The logistics sector is an emerging and rapidly growing sector, consequently the vision of the sector as such, and separate from other sectors, is relatively new worldwide and differs for each country: there is still no universally accepted consensus on which variables they are the ones that should be measured or the way to do it.
Introduction
In the most advanced countries this vision depends on the degree of incorporation of technology or so-called ICTs into the activity of the sector, although technology is a determining factor in the analysis of the sector, equally important variables such as the level of training of human resources, factors that act as a brake or drivers in the activity of the sector, social, environmental, economic factors, etc.
In this sense, globalization is currently a determining factor in world economic growth as a consequence of the weakening of borders in terms of impediments, prohibitions, to the movement of capital, goods and services, which means that markets no longer they are only a region delimited by the borders of a country. Along with globalization, other changes of magnitude are taking place that will cause changes in the profiles of supply and demand in the medium term, demographic changes, the world population is aging at an accelerated rate, especially in developed countries, it is expected to in 2020, the percentage of people over 60 years of age will be 32%, as a counterpart it is estimated that the world population in the next 20 years will grow by 2/3 parts,this translates into billions of new consumers for the global market, the participation of women in the labor market continues to grow worldwide in a phenomenon called Womenomics; geostrategic changes such as the Asianization of the world economy that generates tensions, uncertainties and difficulties; political changes such as the redistribution of economic power; Technological changes where the so-called ICTs have a leading role, but no less important are nanotechnology and biotechnology and, lastly, environmental changes, in a scenario with scarce natural resources. It is anticipated that an increase in the demand for oil in the coming years, is also estimated a rapid growth of alternative energy sources, thanks to technological advances,and new stricter environmental laws.
This series of changes that the world is experiencing and that will be accentuated in the coming decades, means that organizations must rethink their way of producing, marketing and distributing their products globally, thus adapting to the new rules in consumer habits. The birth of new segments, prosumer, yeppies, etc., is evident, for which organizations must be extremely flexible and adaptable to new trends.
The aforementioned changes have a strong impact on all sectors of the economy, but it is in the logistics sector where these changes are likely to have the greatest impact, bearing in mind that the management of material flow from its sources depends on this sector, passing by the production processes and even the final consumers, being responsible, at present, also for the waste generated by the consumption of said products, what is currently known as reverse logistics. To achieve this goal, that of reaching end customers,the sector and particularly the organizations carry out a management and management of systems and resources in a chain of suppliers and clients that today is known as the supply Chain and that tries to integrate the entire supply chain for the best control of material flows and information in time, form and at the most suitable cost for the consumer.
The objective of this work, based on the 10 key trends indicated in the annual report of the observatory of foreign markets- 2006: future trends and new realities, to identify the changes that will be generated or expected from these trends in the logistics sector at a general level and specifically how these changes will impact the supply chain.
Development
1- Future trends and new realities
1.1 The 10 trends, annual report of the observatory of foreign markets, 2006:
* Acceleration of globalization with new main actors.
* Profile of the inhabitant of the world in 2030.
* Increasing pressure on natural resources.
* More attention to the behavior and role of large companies.
* Conjugated customization.
* Market polarization.
* New methods of organization and interaction.
* Abundance of everything? Great ideas and talents will be lacking.
* Innovation yes, but with a business sense.
* Ubiquity of information and knowledge as a basic element of competitiveness.
2- Globalization, natural resources and social responsibility.
2.1 Trends
"Acceleration of globalization with new main actors"
The process of globalization is irreversible, however, the appearance of new actors, such as China and India, will introduce different rules of the game and will make this process somewhat more plural and less "western." Economic power is redistributed…
" Increasing pressure on natural resources ”
The acceleration of economic growth in the world, especially in emerging economies, will put added pressure on the use of natural resources… "More attention to the behavior and role of large companies"
As companies become more global and the pressure on natural resources increases, society will be more suspicious of the performance of large companies and the evaluation of their activities will increase…
2.2 Expected changes in the Logistics sector
* Globalization of markets and competition: this will impact supply and demand leading to changes in the scope and scale of the supply chain, making planning and execution more difficult.
* Market opportunities can appear and disappear quickly, there will be an increase in volatility, it will be necessary to remain alert to the competition since the market can be reduced overnight, giving the supply chain little adjustment time, such as As a result, the sector must be agile and sensitive for the recognition and detection of these movements.
* The global distribution of highly competitive production resources should include specialized labor. Organizations will be forced to consider in their design the ability to develop and operate with global resources, which will have an impact on the design of their supply chains.
* Financial markets will demand greater profitability and productivity of capital, increasing competition and exerting tremendous pressure to be more productive in the processes.
