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What is business prospective

Anonim

The first serious studies on future scenarios began to be developed in the United States in the 1920s.

The successful experience of Japan made foresight an essential tool for planning public policies.

The first multinational company to use one of the prospective methodologies was the Royal Shell oil company in 1968.

At present, most of the large international companies use the prospective for the medium and long-term planning of their operations.

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WHAT IS PROSPECTIVE?

WHO IS THE PROSPECTIVE AIMED AT?

IMPORTANCE OF THE PROSPECTIVE

APPROACH TO THE FUTURE

The "P" theories: Its purpose is to improve future-focused decision making improve future-focused decision making and its fundamental purpose and fundamental purpose is to reduce uncertainty and its associated risks to reduce uncertainty and its associated risks. Now, not all of them do. Now, not all do it in the same way and with the same degree of efficiency in the same way and with the same degree of efficiency.

The prospective is a look to the future aimed at clarifying the present action

THE DOCTRINE OF CHANGES

The environment where companies and organizations live and feed on will be substantially different from the one we have known until recently. The «McKinsey 7S»): The «McKinsey 7S»): SharedShared values, values, skills, skills, strategy, structure, systems, strategy, structure, systems, staff and style.staff and style.

They are all in the same situation and, therefore, the path to choose and its length is different "dynamic factors of the organization"

METHODOLOGY

THE SCENARIO METHOD

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF THE PROSPECTIVE

The prospective part of the concept that the future does not yet exist the prospective part of the concept that the future does not yet exist and "sey" can be conceived as a multiple realization "can be conceived as a multiple realization" ((Jouvenel, 1968) and Jouvenel, 1968) and that "it depends only on the action of man" "depends only on the action of man" ((Godet, Godet, 1987). 1987).

The prospective must be able to identify those scenarios, the prospective must be able to identify those future scenarios that in the period that goes from the present to the horizon of the future that in the period that goes from the present to the horizon of the study, may occur.

Through the use of methodologies, foresight seeks to identify Through the use of methodologies, foresight seeks to identify the most probable and desirable future scenarios towards which the most probable and desirable future scenarios towards which an organization, a region or a country should be heading should enrumbarse an organization, a region or a country.

There are many possible futures

MOST USED METHODS

Foresight “must use the power of hindsight to transport us to better futures

SCIENTIFIC SCHOOLS THAT DOMINATE THE FIELD OF PROSPECTIVE ON A WORLDWIDE LEVEL.

THE STRATEGIC PROSPECTIVE

ANALYSIS OF THE FUTURES

ANALYSIS OF POSSIBLE, PROBABLE AND DESIRABLE FUTURES

The object of foresight is not to predict the future; rather, on the contrary, its foundation is based on the conviction that the future is yet to be done. It is not determined a priori, but it can be said that the future is open.

  • There is no single future The focus of the analysis is global, qualitative more the future than quantitative, structural and systemic than quantitative, structural and systemic. The probable evolution of the key variables is studied: dynamic character. Key: dynamic character. The combinations of hypotheses that are elaborated must be explanatory.

Explore the future to be able to anticipate problems.

A COMPANY MUST APPROPRIATE THESE SETS OF VALUE ALREADY REFERRED; ONLY IN THIS WAY YOU WILL BE ABLE TO PREPARE OTHERS

  • Analyzes force us to consider external aspects as opposed to purely internal ones. Internal ones. They promote a long-term perspective. They affect dynamic aspects of trend changes. They help to incorporate qualitative inputs. It interacts human groups of different backgrounds or responsibilities. It stimulates team spirit and Consensus Helps to identify innovative ideas Enhances the approach of strategic planning

The prospective "is the management of the uncertainty of future scenarios that we may experience."

PROSPECTIVE FOR COMPANIES

The sense of foresight in companies Reflection on a company, because we are going to talk about the FUTURE; and for this there is nothing better than projecting ourselves forward because, as the philosopher said: "we have to live looking to the future, although assuming the present."

Important decisions require long-term, futuristic, and, if possible, anticipatory approaches that take into account the possible evolutions of the key factors of the environment where the company feeds.

Companies need to make important decisions that go beyond the short term

PROSPECTIVE: FOR WHICH COMPANIES?

