury original“ Getting to Yes The Secret of the Successful Negotiation ”.
4.- “The Art of the Deal”: “I like thinking big. I always have. To me it's very simple: If you're going to be thinking anyway, you might as well think big. " Donald J. Trump .
5.- "Conflicts?: Negotiate by innovating, ethically and creating differences", at www.Quintopoder.cl, 03/22/2015
6.- Interstitial Innovation: a new global paradigm beyond serial and exponential innovation. 05/05/2018 http://critica.cl/economia/innovacion-interstitial-nuevo-paradigma-mundial-mas-alla-de-la-innovacion-serial-y-exponencial Reading recommended by creator Crystal Lagoons scientist, innovator and businessman F. Fischmann.
Trump's unsurprising great global uproar: who created him will manage to control him in favor of his country and how to anticipate the next uproar? In www.Critica.cl, January 23, 2017
Negotiation for the XXI Century: the limits of negotiation or negotiation without limits. Diario Radio Universidad de Chile 01/22/2014 http://radio.uchile.cl/2014/01/22/negociacion-para-el-siglo-xxi-los-limites-de-la-negociacion-o-negociacion- unlimited/
“ Yes… okay! negotiate without giving up ” Roger Fischer, Bruce Patton, William Ury original“ Getting to Yes The Secret of the Successful Negotiation ”.
"The Art of the Deal" : "I like thinking big. I always have. To me it's very simple: If you're going to be thinking anyway, you might as well think big. ”- Donald J. Trump.
Conflicts ?: Negotiating by innovating, ethically and creating differences, in www.Quintopoder.cl, March 22, 2015
I nterstitial Innovation: a new world paradigm beyond serial and exponential innovation. 05/05/2018 http://critica.cl/economia/innovacion-interstitial-nuevo-paradigma-mundial-mas-alla-de-la-innovacion-serial-y-exponencial. Article recommended by creator of Crystal Lagoons scientist, innovator and entrepreneur F. Fischmann.
