The time for the 30N pistol is approaching. Yes, it is only a few days before the start of the Conference of the Parties to the 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21 / CMP11), also called "Paris 2015", to be held between November 30 and December 11. Long and circumspect name that just reading it scares and provokes running away because of the ineffable, anti-advertising and boring it seems. Is this because 99% of people don't even know what a COP is? Is this why previous editions have passed under the table for almost everyone? Or is it that not enough coverage has been given to the previous 20 conferences? The truth is that this event should create more expectation than a soccer world cup, but unfortunately it is the opposite.
To one what causes you to go up on a stage and declaim: Oh COP, COP… so important that you are and how few people know you! Oh COP, what immense detachment! Oh mother Earth, how ungrateful are your children!
"Give Earth a chance", "Give Earth a chance", is the slogan we have coined to accompany from our pages the great event to be held in the French capital, in which so many hopes are being pinned. We are optimistic about the expected results, but at the same time we look at the COP21 with caution, as we are aware of the frustrations accumulated in the previous conferences, in which what we already called in 2009, Tower of Babel, reissued with positions e particular and irreconcilable interests, where nobody understands the other, because each one speaks their own language, which is nothing other than the language of their opportunities and interests. We also know that these dissonances have worked against the understanding and the obtaining of binding agreements,added to the non-observance or delay of the commitments reached. If it were not possible to stop global warming, the great victim would be the Earth, but especially the life that develops on it. Whatever happens the planet will survive, and hopefully among the erased from its maps there will be us, the species homo sapiens sapiens, presumably the wise men we think.
Despite these negative handicaps, we remain optimistic. We must all bet on the success of COP21 and do our bit, if only by finding out what this is all about, in addition to giving up a little space of our daily chores to know what happens in Paris. Our hopes this year have an acceptable basis of support, but before putting them in black and white, we are going to review, in the most condensed way possible, what has happened in the previous COPs.
The Climate Change Conferences, a long history of postponements
The Framework Convention on Climate Change (CMCC) was established in May 1992, at the so-called "Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro"; It entered into force in March 1994 with the premise of reinforcing global public awareness of problems related to climate change. Among its main objectives, the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere stands out, to prevent risks in the climate system. The Conference of the Parties (COP) is established as the supreme body of the Convention and the association of all the countries that are part of it. Environmental experts, ministers or heads of state and non-governmental organizations have participated in the annual meetings. The first conference, COP1, was held in Germany in 1995,which produced the Berlin Mandate, a kind of catalog of rather indefinite commitments, which allowed countries to choose initiatives tailored to their particular needs. At COP 2 Geneva 1996, it was agreed on the non-uniformity of solutions by countries.
The Kyoto Protocol is born with the date of death incorporated into your birth certificate
COP 3 meets in the Japanese city of Kyoto, in 1997, in which, after intense negotiations, the famous Kyoto Protocol comes to light which, until now, together with the Montreal Protocol (1987, protection of the ozone layer), was emerging as one of the most important and hopeful documents of humanity to regulate anthropogenic activities, capable of recovering the global environment. In Kyoto, binding targets for GHG emissions are set for 37 industrialized countries, but two of the largest emitters, the United States and China, do not ratify the document. It is agreed that the Kyoto Protocol would enter into force eleven years later, in 2008, and its expiration date was factory pre-marked for 2012,establishing that developed countries reduce their GHG emissions in these five years by 5% compared to the 1990 level.
Nine POPs between 1998 and 2006, with little progress to review
Nine Conferences of the Parties are held between these dates: 1998, COP 4, Buenos Aires. 1999, COP 5, Bonn. 2000. COP 6, The Hague and (2nd part) 2001, Bonn, 2001. COP 7, Marrakech, 2002. COP 8, New Delhi, 2003. COP 9, Milan, 2004. COP 10, Buenos Aires, 2005. COP 11, Montreal, 2006. COP 12, Nairobi. They were nine almost lost years, based mainly on the finalization of the details of the Kyoto Protocol, with a view to 2008.
The Bali Action Plan
During 2007, at COP 13, Bali, Indonesia, an important step was taken on the road towards replacing the Kyoto Protocol with another treaty, without it having entered into force. Furthermore, it is concluded that the signs of global warming are unquestionable and finally the "Bali Action Plan" is adopted, which sets the framework for the negotiations that would lead to COP 15, Copenhagen, two years later. In 2008, COP 14, Poznan, Poland, the program for the transfer of environmentally sound technologies for developing countries was welcomed and the details for the important appointment of the following year were refined.
