Strategic planning and the social and economic impacts of atuais demographic trends
Abstract
A correct interpretation of demographic trends is fundamental for the quality of strategic planning. The objective of this work is to present our vision to respect two social and economic impacts of these trends, especially in regions that may influence Latin American countries.
The text addresses the trends in a global way and discusses the explosive population growth expected for the less developed countries and their consequences. farão necessários.
Or work concentrates on opposing situations, discussing the problems that must be faced by countries that face declines in their populations, in addition to the growth of the same. In these cases, it guarantees the segments of the economy that will be harmed and those that will probably benefit, as well as the measures that will probably be taken by governments involved as the objective of minimizing the expected problems.
A correct interpretation of demographic trends and fundamental for the quality of strategic planning in all snows. The objective of this work is to present our concerns about two social and economic impacts of these trends, especially those that can most strongly influence the Latin American countries; Obviously there are impacts on other areas, especially on the environment, which, however, will not be the object of further explanation in this text. Various UN bodies (Organização das Nações Unidas) have produced data in this regard, these being the main sources that we use and we list the bibliographic references; When given forem from other sources, these will be expressly mentioned.
In 1950, or the world has 2.5 bilhões de inhabitants (GASPARI, 2002). The UN predicts that the world population, currently around 6.1 billion, will be around 8.9 billion in 2050 and about 10.5 billion in 2100. This growth will be concentrated in other countries: India, Pakistan, China, Nigeria, Congo, Bangladesh, Eritreia and Indonesia, with India surpassing China in number of inhabitants in 2025 and reaching 1.5 billion inhabitants in 2050, becoming a country or more povoado. It should be noted that the forecasts of the UN for this area have been confirmed: in 1958, a previous organization that was not in the year 2000, when we reached 6 bilhões, the population would be 6.3 bilhões - a very small mistake for strategic planning purposes.
This information allows us to glimpse some problems related to unbalanced growth: the goal of world population lives in these countries, which occupy 13% of the land surface. The 48 countries considered by the UN as "less developed", their population tripled at 2050, like some of them, such as Congo, Burkina Faso, Angola, Uganda, Somália, Nigéria and Libéria, growing more than 300% - a higher rate of growth. expected for o Iêmen (450%). Latin America must jump two atuais 519 for 806 milhões in 2050 (or Brazil, from 170 for 244 milhões, against 52 milhões in 1950 - MOREIRA, 2000).
This growth, second or "World Population Prospects - The 2002 Revision", edited by the UN Population Division in February 2003, will not be higher in function of the increase in mortality taxes based on Aids; This document foresees that the 2010 epidemic will maintain the current dynamics observed, proving that it was reversed as of this year.
These less developed countries, especially Africa, have a religious bombshell: the standard of living will be either lower, or illiteracy or higher, with less structure than less, you are less governed; The ethnic conflicts will remain sacrificing the poorest. Lack of water and food, education and environmental degradation generate more and more problems. It can be used for these countries on another angle, or you give opportunities to generate huge investments that are necessary.
More to opposing situations: at 2050, some countries in Europe will suffer a marked decline in their population (unless there are strong migratory movements altering this trend): Bulgaria must lose 43% of its population, Ukraine 40%, Russia 28%, Italy e Hungary 25%, Spain, Suíça e Áustria 20%, etc. - The tenth in all of Europe must be around 10%, just like some countries like France and Norway showing small growth. Among other major economies, Japan and Germany must lose about 14% a year, while the United States will grow about 40%.
But the unbalanced above mentioned are not the only demographic problems that we face. Melhores medical-sanitary and food care will raise the non-birth life expectancy for about 70 years in the poorest countries and for 83 the richest countries (at most it will not be Japan, with 88 years). In Latin America and Brazil, respectively, we will jump from 70 to 78 and from 67 to 77; In 1950, life expectancy in Brazil was 46 years (GASPARI, 2002). In addition to Brazil, a population of 65 years of age or more, which was composed of 7.7 thousand people in 1995, comprising less than 5% of the total population, will reach more than 38 thousand people by 2050, improving nothing less than 18.4% of the population (MOREIRA, 2000). This phenomenon is still happening: two people who will reach 65 years,in all the history of humanity, you are alive hoje!
There are still taxa from birth to snow that will not allow population reposition in most two countries in Europe and Japan to become more complex. It is estimated that for the maintenance of the population, a birth tax of 2.1 files per woman is necessary; In recent years, taxa have been recorded ranging from 1.2 in Italy in Spain to 1.9 in Ireland, and even 1.4 in Japan;. These numbers, in a less drastic way, tend to be reproduced in other Western countries: 2 in the United States, 2.7 in Latin America, and 2.3 in Brazil.
