Much has been written about globalization and especially about creating a business world without borders. However, reality has shown that business does not only work due to an economic or market factor, but that an interaction between States and companies is generated that is important to consider. We have examples of mismanagement of external factors business itself, which have failed major investment projects in foreign countries.
For example, the case of Lucchetti in Peru, since the second half of 1996, the company began to take steps to build a pasta manufacturing plant in the Chorrillos neighborhood, in Lima, in front of a protected wilderness area, between others, by the international agreement on migratory birds «Ramsar». Once the first "visible" works of the plant facilities had begun, with the corresponding municipal and legal permits, alarmed neighbors began their claims for the risk posed by a large industry in the vicinity of the swamps. Later the municipality of Lima, citizen organizations of law and environmental protection denounced to prevent the construction of the Lucchetti pasta plant.
What could have failed? Undoubtedly, it was the lack of correct information, in relation to aspects outside the business itself, but that ended with it. That is to say, what failed here was not having a strategic political appreciation, which would indicate the risks of the investment, that would let them know who were the actors that could intervene to prevent it, for one reason or another, what was the position that both governments were going to adopt in the face of a possible conflict, what was the position of Peruvian public opinion, how much historical aspects of the relationship between Chile and Peru could influence, how nationalists could influence, whose objective is always to oppose anything or come from Chile, etc. Definitely,have an appreciation of the structural problems that could influence as well as the nationalist and protectionist reactions that could be generated.
We have so that nowadays, any business that wants to start abroad, needs a more complex and in-depth analysis in order to ensure the investment of factors other than the business itself, where political, geographic, historical, human and economic among others.
With the course of decades, and in particular since 1991 with the disappearance of the Soviet Union, the most important geopolitical event in the history of the second half of the 20th century, followed by the establishment of the European Union from 1992, the Geopolitics has only reaffirmed its importance in all the media in which strategic assessments and analyzes, foreign policy designs and decision-making are made, whether they be of a corporate economic, national state political, national military or multinational nature.2 Society Global of our time is characterized among other things by the size of the organizations, the level of international public awareness, the diversity of economic, social and political actors.
This means that a geostrategic study is important when you want to invest abroad. All the while, that the factors of analysis that they consider may bring the investor closer to a certain certainty in a world that due to its characteristics is uncertain. There are multiple factors that can influence a business or vice versa, there are numerous factors derived from the business that can influence a State. There is a scenario in which countries, societies and companies, which are closely linked, must operate, globalization brings closer, massifies but also accentuates the differences in policies adopted by different States, which may have direct influence on a certain business.
That is why, when investing abroad, the investor must ensure that he knows well, not only the economic and market situation, but also the geostrategic and geopolitical situation in which relations are developed between the States indirectly involved in the business and the political society of the country where the investment is made. It is important to know the customs, the way of working, which are the conflicts that can be generated, the interests at stake, the expectations of the population, in short, multiple geostrategic variables.
As George Soros says, the form of globalization that prevails today is unbalanced. Markets, especially financial ones, have become global, but the same has not happened with the institutions that are necessary for a society to flourish, or even for it to survive. Political arrangements are based on the sovereignty of States; they are not enough to take care of the collective interests of humanity, such as peace, security, the environment, social justice, and even the stability of financial markets. This also means that in a globalized world, only in some aspects, it is necessary that business be done based on a much more comprehensive knowledge than merely economic or financial, since there are important cultural aspects that must be considered,otherwise there is a risk that political matters outside the company and directly to the business influence it for better or for worse.
In this order of things, for example, in businesses in neighboring countries, it is necessary to take into account the geopolitical aspects that in one way or another can contaminate a certain business.
We must start from a premise to understand the phenomenon, our understanding of reality is intrinsically imperfect, and all human constructs suffer from some imperfection. Therefore, we must assume that a business without knowing the reality of the country where it is going to run will inevitably have a risk that is difficult to calculate only with a market or financial analysis.
One of the aspects that jointly study the theory of the State, Geopolitics and geostrategy, is the relative power of the State, which at present is settled or transcends from the local and national level to the regional or global framework, which has an influence, in some cases decisive, in the businesses that are undertaken, both due to the dizzying technical-scientific progress of communications, and because, the conflicts of yesteryear geographically limited, today tend to influence the commercial relations of a globalized world.
An example of this is all the dynamics that occurred with the supply of gas from Bolivia to Argentina and from Argentina to Chile. Undoubtedly, this triple commercial relationship had and has a strategic political impact not only in the three countries directly involved but in others such as Peru, Venezuela and Brazil, which have something to say on this energy issue in the region.
This business, which is in the hands of private transnational companies, has been transferred to the States involved, which had great political repercussions. For example, the Bolivian population's rejection of the possibility that Chile would somehow benefit from the export of natural gas was one of the main causes of a popular rebellion that overthrew businessman Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada from the presidency.