Copenhagen, great hope ends in great disappointment
Finally we arrived at 2009, COP 15, Copenhagen, a meeting in which immense hope had been established since 2007. It was thought that the Danish capital would be given the privilege of giving the good news to the world, by announcing a new protocol for the reduction of GHG emissions: "the conclusion of a legally binding climate agreement, valid for everyone, to be applied from 2012", as stated in its central objective prior to the appointment. This, in quantifiable terms, meant the reduction of CO2 emissions to less than 50% by 2050 compared to 1990. But the euphoria was short-lived. With three weeks to go before the start of COP15, a meeting was held in Thailand, in which China and the United States decided that the Copenhagen agreements would not be binding,so that the fate of the Summit was cast before beginning. It was very bad news and the few hopes of saving her were buried in the last night, when the presidents of China, the United States, India, Brazil and South Africa, without the presence of the European representatives, nor that of the other countries, made an untimely meeting. Behind closed doors and in just three pages they drafted a non-binding agreement that was not even put to the vote. Finally, he was only exposed to the "knowledge" of the attendees, together with the promise that, in early 2010, he would work on a political platform, the basis for building binding legal commitments at COP 16. The summit, as was To be expected, it was rated failure and disaster by many governments and environmental organizations. Herman Van Rumpuy,President of the European Council, in a confidential cable of American diplomacy, leaked by WikiLeaks, dated January 4, 2010, had very harsh expressions: "Copenhagen was an incredible disaster (…) the multilateral summits will not work," and described the Nightmare on Elm Street II meeting and blurted out the lapidary phrase, "Who wants to see that horror movie again?"
In 2010, at COP 16, Cancun, Mexico, among the main agreements reached, it is worth highlighting the creation of a Green Climate Fund, through which an amount of one hundred billion dollars a year is established, starting in 2020, and thirty billion dollars for the period 2010-2012, in order to help low-income countries bear the costs of fighting climate change. The outcome document sets out to adopt "as soon as possible" a decision on commitments for a second phase of the Kyoto Protocol ensuring "that there is no gap between the first and second commitment period".
2011, COP17 Durban, South Africa
The fate of the planet was no better than the previous year, although progress was made by establishing a date for the start of the second period of the Kyoto agreements for 2013, presumably avoiding a vacuum in terms of climate change. The summit concluded with a roadmap for a global treaty, as required by the European Union, which obliges major polluters who have not signed the Kyoto Protocol, such as China, the United States and India, to commit themselves. The bad news was that Canada announced its intention not to renew Kyoto, backed by Japan and Russia.
The last three COPs, prior to COP21
In 2012, at COP18, Doha, Qatar, it was presumed that there would be no major shocks as their objectives did not seem complicated, although the road would eventually be strewn with obstacles. The 194 countries gathered reached a minimum agreement, the "Doha Climate Gate", which extends the Kyoto Protocol until 2020, but the negotiations on the demand for greater donations by developing countries are deferred for the following year. Most of the delegations expressed their discomfort that the final agreement did not meet the scientific recommendations, which called for vigorous action to counter global warming. Carbon dioxide emissions by that date were double 1990 rates.
In 2013, at COP19, Warsaw, Poland, the initial objective was to reach an agreement so that by 2015 emissions of polluting gases can be reduced. However, this agreement was opposed by several countries, including the host, owner of a coal-based industry. It should be noted that on this occasion the UN presented a document where it is assured with almost 100% certainty that the human being is the main cause of global warming since the 1950s. Finally, a roadmap towards a global pact is finalized. and binding in 2015, but many gaps remain open to be resolved at the Lima summit the following year. Outstanding fact was the massive abandonment, with one day to go before the summit closes, by NGOs and unions, an unprecedented fact up to that moment in these conferences.
In 2014, at COP20, Lima, Peru, the most significant was that the United States and China announced a joint commitment to reduce (GHG) emissions for the first time in history, essential for global warming not to exceed two degrees, limit established by scientists. The UN considers that the objective is to reduce emissions by between 40% and 70% by 2050 and to zero by the end of the century. The agreement, finally ratified, is an agreement that brings positions closer to Paris 2015.
What will happen at COP21 What will happen in Paris 2015?
No one can know the answers. We intuit that this time there is a good chance of seeing white smoke in Paris and that is why we bet. We see an ideal stellar conjunction, which should be capable of making significant commitments in this area. Many factors have come together to give this conjunction. To begin with, there is now a greater awareness in the world about the serious problems that may arise from the progressive increase in temperature on the planet. Human responsibility for global warming is widely recognized. Very significant is the change in position of China and the United States, countries that for the first time have expressed their commitment to participate in a binding climate agreement.It is also notable a greater determination and will on the part of those who have the power to influence reaching agreements to stop warming. This has been expressed by Pope Francis, President Obama and President Hollande, among many other personalities in the world.
A special recognition for France
We have been following and writing about COPs for many years and we are able to affirm that COP21 is the best organized we have seen so far. The host country has made extensive preparatory information for COP21 available to the public, through abundant audiovisual material, up-to-date information, maps, virtual tours, infographics, posters and other support materials, in addition to the will of President François Hollande to bring to a good port the long-awaited document. Finally, it is worth highlighting the incorporation of part of the French government's ministerial train and high-level personnel in the preparation and development of the crucial event.
For all these reasons, it would be fair for the French capital, the city of light, where the Liberté, égalité, fraternité, the Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen and the foundations of modern democracy, had the privilege of giving birth to the « Paris Protocol »and announce the good news to the world about a binding climate agreement.
We must all bet on this.
To end
The aforementioned stellar conjunction would be more complete if each of us helped to spread the subject through social networks. With the available intelligent means we can all be reporters. The mere fact of spreading the existence of COP21 and saying that it is a conference to curb climate change, informing the place and the date would be a great step. I wish it could go viral on the networks like so many other things.