For countries with a declining population, two paths are glimpsed: increase in birth taxes, currently difficult to be obtained for reasons such as seeking economic independence for women, need for high investments in structures to support women and children., etc. The second path is the incentive to migrate, which undermines political questões, preconceitos, qualificação dos possíveis immigrants, etc. Furthermore, the mass of immigrants required for the simple maintenance of two national populations of countries, about 700 thousand people at 2050 just for the components of the European Union, would transform the natives into minorities within their own countries,making migrações even more difficult to be concretized - as an example it can be said that it looks at about 10% of the German population made up of foreigners, or that it helps to explain xenophobic attitudes. In any case, as the response is very slow, we can confirm that the countries affected by this type of problem need to start planning (and moving) quickly before the situation worsens.
The increase in life expectancy will also cause a significant increase in the population like everything else. Currently, the country with the highest average discharge in the country or Japan (41 years), followed by Italy (40). In 2050, the highest average will be Spain, aged 55, followed by Italy (54) and Japan (53).
Or envelhecimento da população traz à dances another serious problem, or das chambers. Quase all the leaf plans are based on the premise that the contribution of the current work force will sustain two persons. No Brazil, we are living a serious problem in the area, a problem that also manifests itself in many other countries, as we will see to follow, considering those who have been from housing to people with 60 or more years of leaving and who have been from work between 15 and 59 years, according to the standards of the UN.
It is inevitable that for housing it needs to be increased and the benefits reduced, with all the implications related to this elevation: unemployment, informal work, continuing education, guarantee of entrepreneurship, etc. In Europe, for every 100 people who started working, there were 35 people who started working; In 2050, this number will be doubled, I must go to 75, as a peak in the «most velho» country, to Spain, where a ratio of quase 100 to 100 is expected. No Japan, the ratio will go from 37 to 94 and we In the United States, from 26 to 49. In Latin America, we will go from 13 to 39 and not Brazil, from 12 to 42. Considering that in Germany in 1980 each lodged has 20 workers to support it, it can be seen as a vem deteriorating rapidly.
Either informal or part-time work tends to aggravate or problem, because these workers contribute less than or occupant of a conventional work station. Moving our capitalization systems, increasing contributions, two administration processes and other similar measures can reduce the problem, but not solve it. In companies that are growing, it should be to reduce two benefits to a basic level, allowing individual years to provide accumulation of values as a way of guaranteeing accommodation at the basic level, opening space for businesses in this area. Analogous reasoning can be applied to the health area.
In terms of the labor market, there are challenges to be faced: workers more velhos tend to become less productive, as a general rule. This is due to receiving less progress (there have been two entrepreneurs in investing their professional skills) and because accumulated experience is less relevant to a situation in which technology is rapidly changing. Factors of a physical and psychological nature other than growth can also contribute to this stay.
The development of innovation capacity will be crucial. Usually young professionals have a determining role in the creation and diffusion of new knowledge, thanks to their predisposition for the oil of cliffs, higher mobility (oil of transfers), education and training updated, etc. In the absence of professional qualifications it will be a serious problem. REYNOLDS (2000) demonstrates how the number of "start-ups" (companies created by entrepreneurs) has a correlation with economic growth, and that these entrepreneurs are concentrated in the age range of 25 to 44 years. KELLAWAY (2002), referring to the United States, says that there are 45 thousand people between 35 and 44 years old, and only 37 thousand people between 25 and 34 years old, or that is the potential for innovation, at least not in reference to quantitative aspects, tended to fall.
Outra important alteration will be no demand profile Different age groups with different needs, costs, etc; In this way, some industries will benefit and others will be harmed. A remainder of population will bring negative effects to practically all sectors.
In general, benefits and services that can be marketed in the international market are less affected by alterations or domestic demographic profile, we can compensate for any losses with exports; Since they do not have this possibility, such as land transport, usually they are hit more intensely. The affected areas can also diminish or soften impact through design alterations, distribution channels, marketing, etc., adapting the years to the tastes and the needs of a larger population. There are also those sectors that obviously suffer from large losses, such as the area of civil construction, in the face of reducing the need for new houses, due to the need to adapt existing buildings, it will reduce a little or impact of losses.
Among the areas that will certainly benefit is health. Remedies, hospitals, long-standing support services, biotechnology, etc., we must expect great growth. The increase in the population should benefit the lazer industry, but should be necessary alterations in the profile of services provided by that area, the same food of the future must be more active than it gives you current, mainly in function of the change of values and melhoria das health conditions of the idosa population.