For its part, let us not forget that the former president of Bolivia Mesa authorized the sale of four million cubic meters per day of natural gas to Argentina, for a period of six months, extendable, and on the condition that "not a single molecule »Of the hydrocarbon was resold to Chile. For Chile, this is a geostrategic problem and therefore also one of security. Chile based its industrial growth on gas, without having such a resource. Fortunately, it is at a point where its economy, for the moment, can sustain the import of the resource. But without a doubt, this is a strategic problem with no solution at the moment, which, if not faced, will have serious consequences for the country's economy and security.
Another example case is the dispute between Russia and Ukraine over the price of gas that sparked a debate on the dependence of Germany and Europe on Russian gas, with a share of around 35%. Russia is the largest gas supplier to Germany. Companies in the sector say that Germany's supply is assured. However, a debate has begun in the country regarding the future of energy supply. Ukraine, as a transit country, plays a central role in supplying gas in Europe. Five gas pipelines pass through the former Soviet republic, of which two are for the supply of Ukraine itself.
This is another case, in which private companies are combined with the States involved, this business also having a geostrategic influence. Ukraine consumes for years about 80,000 million cubic meters of gas. The fourth part, about 20,000 million, comes from its own sources. Russia contributed 24 billion last year. Most of it, some 36 billion, comes from Turkmenistan, but that gas also passes through Russia.
For Europe, the question of gas supply is a strategic one: how dependent can the European Union be on Russian gas? European gas imports will continue to increase, because own reserves, for example, in the North Sea off the British coast, are running out.
"What we need is not increased supplies from Russia, but alternative sources," says a senior executive at a German energy company that is not involved in building the gas pipeline across the Baltic. But realistic options do not currently exist. Via gas pipeline only Norwegian gas can compete.
Thus, we see how there is an interaction between companies and states, what was previously only a matter of state. Today with globalization companies assume it. A company to assert its economic interests, must be able to predict the reactions of the competition, to anticipate the probability of the results of a given situation. Knowledge and knowledge appear then as the foundations of power, what is so for States today is also for companies and their businesses.
For example, European companies are developing visions. The Austrian OMV consortium plans the construction of the «Nabuco» gas pipeline, from Iran, through Turkey, to Western Europe. Also gas liquefaction, which, due to the expensive production process, was not competitive until now, this can become an alternative as long as prices continue to rise.
The German Eon consortium plans to build a first terminal for liquid gas in Wilhelmshaven, which would be produced in Qatar. The project costs are estimated at around € 5 billion. But this is projections for the future. "Europe depends on Russia today and will continue to depend on it for a long time," says expert Berthold Hannes of AT Kearney, a consultancy firm. As we see, there is uncertainty in trade relations in a globalized and interdependent world, some evidence that some trade relations at the company level have strategic repercussions at the state level. Both public and private sectors have to become aware of facing problems and propose solutions that are often unprecedented, neither economic nor geopolitical.
There is a geopolitical transition between companies and States, in which the decisions and actions taken have repercussions on people and therefore on societies, which is why they must be in a position to participate in debates and interaction that is derived from the geostrategic situation that a certain business implies.
According to Philippe Delmas, binary geopolitics ended. The end of security ties and the diversity of economic integrations prevent any classification that is reduced to two elements. There are other actors in the international world that are born in this world power game, such as transnational companies and therefore the businesses they carry out in different parts of the planet.
I consider that reducing this only to strategic energy-related items, such as gas and oil, is an oversimplification of this reality. This is because all the important businesses can have geostrategic and geopolitical repercussions. For example, a company that is installed in a country that influences the development of an important sector of that State, such as the mining sector, in the case of Chile or in communications; or another that influences the indexes as a source of work, such as agriculture, large megamarkets or retail stores, without question, that in these cases, their good or bad actions will have social, security and ultimately political repercussions.
International markets allow the development of economies, since they can produce different goods and place them in these markets to be acquired by those countries where they cannot be produced efficiently as the country that offers the good, and this in turn You can benefit from the other goods or services in which the other countries have a better competitive advantage.
Although this type of economic model is highly criticized for the lack of transparency of the multilateral entities in charge, there are great benefits in all areas. This is why globalization is substantial, when a country exports and makes its goods available in international markets, it can obtain benefits at the macroeconomic level, as well as the companies that are in it, can make profits with efficient microeconomic policies, they can generate employment, and therefore the government's macroeconomic policies generate better redistribution of wealth among the population. But this virtuous circle can distort the strategic political spheres that are difficult to forecast without an appreciation that considers all the factors and interests at stake.It is for this reason that circumstances require the maintenance of a sphere of trust to support cooperation, and this must be inexorably of a political and strategic nature of which companies must be duly informed.
Thus we see that business is intimately linked to geostrategy and geopolitics, which is why it is necessary for economic groups, transnational corporations and national companies, regardless of their size, to have the need for useful information that allows them to adopt the best resolutions in view of the strategic political situation in the country and region where you want to invest or install. In this way, they reduce risk factors and ensure their investment in a world where uncertainty and multiple interests reign that the market alone cannot assure.