* Global and planetary environmental regulations will generate constant pressure in production and distribution regardless of the location of the organization.
* Democratization of the world: this will generate new markets and competition with the principles of the free market, pressuring the sector to be more productive and competitive.
* Companies will focus on new and very lucrative markets, companies will try to stay ahead by introducing new products faster than the competition. A strong alternative too, will be to develop new markets and channels to exploit existing products as widely as possible, this will impact the design of supply chains that must be flexible to the needs of companies in their constant changes.
* Threats of wars and terrorism: instability will impact the formation of global alliances, affecting reliability, performance and will increase the costs of supply chains.
* Need to preserve the environment and limited resources, constant pressure to replace natural resources in production processes.
* Strict recycling provisions and requirements will lead to a significant impact on reverse logistics and production processes.
* The safe management of waste and its regulatory provisions will generate the need to make the product traceable throughout its useful life.
* Generation of non-fossil fuels, the elimination of pressure due to the need for oil and derivatives will lead to greater stability of the system, reducing dependence on natural resources, reducing some of the world's political conflicts.
* Social demands for a better functioning of environmental issues, pressures to supply environmentally friendly products, in their production, use, shipping and final disposal. This will affect the technologies used in production, the selection of raw materials, suppliers, the shipping method in the development of the processes.
* The global ecosystem will be pressured by the growth of the world population, as a consequence organizations will be forced to become more efficient and creative making products and services, focusing on all aspects related to natural resources in the supply chain.
* Increasing demand for the fulfillment of basic human rights (food, health and housing) and a better global quality of life, this will highlight the social responsibility of companies and corporations that will focus on providing these amenities to the world, incorporating these causes in their strategies, impacting the design and supply of products.
* Accelerated growth of ordinary citizens in committing to carry out direct actions will have an impact on the production process, the selection of suppliers, since any problem along the supply chain cannot be disguised.
2.2.1 Impact on the supply chain
Including low-cost regions in the design of supply chains is now a normal activity. Recognizing these regions is a fundamental issue. Five years ago, China was one of the main sources of low-cost products. Today, this country is competing with Vietnam and India for this position. This is the dynamism shown by the markets of the globalized world, which is why the speed in detecting these opportunities will be the essence of organizations that focus globally on the speed of development, design, production and distribution of new products in a short time, through complex supply chains.
Businesses will be subject to permanent changes, a rapid response will be required in adapting to these permanent changes, implementing the design of flexible and agile supply chains, to satisfy demand quickly and efficiently, while at the same time continuing to pay attention to environmental pressures due to the reduction of fuel use in transportation. This will require more effort in coordinating distribution centers with reduced lead times and low transportation costs.
Most of the production or final assembly will be done near the consumption points using techniques such as postponement.
The postponement will also allow a greater involvement of the client in the last stages of the production of the goods.
Ease in disassembling and selecting components will be very important, aspects of reverse logistics will become a fundamental variable in the design of global supply chains.
Organizations will be responsible for the waste generated by their activity and their products, they must focus on what is called 3R recycling, claims and reuse, and this will add costs and induce the use of technology, supply chains will become more complex and expensive.
Finally, distances, national borders, financial differences and information-related issues will not be barriers but will be decisive factors in decision-making, making the management and design of supply chains more complex, having to consider greater number of variables.
2.3 Relevant aspects
2.3.1 Natural Resources
The availability of energy and water as resources for production presents a challenge in the management of the supply chain. Water scarcity is increasing throughout the world due to the demand for consumption and irrigation. The United Nations environmental program reports that a third of the world's population lives in countries where consumption exceeds availability by 10% and more than 2.7 billion people will face severe water shortages by 2025. Sourcing companies should consider these resource constraints when locating their plants and planning their operations, as resource scarcity can dramatically affect the business. For example, both Pepsi and Coca Cola lost their licenses to use local groundwater at bottling plants in Kerala,India after a local drought…
The acceleration of economic growth in the world (especially in emerging economies), will put an added pressure on the use of natural resources, is expected for the next decades:
* 50% increase in oil consumption.
* Increased energy demand.
* Aggravation in climate impact.
* Water shortage in some regions.
In this way, the traditional bases have been modified by globalization causing various reactions in the different economic sectors, such is the case of the workforce that has been losing presence due to the automation of processes, natural resources are being replaced by Synthetic materials and geographic positions, identified as "strategic location", have been overtaken by better media, by development.
Social awareness and concern for sustainable development are playing a prominent role in defining the future lines of logistics.
The most tangible repercussions are the directives, laws and regulations of the governments and administrations, and those codes that companies self-elaborate regarding social responsibility and environmental protection.
Social responsibility and environmental protection will play a leading role in designing global supply chains in the near future.