Outras industries are relatively untouched by alterations due to terem between their users, people of all ages, such as financial services, for example. Some financial services should be benefited by growing populations, especially those related to or management of investments destined to complement the paid accommodation of the government. People living in or out of lodging demand information and management of resources appropriate to their projects and personal and family characteristics; New products may be necessary. In Brazil, we have not yet observed a considerable quantity of assets operating in stock exchanges via the Internet, using quite satisfactory services provided by stock brokerages; many of the investors giving this activity a certain playful nature,That I did not have a little time.
Public finances will also be affected. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - OECD (2001), between 40 and 60% of public expenditures in industrialized countries are influenced by factors of a demographic nature, especially the housing of public officials, health, public schools, etc. Despite the limited availability of data, it can be affirmed that people respond to the greater part of the weight, having therefore a tendency to grow over the years or population growth. Simulations carried out by the OECD, considering industrialized nations, show that this growth, is maintained as atuais regras, can lead to large orçamental imbalances, with the typical consequences of the situation, such as increase of taxes of juros, of imposts, etc., generating great problems to those economies.
We certify that it is clear that there are reasons for concern about how many years the social and economic impacts of the demographic trends are. The generation of a series of disasters of diverse nature is seen in the immediate aftermath, especially in the social and economic areas, which are considered in this work. These disasters can be minimized if certain actions, which are always unpopular, forem taken immediately, as far as the population structure still allows these measures. As companies have more time to plan, you can alter or rumor more easily about your business; The governments need to adopt very clear strategies, aiming mainly to give a more favorable format to the population development.
Among these strategies, as discussed above, it is possible to adopt policies that value families and children more, especially industrial economies, trying to make it simpler to allow women to reconcile careers and filhos.
Against immigrants there will always be objections. A more frequent it is to have them concorrem as a local worker. The American, Australian and Canadian phenomena debunk this myth. It will not be easy for Europeans to understand that the immigrant may not enter just to take a business and use a hospital. He can generate wealth, pay taxes, consume. Perhaps this is a change of attitude to be achieved urgently.
Problems generated by immigration could be minimized by programs of integration of two immigrants to societies that receive clarification to native populations about the consequences of population growth and reduction. With the participation of two politicians, it is essential to be involved in the process. Perhaps the verses "Dêem-me seus esgotados, seus poor", authored by the American poet Emma Lazarus (1849-1887), engraved at the base of the Statua da Liberdade as a hino of mercy to immigrants, have never been so atuais
A protection of social areas, especially housing and health is also very important. Structural changes are necessary: simply increasing contributions or reducing profits can reduce problems, but we will not eliminate you. It seems to be inevitable a further entry gives no labor market (obviously for the more evolved economies) and a withdrawal later. Measures designed to encourage better qualification and mobility of two serão úteis workers.
In addition, we have some time to understand that these alterations have effectively led to serious problems. Besides directing measures to confront them, we must try to increase the awareness of our politicians, business leaders and other opinion makers. In conjunction with two studies on social and economic aspects such as impacts on other areas, especially not the environment, they must be accelerated. Ainda has time.
BIBLIOGRAPHIC REFERENCES
• GASPARI, Elio. To Ditadura Envergonhada. São Paulo: Companhia das Letras, 2002.
• KELLAWAY, Lucy. Or return gives caneta tinteiro. Revista Exame-, São Paulo, edição de 25/12/2002.
• MOREIRA, Morvan de Mello. 2000. Envelhecimento da população Brasileira: Gerais Aspects. In O envenhecimento da população brazilian eo increase in longevity of life - Subsidies for policies oriented to being well-being, org. Laura L. Rodríguez Wong. Belo Horizonte: CEDEPLAR / UFMG and ABEP.
• OECD - Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (2001): Fiscal Implications of Aging: Projections of Age-Related Spending. Make it available, accessed on 01/12/2003.
• UN - UNFPA United Nations Population Fund: The State of the World Population 2001, Footprints and Milestones, Population and Environmental Change, 2001.
• UN - United Nations Population Division: Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Aging Populations ?, 2000.
• UN - United Nations Population Division: World Population Prospects - The 2002 Revision, 2003.
• UN - United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs: World Population Projections to 2150, 1998.
• UN - United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs: World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision, 2001.
• REYNOLDS, Paul D. et al (2000).: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, Executive Report 2000. Available at http://www.gemconsortium.org/, accessed 12/26/2002