Those companies that operate under conditions of great uncertainty. Those that do not perceive new business opportunities. Those in which the quality of strategic thinking - as a company - is low or does not exist.

Those whose sector in which they operate has undergone significant changes.

Those in which a stable and enriching balance is sought between personal values ​​and a company culture.

Those whose competitors use scenario planning.

Those that are in a situation of latent crisis. Those that technological change will force to expand their vision beyond the borders of their industrial field.

PROSPECTIVE APPLIED TO COMPANIES

Prospective analyzes cover many areas and themes. Next, we list those applied to the business world that we consider most interesting

Probable trends from a sector or problematic to a. Probable trends of a sector or problem over a specific horizon (between 3 and 20 years). determined horizon (between 3 and 20 years).

Probabilized scenarios on any subject. Probabilized scenarios on any subject at a specific horizon.

Strategic analysis on the evolution of demand

a.Strategic analysis on the evolution of long-term demand for any product or service.

Configuration of the value chain of a company in a horizon of up to 20 years. Horizon of up to 20 years.

FUNDAMENTALS OF THE FORECAST

Foresight, in addition to allowing and promoting the design of the future, contributes very important elements to the planting process and decision-making, since it identifies dangers and opportunities of certain future actions, in addition to allowing alternative policies and actions to be offered, thus increasing the degree of choice.

Generate alternative visions of desired futures.

PROSPECTIVE AND BUSINESS VISION

It is easy to see the speed at which technology is transforming the world.

In such a world –that is, in a world in the midst of a technological revolution– trying to know what is going to happen in the future is not an idle distraction for entrepreneurs or a simple exercise in academic speculation. On the contrary, establishing where the evolution of technology is pointing and recognizing its possible impacts on society is essential to know what and how to produce in a globalized market

PROSPECTIVE AND BUSINESS ASSOCIATIVITY

The most competitive countries are characterized by what we could call the “new business vision”. This vision is characterized by at least two elements. On the one hand, the employer does not take the environment as data but tries to analyze and monitor it and, as far as possible, to change it. The risks of international markets and the speed with which new technological developments are registered are inevitable elements in a globalized world.

The risks and opportunities that this generate must be monitored, and if possible anticipated.

PROSPECTIVE PLANNING

Exploring the future requires a strict methodology, so that the processes are transparent and entirely reproducible. This “meticulousness” is expedited due to circumstances that require a maximum of imagination, creativity and intellectual freedom, which is why prospective analyzes scenarios from three different perspectives.

"Man becomes what he does and thinks"

PROSPECTIVE PLANNING

The prospective analyzes scenarios from three different perspectives:

OPERATION OF PROSPECTIVE STUDIES

PROSPECTIVE STUDIES ACCORDING TO THE NEEDS

BUSINESSWOMEN FROM COMPANIES INSERTED IN THE NEW ECONOMY

Products and services of Products and services Market research specialized masses oriented to future demands.

Competitiveness is by Competing for Prospects on impact, scale, cost and quality, differentiation in future differential products and services

Little expenditure on R&D High expenditure on R&D

Future scenarios on the application of scientific and technological knowledge.

Human Resources High Human Resources Prospects on average qualification qualification needs for future knowledge.

Bibliography

www.Prospectic.es About the author of the work

Edgar Eslava Arnao: Doctor in Administration, Master, PhD in Organizational Psychology, Ontological Coach, Diploma in Marketing, advisor, consultant and business speaker in Direction and Management, strategic management of human capital, Personnel Selection, Work climate studies and evaluation of competencies, team building, quality, leadership and management, strategic planning, performance evaluation by competencies, microteaching, negotiation, personal marketing, quality. He has served as a university professor in undergraduate and postgraduate degrees at the Universities PUCP, U. Pacìíico, UAP, UPAO, Universidad Las Américas, he has held various management positions in national and multinational companies.

Author of the books "Human Resource Management", "Strategic Planning", Outplacement and its effects on self-image depression and Adaptation in a group of displaced workers, "Methodological Guide for Strategic Planning", multiple publications in various media communication from Colombia, Panama, Dominican Republic, Chile, Spain, Argentina and Peru. He has been a consultant in Human Resources for the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank, IDB, national and international lecturer on management and human capital.

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What is business prospective