2.3.2 Threats of War and Terrorism.
The potential short and long term damage in terms of lives and economic activity is incalculable. We know that free markets are the target of terrorists. The United States and other governments have taken steps to secure international transportation systems and global supply chains. However, due to the growth of international trade and the number of commercial transactions, the systems remain vulnerable to a terrorist attack.
The danger of a terrorist attack involves the international transportation system. An attack could take place anywhere in the world and could have an impact beyond its location…
The establishment of physical and information security programs are essential in the current environment of the globalized world, with increasingly dynamic commercial exchange processes and in the face of the proliferation of warfare and terrorism throughout the world. Such security measures may, initially, cause certain delays in flows through supply chains while institutionalizing and generalizing security initiatives that help reduce the risk of losses occurring worldwide due to factors because insecurity. On the other hand, it will be necessary for companies to allocate special resources to collaborate with this problem.
Safeguard the security of the different operational processes that make up the supply chain, in the face of events such as the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States and some subsequent and more recent ones registered in other parts of the world, as well as progress and growth of organized crime (or the escalation of insecurity in the case of countries like Mexico) are sufficient reasons to foster its development, implementation and management that will ensure the speed and constant flows of goods, information and capital within global supply chains and it will reduce the risk of losses in the world due to factors caused by insecurity, estimated at several trillion dollars annually.
Faced with such a scenario, companies will have to allocate higher percentages of their investment to security.
Some estimates established that the costs of these events were approximately two trillion dollars per day due to the interruptions registered in the supply chains and the inability to move goods and merchandise during the days following the unfortunate events.
The aforementioned events revealed at the time and to date that there is a direct link between the security and speed required by supply chains.
Speed is of the essence in today's supply chains, but focusing only on speed without security can lead to slower supply chains.
2.3.3 Reverse Logistics
A mature supply chain must have the ability to carefully map the environmental impacts of individual products throughout the supply chain to actively manage these impacts. Today, supply chains must respond to a host of environmental pressures, including regulations, customer demands, and limited resource availability. These responses imply the development of different operating models…
Efforts for more aggressive legislation are coming out of Europe and East Asia, and include Japan's "End-of-life vehicle recycling initiative" 1996, the United States with the "End-of-life vehicles" directives 2000 and "Waste electrical and electronic equipment ”2002.
To meet the EPR requirements, companies must design, implement, and operate with an understanding of reverse logistics.
Reverse logistics involves facilities, partnerships for product disassembly and recycling, remanufacturing, reuse plans, initiatives to encourage consumer engagement.
Reverse logistics requires considerable technical and financial organization for the industry.
3- Demography, profiles of the inhabitant and the demand of the future
3.1 Trends
“Profile of the inhabitant of the world in 2030”
The 21st century will be the century of cities, as Koffi Annan, Secretary-General of the United Nations has declared. The number of mega cities in Asia, Africa and Latin America will increase and new urban and emerging lifestyles will be formed…
“Conjugated personalization”
Price and quality will continue to be important, but consumers in developed markets will especially value the customization of goods and services…
"Market polarization"
The markets are determined by the segment that the company wants to attract. Demographic trends will cause a greater polarization between the high-income and low-income segments…
3.2 Expected changes in the Logistics sector
* Changes in the mix of the world population, in terms of races and cultural aspects, will affect the profile of the markets, leading to rapid and significant changes in demand and consequently in supply plans.
* More sophisticated clients, many of them from the new developed countries, will demand more personalized products according to their needs. Demand will be more difficult to predict, products will tend to be unique, requiring highly efficient supply chains to support product diversity.
* Changes in the age of the population: the population is expected to be older than the current average, leading to changes in the composition of the market in a specific direction that will influence demand, creating new challenges for manufacturers and service providers.
* Increasing disenchantment with materialism, science and technology. Natural products and simple products will become very attractive and will compete with manufactured products that are synthetic or genetically altered. The supply chain should consider these aspects of natural products in the design, production and distribution of these products.
3.2.1 Impact on the supply chain
The productive units must also become total service providers, building long-term strategic relationships with customers. The supply chain should consider this relationship between suppliers and customers throughout the life of the product offering long-term support; the management of this support will add another variable in the design of the supply chain.
Trust will be a key word when doing business, organizations and the supply chain must incorporate this concept into their processes to ensure that the brand transmits confidence to the consumer.
The added value will be realized through the service and not through the physical product, impacting the design of the supply chain, which must now consider the post-sale support for the life of the product as part of it.
A high degree of added value will be essential, to remain competitive organizations must offer greater added value, this will lead to a constant search for new materials, innovative suppliers, etc.
High degree of customization in the manufacture of products, flexibility of demand will require agile supply chains, which can handle this excessive variability in customer requirements, will lead to extreme customization, one solution will be to make products that can be reconfigured by the customer, this will link the supply chain with the customer in a more direct way throughout the entire life of the product.
3.3 Most relevant aspects
3.3.1 Customization
Today, with the establishment of other internet networking technologies for doing business, personalization is once again an option for the consumer.
Personalization can be the biggest differentiating factor for companies, particularly when they focus on customer and constant innovation, based on ideas of products and services that come directly from consumers.
Personalization is a strategy that integrates the client in the value chain.
4- Technology, new methods of organization, innovation and competitiveness.
4.1 Trends
"New methods of organization and interaction, connectivity and atomization"
The technological revolution has not yet reached its peak. New advances will lead us to a new sphere of products and services…
"innovation yes, but with a business sense"
The ideas innovative are important, but of little value if they are not supported by a good business model…
"Ubiquity of information and knowledge as a basic element of competitiveness"
The ability of a company to understand the key trends that will constitute the future of technology, social and consumer behavior, as well as markets will be decisive for its survival…
4.2 Expected changes in the Logistics sector
* Rapid expansion of access to technology: This increased access to technology will offer a relatively short competitive advantage in time, more emphasis will be placed on supply chain capabilities.
* Rapid increase in communications capacity, will impact the speed of information flow and product traceability, promoting the application of planning and decision tools in real time to support the supply chain.
* Acceleration of technological changes: organizations must be flexible in adapting to incorporate new technologies within their production processes and supply chains regularly.
* Constant pressure from emerging technologies: organizations will try to limit competitive dependence on these new technologies by outsourcing activities or tasks to be completed by specialists, the net impact will be an increase in outsourcing influencing the design of the supply chain.
* The accelerated rate of product innovation, new technologies, methods, large markets, increasingly sophisticated buyers and sellers, will impact the supply chain that will require new suppliers, new locations and markets, new delivery methodologies and new information needs.
4.2.1 Impact on the supply chain
Visibility of the entire supply chain in real time is one of the main objectives for the coming years, to achieve this objective, technology and automation play a fundamental role.
Connectivity will allow organizations to enter customer requirements, no matter where they are, in real time, without errors and in a virtual way.
Currently, despite the availability of different types of technologies, the speed of communications through supply chains is not as fast as it could be; in the future, most communications will be between machines allowing the technology to be exploited to full by eliminating the intervention of man in the nodes of the supply chain.
All the functions of the company will be integrated into a single virtual entity, interacting with customers to obtain rapid feedback, thus offering the creation of better products and services in the future.
The information will finally triumph over the inventory, in the future it will be the products that communicate in real time, and all the links in the supply chain will be able to know the location of these at any point in the chain and in real time.
Most products will have a short life cycle, as a consequence of technological advances and competition, generating greater pressure on the effectiveness of the supply chain, the obsolescence of products will become a critical factor for the success of the chain supply.
Virtual production systems will allow simulations, eliminating the costs of error testing in the development of products and processes.
The products will be able to detect their malfunction autonomously, impacting the design of the supply chain that must take into account these new attributes of the "interactive" products, to respond quickly or immediately to the malfunction detected by the product in any moment.
Nanotechnology and biotechnology will develop more effective manufacturing processes with environmentally sound methods.
The use of new materials based on molecular engineering, can be manufactured when needed at low cost and quickly.
Time will become the most important cost factor, as a consequence of the short life cycle of products that quickly become obsolete, speed will be a relevant factor in the design of supply chains of the future.
4.3 Most relevant aspects
4.3.1 Radio frequency identification
Everyone from journalists, analysts, tech companies and giants like Walt-Mart made public the investments based on the promise of RFID to revolutionize the supply chain on a scale never seen since the Internet revolution in 1990…
The use of RFID combined with EPC promises to provide data about products never before available. Many of the items produced will eventually have their own identification number.
All parts of the supply chain, including producers, distributors and retailers, will be able to have real-time access to information about any product.
Generally speaking, RFID technology can be used to identify, track, select or detect a wide variety of objects.
Communication takes place between a reader and a silicone chip connected to an antenna often called a tag.
The adoption of this technology through the supply chain will provide significant benefits to reduce operational costs.
RFID applications are still in the development stages, but pilot tests have shown benefits on the following topics:
* Theft or loss of products, RFID technology with its identification capacity can locate where losses are occurring.
* Counterfeiting of products, by integrating RFID tags within products, has the potential to authenticate the product, combating sales and counterfeiting on the black market.
* Supply chain efficiency, RFID will allow traceability throughout the life of the product, will reduce the number of discrepancies between what is sent by a supplier and what the customer actually receives.
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